Paul Schulte, Advisor, Banking and Financial Services
August 22nd, 2019
Paul Schulte is the Founder and Managing Editor of Shulte Research based in Singapore. Paul's roles[...]
Global payments: Expansive growth, targeted opportunities
McKinsey&Company | Oct 2018
Robust growth makes payments a dynamic sector for incumbents—and a draw for new competitors.
Global payments revenues swelled to $1.9 trillion in 2017, the best single year of growth in the last five years (Exhibit 1). In last year’s report, we forecast that payments would become a $2 trillion business by 2020. Indeed, 2017’s market performance was so robust—its 11 percent growth rate fueled by continuing strength in the Asia–Pacific corridor—that global revenues are poised to surpass that $2 trillion threshold in 2018, and to approach $3 trillion within five years.
This rapid growth makes payments an expanding and increasingly important component of the broader banking industry. After an extended period in which payments generated roughly 30 percent of overall banking revenues, this metric has turned sharply upward. The continued prominence of payments in banking revenues might come as a surprise, given the continued pressure on payments fees—increasing competition and regulatory pressure—and ongoing low-interest-rate environments in many developed economies. In contrast, the trend makes sense, given healthy underlying fundamentals, including electronic-transaction and digital-commerce growth, and increasing cross-border activity. The growth of the payments component also points to the imperative for financial institutions to develop and continually refresh sound payments strategies to remain competitive in a market being reshaped by technology, new competition, and customer demands.
Not surprisingly, global payments revenue growth is dominated by the Asia–Pacific region, as has been the case for several years. At more than $900 billion, the region now accounts for nearly half of global payments revenue—compared with less than a quarter just six years earlier—as well as four-fifths of recent growth (Exhibit 2).
Remarkably, double-digit growth has continued even as the base of business has grown. The 20 percent growth rate for 2017, driven largely by liquidity factors, was Asia–Pacific’s strongest ever. Although our forecast calls for inevitable moderation, revenues in the region should continue to grow at low double-digit rates over the next five years, still considerably faster than any other region.
See: Large Global Payments Processor Unveils Airdropping Campaign Among Users
Latin America’s payments sector has been the fastest-growing among the major regions in the recent past (albeit off the smallest revenue pool); but growth rates flatlined abruptly in 2017. We expect the region to return to average annual growth of 8 percent over the next five years, second only to Asia–Pacific. While several Latin American countries continued to deliver double-digit growth in 2017, Brazil’s payments sector—the region’s dominant revenue engine—was hampered by regulatory action targeting credit-card rates (Latin America is reliant on interest for two-thirds of its card revenues). Credit-card annual percentage rates (APRs) in Brazil fell by more than 60 percentage points as a result of actions restricting the duration of high-cost revolving credit lines. The plan is expected to reduce delinquency rates but will also reduce average APRs, which remain among the world’s highest. Latin America’s underlying fundamentals remain solid, particularly for domestic payments.
Revenues in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) were similarly near flat, continuing a trend that has persisted for the past decade. The developing nations of Africa and Eastern Europe have generated high single-digit growth, offsetting nominal declines in Western Europe. Fee revenues have been the primary factor in the growth that has occurred, while a persistent environment of low interest rates—reaching negative levels in some cases—acts as a drag on growth. A return to a stable rate environment combined with continued transaction growth will result in revenue growth in the middle single digits for Western Europe until 2022, while Africa and Eastern Europe are likely to continue at their present pace. At the same time, individual companies in the European payments arena, such as Adyen and Wirecard, are finding growth areas that lead to substantial valuations.
On the surface, cross-border payments might appear to comprise a low single-digit share of global payments revenues. However, once liquidity factors such as net interest margins are excluded—as many institutions do in analyzing their own payments P&Ls—this growing category of transactions account for a larger share (roughly one-quarter) despite increasing competition from new entrants and solutions. Cross-border transactions also continue to generate unusually high margins for payments products and serve as a foundation for a broader array of client services.
After a period of tepid results, following the financial crisis, North America’s overall payments revenue growth returned to a healthy 7 percent in 2017, and is poised to continue at a similar pace over a five-year horizon. Credit cards comprise more than half of North American payments revenues, far more than any other geography, and will continue to grow faster than other products. More surprising is that the drag on North American revenue growth, from the temporary slowdown in credit-card usage following the financial crisis, has only recently lifted.
The jump in global revenues in 2017 is a direct reflection of an improved global economic scenario, reinforcing the close link between growth in GDP and payments revenue. According to World Bank data, in 2017, global nominal GDP grew at 6.0 percent year over year, compared with 1.5 percent in 2016. During the same periods, payments revenue increased in similar proportions, from 7 percent in 2016 to 11 percent in 2017.
See: Meet the fintech entrepreneur who thinks payments are boring
Comparing payments revenues across regions, we observe that payments revenue per unit of GDP (a measure of the cost of payments for consumers and businesses) in Asia–Pacific and Latin America is 50 to 60 percent higher than for Europe and North America. In addition, the share of electronic payments transactions in Asia–Pacific and Latin America is 60 to 65 percent lower than in Europe and North America. In other words, payments are significantly costlier for the economy in Asia–Pacific and Latin America, because the cost of processing cash and check payments is higher, as are the fees paid by consumers and businesses.
Transaction dynamics remain strong
Although the strong recent growth in global payments revenue has been broad-based and diverse, an increasing share is related to transactions. This is a positive development for banks and payments providers, as transaction revenues are more predictable and sustainable, and more readily controlled by financial-services firms. Transaction-based revenue now accounts for 40 percent of global payments revenue, up from 37 percent in 2012. We expect this share to grow to 46 percent by 2022, even in an improving rate scenario.
More specifically, while the overall number of transactions continues to increase, the true revenue driver is the electronification of transactions—namely, away from cash—which more than offsets the downward pressure on fees (Exhibit 3). Over the past five years, the share of the world’s transactions carried out in cash has fallen from 89 to 77 percent. At the same time, the share of combined debit- and credit-card use has nearly doubled, from 5 to 9 percent. The decline of cash usage globally is expected to be even more pronounced over the next five years, due to an increasing range of payments options, the push toward real-time payments, the growth of digital commerce, and continued regulatory focus on payments electronification.
Given that the Asia–Pacific region accounts for more than 60 percent of the world’s population, it is not surprising that it is responsible for two-thirds of global transactions. The fact that Asia–Pacific still lags behind other regions in overall electronification at only 21 percent (despite more than doubling since 2012) illustrates the region’s ongoing growth potential. The move away from cash, as witnessed in markets such as China, will serve as the single-largest cause of global electronification. The share of electronification in China has increased more than tenfold over the last five years, from 4 percent in 2012 to 34 percent in 2017.
See: Singapore consortium claims breakthrough in DLT payments project
Meanwhile, North America has become the first region to execute more than half of its transactions electronically. At 450 electronic transactions annually per capita, it far and away leads other regions on this dimension. Meanwhile, individual European countries, such as Sweden and Norway, are executing no more than 20 percent of their transactions in cash, while generating 520 noncash transactions per capita per year.
The shifting digital landscape
The growing popularity of alternative payments solutions, and digital commerce in general, further contributes to the electronification trend. Global digital commerce volume exceeded $3 trillion in 2017 and will more than double by 2022. Asia–Pacific already comprises more than half of this $3 trillion and, due to the fast-growing Chinese market, will increase its share to nearly 70 percent by 2022. Mobile commerce, including in-app payments and mobile browser payments, is the dominant factor driving strong digital commerce growth, due to rising smartphone adoption, an increasing shift toward online shopping, and improvements in network bandwidth. Mobile commerce accounts for 48 percent of digital-commerce sales globally as of 2017, and is forecasted to reach 70 percent by 2022 (tripling to $4.6 trillion).
Consumers and merchants alike are increasingly embracing app-based commerce and in-app payments, with retailers ramping up investments in mobile apps with innovative use cases to provide omnichannel shopping experiences for customers. Globally, mobile apps accounted for more than 30 percent of total digital-commerce volume in 2017, and they are expected to continue strong growth across all regions (Exhibit 4). Digital wallets are estimated to have added approximately 40 billion to global payments revenues in 2017.
The outlook for in-store commerce varies significantly by country and region: in countries with near-field-communication infrastructure, tap-and-pay will drive growth; in the United States, in-store app use will grow as consumer use of order-ahead increases; and in emerging markets, the introduction of new payments solutions will influence how people pay. In the United States, in-person use of digital wallets will increase at a 45 percent compound annual growth rate to reach nearly $400 billion in annual flows by 2022. Although most of this growth is expected to be on “pass through” wallets like Apple Pay, private-label wallets such as Starbucks and Walmart Pay—both of which have enjoyed impressive early adoption—will also continue to increase in popularity. Even with these gains, however, digital wallets will comprise less than 10 percent of US consumer in-person point-of-sale payments in 2022. Lack of ubiquitous merchant acceptance will remain a barrier, along with the continued percentage of consumers who do not know how to use their mobile phone to pay at the point of sale.
See: The lending revolution: How digital credit is changing banks from the inside
In the United Kingdom, a total of 38 million contactless transactions were conducted using a mobile device in 2016 (representing roughly $358 million in spending). While this is significant in absolute value, it accounts for only 1.2 percent of in-store payments, indicating a huge opportunity for growth. China leads on this front with 40 percent of in-person spending already on mobile digital wallets. However, unlike the United States, almost all of this is on closed-loop systems like Alipay and WeChat Pay. China’s ratio is projected to continue to increase to nearly 60 percent by 2022. Within the same region, Japan remains a largely untapped market. Research has found that close to 70 percent of Japanese consumers across all age groups still prefer to use cash when making in-store purchases, mainly due to security concerns with mobile payments. It is interesting to note, however, that despite the preference for cash, prepaid-card solutions like Suica have found high adoption in Japan. In the third section of this report, we look in more depth at the digital landscape.
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Read More
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FT Partners | Jan 2020 Executive Summary: The banking sector is experiencing a major shift globally, as Challenger Banks are becoming increasingly formidable competitors to traditional banks and have begun to capture significant market share. Furthermore, the lines between banks and other consumer financial services providers are blurring, with several alternative lenders and robo-advisors beginning to offer banking products to their customers. E-commerce / internet giants are also jumping into the fray with Google and Amazon, among others, beginning to offer banking products. In response to the emergence of Challenger Banks, a number of incumbent banks have launched their own FinTech brands, and traditional financial institutions will likely turn to FinTech solution providers in order to defend their turfs. Download this Jan 2020 FT Partners Fintech research (216 page PDF) -> Now The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in ...
Read More
Read More
South China Morning Post | Enoch Yiu | Jan 13, 2020 Hong Kong residents can expect to benefit from cheaper and better banking services with the launch of more virtual banks this year, according to high-profile speakers at the Asian Financial Forum. Their comments came as it was revealed the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has hit an important milestone in its efforts to promote financial technology (fintech). Half the population of the city has now signed up to its Faster Payment System, which enables the free transfer of money between bank accounts via mobile phone. The development shows Hong Kong is moving quickly into a new era of branchless banking, a shift that brings up challenges for traditional lenders which must innovate to cope with the competition, said officials at the annual conference held by the Hong Kong government. “The Faster Payment System is an important move for the city to develop its fintech. The system has been very popular with the Hong Kong public,” said James Lau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury during a panel discussion at the forum on Monday. See: Banks have lost a quarter of the payments franchise to new players Hong Kong being ...
Read More
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Reuters | Julie Zhu, Kane Wu, Zhang Yan | Jan 17, 2020 HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - Ant Financial [ANTFIN.UL] shares are being offered privately at levels which value the Chinese financial giant at $200 billion, two people with knowledge of the discussions said, lifting it up the ranks of the most valuable unlisted companies. Alibaba affiliate Ant, which had an implied valuation of $150 billion during a 2018 fundraising, is preparing to step up plans for eventually going public in Hong Kong and mainland China, three other sources told Reuters. See: Exclusive: Ant Financial shifts focus from finance to tech services: sources Speculation has grown that Ant, the world’s largest so-called “unicorn” — a newly-formed unlisted tech firm valued at $1 billion or more — is working toward an IPO this year. Its advisers have recently approached potential buyers of the unlisted shares, the first two people said, as Ant seeks to tidy up its shareholder base ahead of any listing. An Ant Financial spokesman said the company does not have a plan or timetable for an intial public offering (IPO). Small holdings of Ant shares were traded in the secondary market at a $200 billion valuation late last year, another ...
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Borden Ladner Gervais LLP | Stephen J. Redican, Robert Dawkins, Ross McGowan and Alexandra Nicol | Jan 9, 2020 The Canadian financial services industry is at the threshold of change. Regulatory overhaul, the ubiquity of online services, and technological innovation and disruption will affect all players—from banks to FinTech start-ups. Open banking will introduce new opportunities and business models for the financial services industry and new services from FinTech entrants to the market—but these opportunities come with unprecedented risks and operational requirements for a banking system that prides itself on stability. Given Canada's unique financial system and constitutional structure, the implementation of open banking won't look the same as it has in the U.K., the EU or Australia, where its introduction is already underway. See: Why Canada must be open to open banking We spoke with a diverse group of leaders from across the Canadian financial services industry to understand open banking's current and emerging issues: What do you see changing? How will your organizations fit into the new landscape? What might a made-in-Canada model of open banking look like for consumers and industry? Roundtable Participants Anne Butler Chief Legal Officer and Head of Policy and Research, Payments Canada "If ...
Read More
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CSA | Jan 16, 2020 Montreal - The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) today published Staff Notice 21-327 Guidance on the Application of Securities Legislation to Entities Facilitating the Trading of Crypto Assets, to help these entities to determine situations where securities legislation may or may not apply. “The evolving landscape of the industry prompts us to clarify our regulatory framework so as to better support fintech businesses seeking to offer innovative products, services and applications in Canada,” said Louis Morisset, CSA Chair and President and CEO of the Autorité des marchés financiers. “As we continue to consider the comments and responses to the consultation we launched last year, the staff notice published today will help platform operators to determine whether their activities are subject to securities legislation.” The notice describes situations where securities legislation will and will not apply. For example, securities legislation may apply to platforms that facilitate the buying and selling of crypto assets that are commodities, because the user’s contractual right to the crypto asset may itself constitute a derivative, a security or both. The relevant determination will depend on the facts and circumstances, including the obligations and intention to provide immediate delivery of the crypto asset. The ...
Read More
Read More
Vox Recode | Shirin Ghaffary | Jan 7, 2020 Facebook’s new rules will still allow controversial fake videos like the one of Nancy Pelosi that made her appear to be drunk. Facebook announced late Monday that it would ban “deepfakes,” which are AI-manipulated videos that distort reality, often simulating real people in fake situations. The social media giant announced the changes in a company executive blog post, saying it will remove deepfakes and other types of heavily manipulated media from its platform. Specifically, the company laid out two main criteria for removing content under the new rules. The first is that the company will remove content posted on Facebook if has been edited in ways that would “likely mislead someone into thinking a subject of the video said words that they did not actually say,” according to the post written by Monika Bickert, Facebook’s vice president of global policy management. Secondly, the platform will ban media if it’s the product of AI or machine learning that “merges, replaces, or superimposes content onto a video, making it appear to be authentic.” Facebook came under fire last year for allowing a manipulated video of Speaker Nancy Pelosi that made it appear as ...
Read More
Read More
CNBC | Hugh Son | Jan 13, 2020 Key Points When Goldman Sachs released a long-awaited app for customers of its Marcus consumer bank last week, it did so with little fanfare or hype. But the app will one day serve as the bank’s storefront and one-stop shop for an array of digital banking services, according to Adam Dell, a Goldman Sachs partner and head of product at Marcus. “There are two kinds of incumbent banks,” Dell told the audience at a financial conference in June. “There are banks that are screwed, and there are banks that don’t know they’re screwed.” When Goldman Sachs released a long-awaited app for customers of its Marcus consumer bank last week, it did so with little fanfare or hype. Unlike the intense attention on its last retail product, the Apple Card, the launch of the bank’s Marcus app was heralded by little more than a smattering of user reviews. See: JPMorgan has a plan to help Amazon and Airbnb look more like banks But the app may prove to be far more important to Goldman than its credit card partnership with Apple. That’s because the portal, which today lets customers check balances and set ...
Read More
Read More
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