Paul Schulte, Advisor, Banking and Financial Services
August 22nd, 2019
Paul Schulte is the Founder and Managing Editor of Shulte Research based in Singapore. Paul's roles[...]
Global payments: Expansive growth, targeted opportunities
McKinsey&Company | Oct 2018
Robust growth makes payments a dynamic sector for incumbents—and a draw for new competitors.
Global payments revenues swelled to $1.9 trillion in 2017, the best single year of growth in the last five years (Exhibit 1). In last year’s report, we forecast that payments would become a $2 trillion business by 2020. Indeed, 2017’s market performance was so robust—its 11 percent growth rate fueled by continuing strength in the Asia–Pacific corridor—that global revenues are poised to surpass that $2 trillion threshold in 2018, and to approach $3 trillion within five years.
This rapid growth makes payments an expanding and increasingly important component of the broader banking industry. After an extended period in which payments generated roughly 30 percent of overall banking revenues, this metric has turned sharply upward. The continued prominence of payments in banking revenues might come as a surprise, given the continued pressure on payments fees—increasing competition and regulatory pressure—and ongoing low-interest-rate environments in many developed economies. In contrast, the trend makes sense, given healthy underlying fundamentals, including electronic-transaction and digital-commerce growth, and increasing cross-border activity. The growth of the payments component also points to the imperative for financial institutions to develop and continually refresh sound payments strategies to remain competitive in a market being reshaped by technology, new competition, and customer demands.
Not surprisingly, global payments revenue growth is dominated by the Asia–Pacific region, as has been the case for several years. At more than $900 billion, the region now accounts for nearly half of global payments revenue—compared with less than a quarter just six years earlier—as well as four-fifths of recent growth (Exhibit 2).
Remarkably, double-digit growth has continued even as the base of business has grown. The 20 percent growth rate for 2017, driven largely by liquidity factors, was Asia–Pacific’s strongest ever. Although our forecast calls for inevitable moderation, revenues in the region should continue to grow at low double-digit rates over the next five years, still considerably faster than any other region.
See: Large Global Payments Processor Unveils Airdropping Campaign Among Users
Latin America’s payments sector has been the fastest-growing among the major regions in the recent past (albeit off the smallest revenue pool); but growth rates flatlined abruptly in 2017. We expect the region to return to average annual growth of 8 percent over the next five years, second only to Asia–Pacific. While several Latin American countries continued to deliver double-digit growth in 2017, Brazil’s payments sector—the region’s dominant revenue engine—was hampered by regulatory action targeting credit-card rates (Latin America is reliant on interest for two-thirds of its card revenues). Credit-card annual percentage rates (APRs) in Brazil fell by more than 60 percentage points as a result of actions restricting the duration of high-cost revolving credit lines. The plan is expected to reduce delinquency rates but will also reduce average APRs, which remain among the world’s highest. Latin America’s underlying fundamentals remain solid, particularly for domestic payments.
Revenues in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) were similarly near flat, continuing a trend that has persisted for the past decade. The developing nations of Africa and Eastern Europe have generated high single-digit growth, offsetting nominal declines in Western Europe. Fee revenues have been the primary factor in the growth that has occurred, while a persistent environment of low interest rates—reaching negative levels in some cases—acts as a drag on growth. A return to a stable rate environment combined with continued transaction growth will result in revenue growth in the middle single digits for Western Europe until 2022, while Africa and Eastern Europe are likely to continue at their present pace. At the same time, individual companies in the European payments arena, such as Adyen and Wirecard, are finding growth areas that lead to substantial valuations.
On the surface, cross-border payments might appear to comprise a low single-digit share of global payments revenues. However, once liquidity factors such as net interest margins are excluded—as many institutions do in analyzing their own payments P&Ls—this growing category of transactions account for a larger share (roughly one-quarter) despite increasing competition from new entrants and solutions. Cross-border transactions also continue to generate unusually high margins for payments products and serve as a foundation for a broader array of client services.
After a period of tepid results, following the financial crisis, North America’s overall payments revenue growth returned to a healthy 7 percent in 2017, and is poised to continue at a similar pace over a five-year horizon. Credit cards comprise more than half of North American payments revenues, far more than any other geography, and will continue to grow faster than other products. More surprising is that the drag on North American revenue growth, from the temporary slowdown in credit-card usage following the financial crisis, has only recently lifted.
The jump in global revenues in 2017 is a direct reflection of an improved global economic scenario, reinforcing the close link between growth in GDP and payments revenue. According to World Bank data, in 2017, global nominal GDP grew at 6.0 percent year over year, compared with 1.5 percent in 2016. During the same periods, payments revenue increased in similar proportions, from 7 percent in 2016 to 11 percent in 2017.
See: Meet the fintech entrepreneur who thinks payments are boring
Comparing payments revenues across regions, we observe that payments revenue per unit of GDP (a measure of the cost of payments for consumers and businesses) in Asia–Pacific and Latin America is 50 to 60 percent higher than for Europe and North America. In addition, the share of electronic payments transactions in Asia–Pacific and Latin America is 60 to 65 percent lower than in Europe and North America. In other words, payments are significantly costlier for the economy in Asia–Pacific and Latin America, because the cost of processing cash and check payments is higher, as are the fees paid by consumers and businesses.
Transaction dynamics remain strong
Although the strong recent growth in global payments revenue has been broad-based and diverse, an increasing share is related to transactions. This is a positive development for banks and payments providers, as transaction revenues are more predictable and sustainable, and more readily controlled by financial-services firms. Transaction-based revenue now accounts for 40 percent of global payments revenue, up from 37 percent in 2012. We expect this share to grow to 46 percent by 2022, even in an improving rate scenario.
More specifically, while the overall number of transactions continues to increase, the true revenue driver is the electronification of transactions—namely, away from cash—which more than offsets the downward pressure on fees (Exhibit 3). Over the past five years, the share of the world’s transactions carried out in cash has fallen from 89 to 77 percent. At the same time, the share of combined debit- and credit-card use has nearly doubled, from 5 to 9 percent. The decline of cash usage globally is expected to be even more pronounced over the next five years, due to an increasing range of payments options, the push toward real-time payments, the growth of digital commerce, and continued regulatory focus on payments electronification.
Given that the Asia–Pacific region accounts for more than 60 percent of the world’s population, it is not surprising that it is responsible for two-thirds of global transactions. The fact that Asia–Pacific still lags behind other regions in overall electronification at only 21 percent (despite more than doubling since 2012) illustrates the region’s ongoing growth potential. The move away from cash, as witnessed in markets such as China, will serve as the single-largest cause of global electronification. The share of electronification in China has increased more than tenfold over the last five years, from 4 percent in 2012 to 34 percent in 2017.
See: Singapore consortium claims breakthrough in DLT payments project
Meanwhile, North America has become the first region to execute more than half of its transactions electronically. At 450 electronic transactions annually per capita, it far and away leads other regions on this dimension. Meanwhile, individual European countries, such as Sweden and Norway, are executing no more than 20 percent of their transactions in cash, while generating 520 noncash transactions per capita per year.
The shifting digital landscape
The growing popularity of alternative payments solutions, and digital commerce in general, further contributes to the electronification trend. Global digital commerce volume exceeded $3 trillion in 2017 and will more than double by 2022. Asia–Pacific already comprises more than half of this $3 trillion and, due to the fast-growing Chinese market, will increase its share to nearly 70 percent by 2022. Mobile commerce, including in-app payments and mobile browser payments, is the dominant factor driving strong digital commerce growth, due to rising smartphone adoption, an increasing shift toward online shopping, and improvements in network bandwidth. Mobile commerce accounts for 48 percent of digital-commerce sales globally as of 2017, and is forecasted to reach 70 percent by 2022 (tripling to $4.6 trillion).
Consumers and merchants alike are increasingly embracing app-based commerce and in-app payments, with retailers ramping up investments in mobile apps with innovative use cases to provide omnichannel shopping experiences for customers. Globally, mobile apps accounted for more than 30 percent of total digital-commerce volume in 2017, and they are expected to continue strong growth across all regions (Exhibit 4). Digital wallets are estimated to have added approximately 40 billion to global payments revenues in 2017.
The outlook for in-store commerce varies significantly by country and region: in countries with near-field-communication infrastructure, tap-and-pay will drive growth; in the United States, in-store app use will grow as consumer use of order-ahead increases; and in emerging markets, the introduction of new payments solutions will influence how people pay. In the United States, in-person use of digital wallets will increase at a 45 percent compound annual growth rate to reach nearly $400 billion in annual flows by 2022. Although most of this growth is expected to be on “pass through” wallets like Apple Pay, private-label wallets such as Starbucks and Walmart Pay—both of which have enjoyed impressive early adoption—will also continue to increase in popularity. Even with these gains, however, digital wallets will comprise less than 10 percent of US consumer in-person point-of-sale payments in 2022. Lack of ubiquitous merchant acceptance will remain a barrier, along with the continued percentage of consumers who do not know how to use their mobile phone to pay at the point of sale.
See: The lending revolution: How digital credit is changing banks from the inside
In the United Kingdom, a total of 38 million contactless transactions were conducted using a mobile device in 2016 (representing roughly $358 million in spending). While this is significant in absolute value, it accounts for only 1.2 percent of in-store payments, indicating a huge opportunity for growth. China leads on this front with 40 percent of in-person spending already on mobile digital wallets. However, unlike the United States, almost all of this is on closed-loop systems like Alipay and WeChat Pay. China’s ratio is projected to continue to increase to nearly 60 percent by 2022. Within the same region, Japan remains a largely untapped market. Research has found that close to 70 percent of Japanese consumers across all age groups still prefer to use cash when making in-store purchases, mainly due to security concerns with mobile payments. It is interesting to note, however, that despite the preference for cash, prepaid-card solutions like Suica have found high adoption in Japan. In the third section of this report, we look in more depth at the digital landscape.
Continue to the full article --> here
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Cointelegraph | Anatol Hooper | Dec 5, 2019 Blockchain is transforming the financial industry right before our eyes, with many market onlookers anticipating a complete replacement of existing payment, trading and banking infrastructures. Blockchain and finance seem like the perfect match, but there are other sectors, for which the technology may play a game-changing role. For one particular industry, the latter adjective isn’t figurative at all, because blockchain can do just that – change the gaming market. This is a unique chance for investors, and it seems like they don’t want to miss it. During the last few years, the gaming industry has been pampered with several innovations at once – virtual reality (VR), augmented reality and artificial intelligence. But it is blockchain that can have the greatest contribution, bringing more transparency and trust to the gaming space. Investors don’t want to be simple observers and are jumping on the blockchain gaming bandwagon. For them, the technology has a disruptive potential that can be converted into profitable deals. Thus, they consider this emerging technology to be a breakthrough in the gaming industry. See: Podcast Ep27-Mar 1: Blockchain Gaming and Esports with Shidan Gouran Transforming gaming at all levels But how can ...
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Brookings Institution | Dec 4, 2019 Facial recognition technology has raised many questions about privacy, surveillance, and bias. Algorithms can identify faces but do so in ways that threaten privacy and introduce biases. Already, several cities have called for limits on the use of facial recognition by local law enforcement officials. Now, a bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate proposes new guardrails for the use of facial recognition technology by federal law enforcement agencies. See: Smart Cities Offer Promises and Concerns Over Privacy On Thursday, December 5, the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings will feature Senators Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), who introduced the bipartisan Facial Recognition Technology Warrant Act this past November. The discussion will focus on how placing procedural safeguards on facial recognition technology, such as requiring warrants and limiting the duration of surveillance, can alleviate concerns over security and privacy while encouraging innovation. Thursday, Dec 05, 2019 8:45 AM - 9:30 AM EST Brookings Institution Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 More information on registering for the Webcast or attending --> here The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry ...
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The UK Provides Legal Certainty For Smart Contracts And Cryptoassets In Its Landmark Legal Statement
Clyde & Co | Karen Boto | Nov 26, 2019 Earlier this week the UK Jurisdiction Taskforce (UKJT), part of the LawTech Delivery Panel of senior solicitors and barristers headed by Chancellor of the High Court, Sir Geoffrey Vos, published a landmark "Legal Statement" providing long awaited clarity as to how cryptocurrencies, distributed ledger technology (DLT) and smart contracts might be treated under English law. The statement follows several rounds of public and private consultation, conducted to address the perceived legal uncertainties of these innovative technologies. For the first time, the Panel has recognised that cryptoassets, including but not limited to, digital currencies, can be treated as property in principle, and that smart contracts are capable of satisfying the requirements of contracts in English law, making them enforceable by the Courts. Highlights Below - What is a cryptoasset? In summary, the Panel explains that a cryptoasset is defined by reference to the rules of the system within which it exists. It is typically represented by a pair of data parameters: one public (disclosed to all participants in the system) and one private. The public parameter contains encoded information about the asset, such as its ownership, value and transaction history. The ...
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Cointelegraph | Anatol Hooper | Dec 5, 2019 Blockchain is transforming the financial industry right before our eyes, with many market onlookers anticipating a complete replacement of existing payment, trading and banking infrastructures. Blockchain and finance seem like the perfect match, but there are other sectors, for which the technology may play a game-changing role. For one particular industry, the latter adjective isn’t figurative at all, because blockchain can do just that – change the gaming market. This is a unique chance for investors, and it seems like they don’t want to miss it. During the last few years, the gaming industry has been pampered with several innovations at once – virtual reality (VR), augmented reality and artificial intelligence. But it is blockchain that can have the greatest contribution, bringing more transparency and trust to the gaming space. Investors don’t want to be simple observers and are jumping on the blockchain gaming bandwagon. For them, the technology has a disruptive potential that can be converted into profitable deals. Thus, they consider this emerging technology to be a breakthrough in the gaming industry. See: Podcast Ep27-Mar 1: Blockchain Gaming and Esports with Shidan Gouran Transforming gaming at all levels But how can ...
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Financial Post | Julius Melnitzer | Dec 5, 2019 Canadian banks have become 'incubators and accelerators' for tech talent, helping to get new innovations to market more quickly For all the buzz about the disruption that’s occurring in Canada’s financial services sector, the country ranks a lowly 23 among 27 countries in its market adoption of fintech. The information appears in an infographic prepared by Fortunly, an online knowledge base and financial product review-website. The charts examine the significant disruption that fintech solutions are causing in the world of finance, including mobile wallets, cash transaction systems, the rise of blockchain currencies and artificial intelligence. See: A major UK lender just launched a digital bank to compete with Monzo and Revolut | Interview with Bó CEO Which is not to say that Canada is standing still. The country’s market adoption rate of fintech stands at 50 per cent, not insignificant but still way behind China and India, leading the pack at 87 per cent. Rounding out the top 10 are Russia and South Africa, Colombia, Peru, Netherlands, Mexico, and Ireland and the United Kingdom. Canada’s adoption rate, however, is ahead of that in the United States, France and Japan. Globally, adoption ...
Read More
Read More
Entrepreneur | Murray Newlands | Dec 3, 2019 You can raise a million, too. Here's how to be successful with equity crowdfunding. There's an art to raising money for a startup. I recently joined Commerce AI as Chief Strategy Officer, and my role has two main functions: fundraising and marketing. My goal in the first 30 days was to raise a million dollars from crowdfunding. This can be a viable goal for your company as well. Here’s how. Equity crowdfunding Under the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) act, there are a number of routes to crowdfunding. The starting point is a Form C round, which in essence means you can raise $1.07 million per year -- yes per year -- from non-accredited investors. This means anyone can invest over $250 at a time. This time we worked with accredited investors only but most people will start with a Form C round. Architecting a New World: Investment Crowdfunding and Digital Assets This model is like Kickstarter, but you give backers equity rather than a product. The equity can be a convertible note, a safe note or a fixed price round. If your goal is to raise more than $107,000, an independent CPA ...
Read More
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Novacap | Release | Dec 3, 2019 Novacap is the first private equity firm in Canada to launch a fund dedicated to financial services. MONTREAL, Dec. 3, 2019 /PRNewswire/ - Novacap, one of Canada's leading private equity firms, announced the introduction of a new sector fund and its first closing. Novacap Financial Services I (the "Fund") gathered initial commitments of C$260 million, a strong start toward its target of C$500 million. A second group of institutional investors is expected to close in Q1 2020. Driven by strong demand from new and existing investors, the Fund will be managed by three seasoned executives: Marcel Larochelle, as Managing Partner, as well as Rajiv Bahl and Alain Miquelon as Senior Partners. With a dedicated investment team, they will fully leverage Novacap's infrastructure and apply Novacap's proven investment methodology. Novacap Financial Services I aims to invest in mid-market companies established in North America, with a focus on Canada, with strong growth potential. Four segments are of particular interest: 1-specialty insurance and distribution, 2-asset and wealth management, 3-alternative lending and 4-financial infrastructure. The Fund will make equity investments in order to support companies with their organic growth initiatives and to drive strategic acquisitions. See: Portag3 Ventures ...
Read More
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Brookings Institution | Dec 4, 2019 Facial recognition technology has raised many questions about privacy, surveillance, and bias. Algorithms can identify faces but do so in ways that threaten privacy and introduce biases. Already, several cities have called for limits on the use of facial recognition by local law enforcement officials. Now, a bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate proposes new guardrails for the use of facial recognition technology by federal law enforcement agencies. See: Smart Cities Offer Promises and Concerns Over Privacy On Thursday, December 5, the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings will feature Senators Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), who introduced the bipartisan Facial Recognition Technology Warrant Act this past November. The discussion will focus on how placing procedural safeguards on facial recognition technology, such as requiring warrants and limiting the duration of surveillance, can alleviate concerns over security and privacy while encouraging innovation. Thursday, Dec 05, 2019 8:45 AM - 9:30 AM EST Brookings Institution Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 More information on registering for the Webcast or attending --> here The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry ...
Read More
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Wealthsimple | Isabelle Kirkwood | Dec 2, 2019 Toronto-based FinTech startup Wealthsimple is separating its direct to consumer and Wealthsimple for Advisors businesses and will transition the advisor-focused offering to a new company, BetaKit has learned. “We’re currently focused on identifying the right partner to support your business on a future platform.” Wealthsimple for Advisors is the company’s automated management platform targeted toward financial planners, investment advisors, portfolio managers, and dealers. The company announced the news to separate the entities in an email obtained by BetaKit and sent to clients on Monday. Wealthsimple plans to announce the move on Tuesday morning. In a statement to BetaKit, the company noted that Wealthsimple for Advisors will transition in the coming months, and is currently looking for partners to support advisors on a new platform. See: Wealthsimple launching zero-commission trading platform “We are at a pivotal stage in our business where we have a very real, very unique, once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform financial services for Canadians,” said Michael Katchen, co-founder and CEO of Wealthsimple, in the statement to BetaKit. “To take full advantage of that opportunity, we need to be laser-focused on delivering transparent, accessible financial services to consumers, both directly and in ...
Read More
Read More
OECD | Mats Isaksson | Nov 27, 2019 27/11/2019 - Asia is rapidly growing into the world’s largest stock market. In 2018, 51% of all equity capital raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) went to Asian companies. Today more than half of the world’s listed companies are from Asia. This development is reshaping global stock market in several ways, according to a new OECD report: Households outside of Asia have increased their investments in Asian companies through pension funds, mutual funds and other intermediaries; it is increasingly common that listed companies are majority owned by the public sector or by other private companies; and smaller growth companies from Asia are using capital markets to raise money more extensively than smaller companies from the rest of the world. See: Social equity must be central to urban tech innovations OECD Equity Market Review of Asia 2019 says that Asian non-financial companies raised an annual average of USD 67 billion during the last decade. This means that they surpassed the combined amount of equity raised by companies from Europe and the United States. The development in Asia is largely due to a significant increase in the use of public equity markets by companies ...
Read More
Read More
TechCrunch | Darrell Etherington | Dec 3, 2019 Canadian venture capital firm Portag3 Ventures has closed a second fund focused on investing in fintech startups, with final commitments from institutional and strategic LPs totally $427 million CAD (around $320 million USD). The fund will focus on early-stage investments, and it’ll look to invest in companies globally, but with a particular focus on Canada, the U.S., Europe and some markets in the Asia-Pacific region. “We’re on a mission to build global champions from a Canadian base,” Portag3 CEO Adam Felesky told TechCrunch regarding the firm’s base of operations and investment targets. “Canada has the talent, the expertise and one of the biggest markets in the world directly to our south. All the ingredients are there, we just need more success stories — and we are on our way to getting them. Success will breed more success. In order to understand what it takes to succeed globally, you need to invest and work with the best of the best from around the world. Many of the early fintech unicorns are based in Europe on the back of substantive, helpful policy changes. Canada needs to learn from these examples so we get the ...
Read More
Read More
CBC | BMO Release | Dec 3, 2019 BMO says restructuring charge to affect about 5% of global workforce, without offering specifics The Bank of Montreal's fourth-quarter profit fell to $1.19 billion as it was hit by a restructuring charge related primarily to severance that will affect about five per cent of its global workforce. The bank said Tuesday the quarter ended Oct. 31 included a $357-million restructuring charge as a result of a decision to accelerate delivery of digitization initiatives and simplification of the way it does business. Part of reason for the move was lower margins from its personal and commercial banking business in the United States as a result of lower interest rates, as well as slower U.S. economic growth expected next year, officials said. BMO didn't reveal details about where or when the job cuts will occur, but it had about 45,513 employees at the end of October. A five per cent cut suggests about 2,275 jobs would be affected. Based on the geographic breakdown of BMO's workforce, the restructuring could affect roughly 1,500 jobs in Canada and 775 in the United States. See: Alternative Lenders Continue to Steal Business From Banks Banks have lost a ...
Read More
Read More
The UK Provides Legal Certainty For Smart Contracts And Cryptoassets In Its Landmark Legal Statement
Clyde & Co | Karen Boto | Nov 26, 2019 Earlier this week the UK Jurisdiction Taskforce (UKJT), part of the LawTech Delivery Panel of senior solicitors and barristers headed by Chancellor of the High Court, Sir Geoffrey Vos, published a landmark "Legal Statement" providing long awaited clarity as to how cryptocurrencies, distributed ledger technology (DLT) and smart contracts might be treated under English law. The statement follows several rounds of public and private consultation, conducted to address the perceived legal uncertainties of these innovative technologies. For the first time, the Panel has recognised that cryptoassets, including but not limited to, digital currencies, can be treated as property in principle, and that smart contracts are capable of satisfying the requirements of contracts in English law, making them enforceable by the Courts. Highlights Below - What is a cryptoasset? In summary, the Panel explains that a cryptoasset is defined by reference to the rules of the system within which it exists. It is typically represented by a pair of data parameters: one public (disclosed to all participants in the system) and one private. The public parameter contains encoded information about the asset, such as its ownership, value and transaction history. The ...
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