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Is the BRICS Alternative Currency Plan Falling Apart?

BRICS | Dec 3, 2024

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BRICS Nations Weigh Gains and Risks as New Currency Idea Faces Challenges

The original BRICS member nations including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa previously announced their bold vision to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar by creating a shared currency.  The plan hatched and promised an alternative currency and payment system that would be free from the influence of U.S. sanctions and monetary policy.

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Lord Lamont of Lerwick stated:

"If it ever happened, it would be a major threat to the Western-led financial system, but above all it would make it impossible for the West to impose sanctions on countries like Russia, China or Iran or other malign countries."

But is the dream now unravelling?

Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs

Just a few days ago, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced that American wasn't going to sit by idly while BRICS trading bloc tries to circumvent the U.S. dollar and threatened to implement a 100% tariff on BRICS nations if they launch an alternative currency.  He also demanded commitment from these countries that that would and abandon any de-dollarization efforts.

Growing Divide Among BRICS Members

Russia isn’t backing down arguing that Trump's threats could backfire by pushing even more countries to consider alternatives other than the dollar.

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Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman:

"[The dollar is losing its appeal as a reserve currency for many countries, a trend that is gathering pace].  More and more countries are switching to the use of national currencies in their trade and foreign economic activities. If the U.S. uses force, as they say economic force, to compel countries to use the dollar it will further strengthen the trend of switching to national currencies (in international trade)."

Recent reports say that some BRICS members may be stepping back from the initiative due to varying economies and conflicting monetary policies that are anticipated to be difficult to overcome.  Each country has unique economic needs so a one size fits all approach to a currency solution is tricky.  For example, China is an economic powerhouse and may prioritize its own currency at the expense of smaller nations.

What Does Each BRICS Nation Stand to Gain?

Is it a zero sum game with a clear winner and loser?

China is best positioned to benefit if a BRICS currency takes off.  They are the largest economy in the BRICS trading bloc and Beijing could use the initiative as a stepping stone to boost the yuan's role in global trade.  China is strategically looking to increase its global influence so its beyond just economics.  Critics are concerned that such dominance by China would come at the expense of smaller BRICS members.

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Russia, currently at war with the Ukraine and constantly at loggerheads with the U.S. has a lot riding on the idea of an alternative BRICS currency.  Russia is currently facing a litany of sanctions and economic isolation so an alternative to the U.S. dollar could help stabilize Russia's economy and offer it a better hand on the geopolitical global stage.  Conversely, a failed BRICS currency could force Russia into a rock and a hard place.

India is being more cautious as it understands that while a BRICS currency may make trading easier within a bloc, it could give China more control.  India has its own massively growing economy and aspirations so it's walking a fine line that balances cooperation while protecting its independence.

For Brazil and South Africa the risks are high with smaller rewards since their economies are much smaller and they may struggle to stay competitive in a system dominated by China and Russia.  So while they may be benefits for a larger block, their smaller interests could easily get pushed to the side so the benefits aren't as clear nor are they guaranteed.  Having said that Brazil has been a strong advocate for a BRICS currency system over the dollar.

Global Financial Shift in the Making

While the U.S. dollar is still dominant, cracks are appearing as some countries are seeking alternatives to U.S. economic sanctions or geopolitical strategies.  Since trading nations are deeply integrated and affect global markets, any significant changes to currency dynamics could have serious global impact.  It could appear as shifting exchanges rates, new supply chains / trade flows and different financial alliances.

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Companies and policymakers need to remain agile.  Even if the BRICS currency initiative fails, its a movement that gained momentum and certainly a trend that the world cannot ignore.


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