Mahi Sall, Advisor, Fintech-Bank Partnerships, Payments and Financial Inclusivity
January 25th, 2023
Mahi Sall is the CEO & Founder of FinXpair, a Berlin-based strategic advisory boutique firm focu[...]
Kraken Crypto report and On-Chain Analysis: SHOKTOBER
Kraken Blog | Oct 28, 2021
After a predictably underwhelming September in the crypto markets, history was made in October as BTC hit new all-time highs.
As foreshadowed in last month’s Crypto On-Chain Digest, End of Summer Sale, data indicates that a supply shock (driven by long-term holders) contributed to BTC’s rise to record levels.
In Kraken Intelligence’s latest Crypto On-Chain Digest, S H O C K T O B E R, the team further analyzes the impact of BTC’s supply shock, how whales and long-term holders are leading the charge and why on-chain metrics suggest that the bull run still has significant upside.
October 2021 Takeaways
- As foreshadowed in our September On-Chain Digest: End of Summer Sale, data suggests a supply shock appears to have contributed to BTC gaining more than +50% month-to-date. Despite the latest rally, our findings indicate there has been little profit-taking from long-term holders.
- 1-year revived supply, which reflects long-term holder activity, supports the observation that holders are contributing to BTC’s supply shock; on October 18th, BTC’s 1-year revived supply fell to ₿2,293.5, the lowest level since August when BTC was trading at about $48,000.
- BTC’s HODL Waves shows that the number of coins that haven’t moved in the past 6 months (young coins) recently hit a 3-year low of 25.49%, which suggests that long-term holders held through September softness and October ’s strength.
See: Wealthsimple adds crypto portfolios to group-retirement plans
- Miner supply points to further holding amongst mining pools, while individual miners realized a relatively modest amount of profit.
- Validating the uptrend and highlighting strong demand for BTC, the excitement in the market is evident across several metrics and indicators. Renewed demand for BTC is increasingly clear when looking at active addresses, new addresses, transaction count, velocity, and other metrics; since September, active addresses, new addresses, transaction count, and 1-year active supply velocity have risen +10.3%, +4.7%, +10.5%, and +4.9%, respectively. Data indicates that much of this jump in network activity is attributable to BTC “whales.”
- BTC’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), MVRV Z-Score, and exchange net position suggest that the bull market cycle may have further room to run despite BTC reaching new all-time highs.
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