When the Tide Goes Out: Big Questions for Crypto in 2019
Coindesk | Gary Gensler | Dec 17, 2018
Gary Gensler is a former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under President Barack Obama, a Senior advisor to the MIT Media Lab Digital Currency Initiative and Senior Lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he currently teaches several classes on blockchain technology and crypto finance.
After this year’s wild market ride and so many failed projects, what might Satoshi Nakamoto’s innovative “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” mean for money and finance in 2019 and beyond?
Satoshi’s innovation – the use of append-only timestamped logs, secured by cryptography, amongst multiple parties, forming consensus on a shared ledger – needs to be taken seriously. The resulting blockchains of data can form widely verifiable peer-to-peer databases.
For any chance of a lasting role in the long evolution of money, though, blockchain applications and crypto assets have to deliver real economic results for users. And while bringing the crypto finance markets within public policy norms is critical, the greatest challenge remains the seriousness of commercial use cases.
A bunch of hype masquerading as fact won’t do it.
What We’ve Learned
Blockchain technology and crypto tokens provide an alternative means to move value on the Internet without relying upon a central intermediary. They promise the potential to lower verification and networking costs, ranging from censorship, privacy, reconciliation and settlement costs to the costs of jump starting and maintaining a network.
These features tie blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies directly to the essential plumbing of the financial sector, which at its core has the role of efficiently moving, allocating and pricing money and risk within an economy. It could lower costs, risks and economic rents in the financial system, which represents 7.5 percent of U.S. GDP.
See: Experts predict the five big fintech trends of 2019
To do so, though, blockchain technology must address its many technical and commercial challenges – scalability, efficiency, privacy, security, interoperability and governance. Industry reforms and regulations also must bring order to the markets surrounding this technology, especially for crypto exchanges and initial coin offerings.
In the meantime, the financial sector is mainly exploring private blockchain applications – without native tokens – built on software such as Hyperledger Fabric, R3 Corda or Quorum.
Any use case’s value proposition needs to be rigorously compared with simply using a traditional data base. In particular, any token offering must address how it will sustainably lower verification or networking costs – how such crypto asset benefits users more than simply using broadly accepted fiat currencies. While money is but a social construct, its history tells us that there are overwhelming network benefits when a currency is widely used and accepted for all three roles of money – as a unit of account, medium of exchange and store of value.
In essence, how might any blockchain technology project or any initial coin offering’s (‘ICO’) proposed token be more than simply a means to raise cheap money from the public? In 2019 and beyond, venture capitalists, large incumbents and crypto investors will likely be more discerning and rigorous in their investments and projects.
Public Policy Frameworks
The crypto finance markets can only gain public confidence and reach their potential by coming within long-established public policy frameworks. As with any other technology, we must guard against illicit activities, such as tax evasion, money laundering, terrorist financing and avoiding sanctions.
We must promote fair and open competition while ensuring for financial stability. We must protect investors and consumers.
While criminals have often exploited the existing financial system for money laundering, cryptocurrencies have given bad actors new ways to conduct old crimes. Dark markets conduct sales of illegal drugs and other contraband using cryptocurrencies. State actors, such as Venezuela, Russia, and Iran have used crypto finance to undermine U.S. policies. Additionally, cryptocurrencies add new challenges to global tax compliance.
What investor protection does exist in crypto markets seems little more than an effort to stay ahead of law enforcement’s and regulators’ attention.
Crypto Exchanges
Most crypto exchanges are unregistered. Manipulative behavior goes unchecked and billions of dollars in customers’ tokens have been stolen. Compared to traditional financial exchanges, they lack intermediation through regulated broker-dealers. Further, according to CryptoCompare’s October Exchange Review, only 47 percent of exchanges impose strict know-your-customer (‘KYC’) requirements.
See: Crypto Bear Market Gives UK Regulators Breathing Space to Finalize Crypto Regulation
Safeguards to date – treating crypto exchanges and digital wallet providers through money transmission laws in the same manner as Western Union or MoneyGram – are unsatisfactory.
Crypto exchanges are trading venues and need be treated as such, with mandated investor protections in place. Front running and other manipulative behavior needs to be banned. Exchanges need to fully comply with anti-money laundering laws and seriously fix or consider spinning off their custodial functions.
In 2019 and beyond, we will see multiple exchanges register in the U.S. – those trading ICO tokens will register as broker-dealers under Regulation ATS and Intercontinental Exchange’s new Bakkt exchangewill register and operate under the Commodities Exchange Act.
We’re also likely to see declining operating margins and consolidation in the more than 200 crypto exchanges.
Initial Coin Offerings
Of the thousands of ICOs to date, many have failed, and investors have lost billions. A recent EY studyreported that through the third quarter of 2018, 86 percent of the top ICOs of 2017 were trading below their listing price and only 13 percent actually have a working product.
Filecoin, for instance, raised over $250 million in October 2017 but is not due to go live until mid-2019. Academic and market studies also have found the ICO market rife with scams and frauds.
Debates have raged around the globe about how cryptocurrencies, and particularly ICOs, fit within existing securities, commodities and derivatives laws. Many contend that so-called ‘utility tokens’ sold for future consumption are not investment contracts – but this is a false distinction.
See: New eToro Survey Reveals Strong Interest in Cryptoasset Education, Despite Market Downturn
By their very design, ICOs mix economic attributes of both consumption and investment. ICO tokens’ realities – their risks, expectation of profits, reliance on the efforts of others, manner of marketing, exchange trading, limited supply, and capital formation — are attributes of investment offerings.
In the U.S., nearly all ICOs would meet the Supreme Court’s ‘Howey Test’ defining an investment contract under securities laws. As poet James Whitcomb Riley wrote over 100 years ago: “When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.”
In 2019, we’re likely to continue seeing high ICO failure rates while funding totals decline. Regulators and the courts will bring added clarity to the market through increased numbers of enforcement cases and related private litigation.
Central Banks
Central banks are studying blockchain technology and crypto markets with one eye on financial stability and another eye on what it means for the fiat currencies they issue and oversee.
Canada’s project Jasper and Singapore’s project Ubin are exploring use of permissioned blockchain applications to update payment systems.
See: IMF: Nations Need to Consider a Central Bank Backed Cryptocurrency
While the policy challenges are significant, some Central Banks also are considering giving the public access to central bank payment systems and digital reserves through so-called ‘central bank digital currency’ (CBDC). Two countries’ review – one strong and one in distress – are noteworthy. In Sweden, use of paper-based Krona has declined and the Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, is pursuing an e-Krona project to provide electronic central bank money directly to the public.
Venezuela, facing hyperinflation, economic instability, and sanctions is promoting public use of a purportedly oil-backed token, Petro, though there are reports that seriously question the token’s legitimacy.
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CrowdfundInsider | JD Alois | Apr 14, 2021 SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has posted an update to her Token Safe Habor proposal. Back in February 2020, Commissioner Peirce revealed her proposal in an effort to create a regulatory environment that supported Fintech innovation while acknowledging the unique characteristics of digital assets. Since the emergence of crypto-assets, the SEC has struggled to manage the new asset class that may have characteristics of a security while also having a utility quality. In the end, the Commission has defaulted to the decades-old Howey Test to regulate crypto and, at times, regulation by enforcement. Commissioner Peirce’s first version of a safe harbor for token offerings sought to accommodate the ability for a digital asset to morph into a utility over a period of time while creators worked on the network that used a native token. See: Hester Peirce on personal liberty, crypto regs and retail investor particiation From the beginning, Commissioner Peirce has stated the safe harbor is a work in process, accepting feedback from industry insiders. In recent conversations, the Commissioner hinted that an update would be forthcoming and yesterday she posted version 2.0 on Github. The Commissioner has invited further comments and ...
Read More
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Sifted | Nicolas Colin | Apr 14, 2021 The Greensill debacle shows that startups have a lot to learn when it comes to winning friends and influencing people. Startups are getting stuck into some highly-regulated industries — and they need to start taking those regulations seriously. Long gone are the days when founders could “move fast and break things”, to echo Mark Zuckerberg’s famous words. Now startups are handling people’s money; they’re responsible for children’s education; and some of them are even taking our lives in their (healthtech) hands. But staying on the right side of regulation is not easy. Most rules were designed a long time ago, well before the internet came about and made it possible to solve old problems with new solutions. Many things that are now possible don’t exactly fit in the old regulatory boxes that we inherit from the past — whether it’s rules that relate to taxi medallions or the 1835 Highways Act that effectively prohibits anyone in the UK from riding an electric scooter on the road. For some startups to take off while strictly complying with existing regulations in sectors such as transportation, financial services or healthcare, the sequence would have to ...
Read More
MarketWatch | Mark DeCambre | Apr 14, 2021 Coinbase is the talk of Wall Street on Wednesday, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange, arriving via a direct listing rather than a more traditional initial public offering. The arrival on the public markets of Coinbase COIN, 34.38% is a big moment in the world of cryptocurrencies. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.43% and today stands at what many in the industry have described as a tipping point. There are few ways to secure direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and which investors appear willing to pay for. Coinbase, whose users primarily deal in bitcoin and ethereum, reported last week that its revenue soared 847% in the first quarter to $1.8 billion, and that it now has 56 million verified users. See: ETF investors say Coinbase listing will cause explosion in crypto investing Leeor Shimron, an analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. “Coinbase’s direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.” ...
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Yahoo Finance | Release | April 13, 2021 LONDON, April 13, 2021 /CNW/ - Emerging technology research company D-Core released its latest analysis reviewing the future of the cryptocurrency landscape, calling for CoinPayments to remain the leading crypto payments processor in 2026. D-Core's report surveyed 161 experts, asking them: "Which crypto payment processor will definitely be operating in five years time?" Of those surveyed, 37% picked CoinPayments, giving it the top spot. The other crypto payment processors included in the report were Bitpay (29%), BTCpay (19%), SpicePay (13%), CoinGate (1%), among others. "It is great to be recognized as a top crypto payment processor among experts in the industry," noted Jason Butcher, CEO of CoinPayments. "Since 2013, our aim has always been to fuel crypto adoption and the most effective way to give digital assets their rightful place as mediums of exchange is by enabling businesses and consumers to use them for everyday purchases." See: Jason Butcher, CEO Coinpayments speak at the 7th Fintech & Financing conference: FFCON21 Breaking Barriers May 11-13 The report's timely release comes as notable companies like Paypal and Tesla announce that they will be facilitating crypto payments for customers. Crypto adoption is steadily on the ...
Read More
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Read More
Forbes | Jack Kelly | Apr 9, 2021 A little bad publicity goes a long way. In late March, the legendary investment bank, Goldman Sachs, was accused by a group of young bankers of making them work 100 hours a week. The Wall Street analysts claimed that they were forced to endure a punishing schedule that left them exhausted and unable to have a social life. To ameliorate the situation, Goldman decided to offer them Saturdays off and said they’d find additional help to alleviate the workload. One day off doesn’t seem like much, but in the hustle culture on Wall Street, it's a start. Investment banking is a highly competitive field. Now that Goldman set the precedent, other banks are one-upping each other by giving lavish salary increases, bonuses, days off and Peloton bikes to Gen-Z bankers. Bank of America Corp., one of the nation’s largest banks, said it will enhance the salaries of its junior investment bankers starting May 1, according to Reuters. The salary increases are being awarded to show its recognition. While many sectors have been hit hard by the effects of Covid-19, financial firms have done well. Trading throughout 2020 and the first quarter of ...
Read More
CrowdfundInsider | JD Alois | Apr 14, 2021 SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has posted an update to her Token Safe Habor proposal. Back in February 2020, Commissioner Peirce revealed her proposal in an effort to create a regulatory environment that supported Fintech innovation while acknowledging the unique characteristics of digital assets. Since the emergence of crypto-assets, the SEC has struggled to manage the new asset class that may have characteristics of a security while also having a utility quality. In the end, the Commission has defaulted to the decades-old Howey Test to regulate crypto and, at times, regulation by enforcement. Commissioner Peirce’s first version of a safe harbor for token offerings sought to accommodate the ability for a digital asset to morph into a utility over a period of time while creators worked on the network that used a native token. See: Hester Peirce on personal liberty, crypto regs and retail investor particiation From the beginning, Commissioner Peirce has stated the safe harbor is a work in process, accepting feedback from industry insiders. In recent conversations, the Commissioner hinted that an update would be forthcoming and yesterday she posted version 2.0 on Github. The Commissioner has invited further comments and ...
Read More
Read More
CrowdfundInsider | JD Alois | Apr 19, 2021 Several months ago, FinCEN submitted for publication in the Federal Register its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) regarding certain transactions that involve virtual currency or digital assets. FinCEN or the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network is a bureau of the US Department of the Treasury that seeks to combat domestic and international money laundering, terrorist financing, and other illicit activity. The proposal in question has received criticism from the digital asset industry due to the extensive reporting requirements in the potential rule. FinCEN came under criticism when it appeared to rush through the NPRM in the midst of the holidays and during the transition to the Biden administration and subsequently, an extension was added for the comment period regarding “digital assets with legal tender status” (LTDA) or involving “convertible virtual currency” (CVC). David R. Burton, Senior Fellow in Economic Policy at The Heritage Foundation – and expert on legislation and securities law, submitted a comment letter addressing the proposed rules slamming the NPRM. Burton, in his comment letter, said that combatting the financing of terrorism and other illicit activity is a very important goal. But the proposal by FinCEN fails in its objective as ...
Read More
Read More
Association of Corporate Treasurers | March 2021 Faster payments initiatives are a key breakthrough for treasurers and financial markets. Tony Carfang asks what comes next and how we measure success Over the past several decades, payments have become faster, cheaper, more secure and more reliable. Cheques used to take days in the mail and then days to clear once deposited. International funds transfers would pass through several banks, each taking a ‘lifting’ fee as the funds slowly passed from originator to recipient. Fortunately, those days are over. Transaction settlement times have declined from weeks (the cheque is in the mail) to days to minutes. Only a couple of years ago, same-day settlement was hailed as a breakthrough. Now, the target is 10 seconds or less and many closed networks are achieving that fairly consistently, something that is now being called ‘immediate payments’. See: Clubhouse launches payments for creators Central banks, commercial banks and payment networks are racing to make payments even speedier. This is all very good, since timing delays in payments and their accompanying information create risk and uncertainty as well as wreaking havoc with cash forecasts and liquidity cushions. In the US, the Federal Reserve launched its Faster Payments ...
Read More
Read More
Forbes | Jonathan Ponciano | Apr 14, 2021 The Senate on Wednesday confirmed President Joe Biden's nomination of Gary Gensler, a former Goldman Sachs banker and a forceful commodities regulator under former President Barack Obama, to head up the Securities and Exchange Commission, setting the stage for widespread reform as the agency takes on unprecedented stock-market volatility and booming institutional adoption in the nascent cryptocurrency space. Key Facts The Senate confirmed Gensler's appointment Wednesday afternoon in a vote of 53 to 45, placing the 63-year-old academic and former investment banker atop the agency charged with maintaining fair, orderly and efficient markets. Gensler, who's promised to increase transparency and reduce risk in the market, succeeds former SEC Chair Jay Clayton, an attorney tapped by former President Donald Trump to undo financial regulations that "stifled investment in American companies." The confirmation comes more than a month after the Senate Banking Committee voted 14 to 10 to advance Gensler's nomination for two terms ending on June 5, 2026. See: Will Gary Gensler at SEC be Good for Crypto? The Senate only voted to confirm Gensler for the remainder of the term expiring June 5, so it will need to hold another vote for ...
Read More
Read More
Nova Credit blog | Apr 1, 2021 SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Apr. 1, 2020 - Nova Credit, a global credit bureau enabling immigrants access to credit, has launched a new direct-to-consumer dating service. The app, named “Score!”, matches any U.S. immigrant with a local American, based on analysis of their credit scores and other behavioral insights. It is available on both iOS and Android, and has an early user rating of 4.1 stars. See Score! in action. Recent data released from the Advanced Population Research Institute of Louisville’s Foreign-born Overseas Observations: Longitudinal Study shows that non-U.S. born residents are not only remaining longer in the U.S. (from an average of 6 years in 2000 to 11 years in 2020), but also more likely to marry a local (from 4% in the 1980s to a peak of 12% last year). Nova Credit Head of Product Melanie Aliperti offered, “as we’ve run deeper user research, we’ve found that the quest for love is becoming a more significant theme and requested feature - particularly as newcomers seek deeper cultural integration and mingling.” The feedback from early beta users has been promising. Priyanka from India described her experience, “Bumble, Raya, Tinder -- I’ve been on ...
Read More
Read More
Sifted | Nicolas Colin | Apr 14, 2021 The Greensill debacle shows that startups have a lot to learn when it comes to winning friends and influencing people. Startups are getting stuck into some highly-regulated industries — and they need to start taking those regulations seriously. Long gone are the days when founders could “move fast and break things”, to echo Mark Zuckerberg’s famous words. Now startups are handling people’s money; they’re responsible for children’s education; and some of them are even taking our lives in their (healthtech) hands. But staying on the right side of regulation is not easy. Most rules were designed a long time ago, well before the internet came about and made it possible to solve old problems with new solutions. Many things that are now possible don’t exactly fit in the old regulatory boxes that we inherit from the past — whether it’s rules that relate to taxi medallions or the 1835 Highways Act that effectively prohibits anyone in the UK from riding an electric scooter on the road. For some startups to take off while strictly complying with existing regulations in sectors such as transportation, financial services or healthcare, the sequence would have to ...
Read More
Read More
MarketWatch | Mark DeCambre | Apr 14, 2021 Coinbase is the talk of Wall Street on Wednesday, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange, arriving via a direct listing rather than a more traditional initial public offering. The arrival on the public markets of Coinbase COIN, 34.38% is a big moment in the world of cryptocurrencies. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.43% and today stands at what many in the industry have described as a tipping point. There are few ways to secure direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and which investors appear willing to pay for. Coinbase, whose users primarily deal in bitcoin and ethereum, reported last week that its revenue soared 847% in the first quarter to $1.8 billion, and that it now has 56 million verified users. See: ETF investors say Coinbase listing will cause explosion in crypto investing Leeor Shimron, an analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. “Coinbase’s direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.” ...
Read More
Read More
Yahoo Finance | Release | April 13, 2021 LONDON, April 13, 2021 /CNW/ - Emerging technology research company D-Core released its latest analysis reviewing the future of the cryptocurrency landscape, calling for CoinPayments to remain the leading crypto payments processor in 2026. D-Core's report surveyed 161 experts, asking them: "Which crypto payment processor will definitely be operating in five years time?" Of those surveyed, 37% picked CoinPayments, giving it the top spot. The other crypto payment processors included in the report were Bitpay (29%), BTCpay (19%), SpicePay (13%), CoinGate (1%), among others. "It is great to be recognized as a top crypto payment processor among experts in the industry," noted Jason Butcher, CEO of CoinPayments. "Since 2013, our aim has always been to fuel crypto adoption and the most effective way to give digital assets their rightful place as mediums of exchange is by enabling businesses and consumers to use them for everyday purchases." See: Jason Butcher, CEO Coinpayments speak at the 7th Fintech & Financing conference: FFCON21 Breaking Barriers May 11-13 The report's timely release comes as notable companies like Paypal and Tesla announce that they will be facilitating crypto payments for customers. Crypto adoption is steadily on the ...
Read More
Read More
Montreal in Tech | Joseph Czikk | Apr 2, 2021 Sam Presti made a risky bet in the summer of 2018. The general manager of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder traded for star player Paul George. There was just one problem. George had one year left on his contract before he was free to sign with whomever he wanted, and he made it clear he wanted to return home to Los Angeles to play for the Lakers. Presti made a bet on an asset that would probably skip town in a year’s time. In doing so, he risked his job in Oklahoma City, a small market team that doesn’t often lure high-end free agent players. See: 4 Ways the Startup Landscape Will Shift in 2021 “Scared money don’t make none,” Presti famously remarked at the press conference, referencing a lyric from Midnight, by A Tribe Called Quest. Presti’s big bet paid off. George liked it so much in the midwest that he spurned the Lakers and signed on for another year with the Thunder, shocking many. Montreal’s next tech unicorn? Like Presti’s gamble, risk-taking is sometimes necessary in life. And for so long it felt like Canadian tech markets like ...
Read More
Read More
Forbes | Jack Kelly | Apr 9, 2021 A little bad publicity goes a long way. In late March, the legendary investment bank, Goldman Sachs, was accused by a group of young bankers of making them work 100 hours a week. The Wall Street analysts claimed that they were forced to endure a punishing schedule that left them exhausted and unable to have a social life. To ameliorate the situation, Goldman decided to offer them Saturdays off and said they’d find additional help to alleviate the workload. One day off doesn’t seem like much, but in the hustle culture on Wall Street, it's a start. Investment banking is a highly competitive field. Now that Goldman set the precedent, other banks are one-upping each other by giving lavish salary increases, bonuses, days off and Peloton bikes to Gen-Z bankers. Bank of America Corp., one of the nation’s largest banks, said it will enhance the salaries of its junior investment bankers starting May 1, according to Reuters. The salary increases are being awarded to show its recognition. While many sectors have been hit hard by the effects of Covid-19, financial firms have done well. Trading throughout 2020 and the first quarter of ...
Read More
Read More
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