Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Karsten Wenzlaff is a Crowdfunding and Fintech Expert from Germany. He is Secretary-General of Digit[...]
Why Policy Scenarios Now Matter for Fintech Strategy
Fintech Risks | Oct 20, 2025
Image: Freepik/Rawpixel.com
Tiff Macklem Fireside Implies Fintechs Must Plan For Multiple Policy Outcomes as Trade and Inflation Risks Rise
On October 16, 2025, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem joined Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington for a public conversation about Canada’s economic outlook and global trade. Macklem said new tariffs, slower trade, and changing supply chains are impacting the Canadian economy.
As a result, he explained that the BoC is now using several possible economic paths instead of one fixed forecast because global uncertainty has become constant. The new approach was outlined in the Bank’s July 2025 Monetary Policy Report and compares what could happen if tariffs stay the same, ease, or rise, and indicates the impact of each option on inflation, output, and interest rates.
Canada’s Four Challenges in a Divided World
Macklem described four forces that will impact the next 10 years for Canada:
1. Trade now clusters around three main hubs led by the United States, China, and the European Union. The United States still dominates world finance even as investors question its safe haven status, and other countries like Singpore pushing above their weight.
See: Data Shows Tariffs Are Threatening Early Stage Innovation
2. Global trade and money flows are becoming uneven again (a recurring structural issue). Some regions keep running big surpluses while others, including North America, rely more on borrowing. Macklem said this growing imbalance adds risk to the global financial system and limits how much small economies like Canada can control their outcomes.
3. He said higher tariffs and unpredictable policy weaken demand, raise costs, and reduce the efficiency of supply.
4. Canada is feeling these pressures through weaker exports, slower investment, and lower productivity growth, outcomes that no interest rate decision can reverse.
From One Forecast to Several Possible Futures
Traditional forecasts assume one view of the world. Macklem explained that the Bank now works with three possible paths. One assumes current tariffs remain. One assumes tensions ease. One assumes further escalation.
See: Stephen Poloz’s Plan to Fix Canada’s Economy
The aim is to keep inflation expectations stable while helping households and businesses adjust to uncertainty. For fintechs and lenders, strategic business planning must now be built around several credible economic futures too, and not rely on a single base case. Funding, pricing, and credit policies should be tested against each path to stay resilient no matter which reality unfolds.
Trade Uncertainty and Financial Risk
Macklem explained that new tariffs and complex rules are adding cost and delay at the Canada–U.S. border, disrupting supply chains. Firms that once relied on integrated supply chains now need new suppliers, new routes, and stricter compliance to maintain trade eligibility. That adds cost and delays that ripple across sectors. Even service firms are affected through their clients and vendors.
For fintechs offering trade finance, payments, or working capital products, this environment creates opportunity but also exposure to new risks. There is demand for tools that make international transactions faster and more transparent, but also new risks tied to client sectors under pressure.
Competitiveness Through Productivity and Reform
The Governor stressed that raising productivity is now essential. He pointed to faster project approvals, fewer internal trade barriers, and stronger transport links as priorities to open new pathways.
See: Canada’s Public Sector Costs and Productivity Gap
The Bank’s recent reports say that fixing long-term barriers in the economy like slow project approvals or weak competition can improve growth more than changing interest rates (aka, monetary policy).
Fintechs can build solutions that help reduce administrative frictions, such as digital identity and onboarding tools can eliminate duplication between provinces. Compliance automation and regulatory technology can shorten approval times. Procurement platforms can help smaller firms reach national customers. These are examples of direct responses to the barriers that Macklem said must be addressed.
Neutral Rate, Cost of Capital, and Planning
Macklem also spoke about the neutral interest rate which is the level that keeps inflation stable without stimulating or slowing the economy. He said it may not align between Canada and the United States because productivity growth and fiscal policies differ. That divergence affects long term funding costs and the flow of investment capital.
See: How Competition Powers Canada’s Economic Growth
For fintechs that borrow in U.S. dollars or rely on foreign investors, funding costs and access to cash can change even if central banks don’t move rates. The safest approach is to plan for different interest rate outcomes instead of assuming Canada and the U.S. will always move together.
Digital Money and the Priority of Trust
When asked about digital assets, Macklem said the Bank’s work on stablecoins and a possible central bank digital currency focuses on preserving trust and value. The principle of the singleness of money means that one Canadian dollar must hold the same worth everywhere, whether in cash or digital form.
Stablecoin systems must avoid runs and guarantee convertibility. For fintech developers and innovators, it means creating systems that work within the regulated financial system, not outside. The most promising area is making international payments faster, cheaper, and clearer, while ensuring every digital dollar is fully backed and can always be redeemed.
Why Case Planning Matters For Fintech
Uncertainty is no longer an exception but a normal condition for business and policy. Every possible trade path changes inflation, growth, and the cost of capital. Fintech founders, investors, and lenders must build this thinking into their models and operations. That includes ready plans for each scenario, triggers for risk adjustments, and playbooks for client support when tariffs or rates move unexpectedly.
See: The Crisis Canada and Fintech Can’t Afford to Waste
The firms that incorporate this discipline and governance will not only manage volatility better but also build trust with investors and customers who highly value predictability in uncertain times.
Outlook
It's time for Canada to demonstrate adaptability, and treat uncertainty as a given design factor instead of a sudden surprise. Canada’s financial ecosystem, from established lenders to digital innovators, must treat uncertainty as a normal part of planning. Fintechs that adopt scenario planning, streamline processes, and improve real economy efficiency can help Canada compete globally even as the trading system fragments.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create aa vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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