Good, Bad, and Ugly of Project Strawberry’s Capabilities

AI | Jul 16, 2024

Image: Freepik/artbutenkov

What outcomes can we expect from OpenAI's secret Project Strawberry?

Recent reports on OpenAI's covert initiative, Project Strawberry, have drawn interest from artificial intelligence tech enthusiasts and business leaders. This initiative hints at a future where AI will be able to conduct deep research, think, plan ahead, and solve problems on par with humans with improvements in reasoning capabilities.  Below we explore the potential impacts on fintech, and ask ChatGPT itself to help assess the possibilities it holds for various sectors.

What is Project Strawberry?

According to Reuters and Bloomberg, Project Strawberry's objective is to develop AI systems that possess the ability to perform deep reasoning which means it can analyze and comprehend intricate issues, strategically plan, and proactively come up with solutions to deploy.  All combined such AI capabilities can be called Superintelligent AI, a remarkable achievement in the field of AI (and not for the faint of heart).

Human-Level Problem Solving

Fundamentally, the goal of Project Strawberry is to give AI the capacity to solve problems at the level of a human. This entails going beyond data processing and pattern recognition to effectively in real-time grasp context, make logical choices (that can be explained), and forecast results. This type of Superintelligence will be able to:

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• Plan strategically by creating plans to accomplish long-term objectives while foreseeing possible roadblocks.
• Apply logic to tackle sophisticated and abstract problems with advanced reasoning.
• Adapt, learn and grow its problem-solving techniques over time by taking in new knowledge and experiences.

What's the timeline?

Gradual developments are anticipated in the next few years, and significant breakthroughs are probably in the works during the next ten years.  There are multiple stages of development and testing involved in getting from existing AI capabilities to the desired Project Strawberry features.

Implications for Fintech

The development of AI reasoning technology will be extremely beneficial to the fintech industry. The progression of AI's present fintech sector skills to Project Strawberry's anticipated advanced features is depicted in the table below. Financial services will change dramatically as a result of the transition from simple automation and pattern recognition to complex reasoning and strategic planning, which would increase their resilience, predictability, and personalization.

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Here are a few examples that illustrate the transformation:

Image: Pixabay/Ramdlon

Probability Assessment of Future Outcomes with Superintelligent AI

We asked ChatGPT to predict the 'good, bad, and ugly' outcomes in a not too distant future, assuming the achievement and use of Strawberry like capabilities and to assign a probability of such outcomes coming true.  Here’s a detailed breakdown:

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The Good ~60%

Massive Efficiency and Innovation Gains

• Healthcare: Very likely (70%). It appears highly likely that advanced reasoning capabilities will be integrated to improve individualized treatment plans and diagnosis given the present trajectory of AI in medicine.
• Education: Moderate possibility (60%). Although it is possible, adopting and investing heavily in individualized AI tutors for use in classrooms will need the support of educational institutions.
• Environmental Sustainability: Moderate possibility (50%). Governments and businesses must prioritize environmental challenges and work together globally for this to be successful.

Enhanced Problem Solving

• Business and Finance: High chance (80%). Since the financial industry is already a major investor in AI, the development of enhanced reasoning capabilities makes sense.
• Government and Policy: Moderate possibility (60%). AI has the potential to greatly enhance policymaking, but because of ethical, bureaucratic, and regulatory issues, its implementation may take longer than expected.

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Improved Quality of Life

• Daily Living: Very likely (70%). Artificial intelligence is already being used in everyday tasks, and Project Strawberry will expand on these developments.
• Safety and Security: Moderate possibility (60%). AI-driven security solutions are emerging quickly, but their adoption may be hampered by privacy and ethical issues.

The Bad ~30%

Job Displacement and Economic Disruption

• Automation: Very likely (70%). There is no denying the trend toward automation, and advanced AI will probably speed up this process and result in a large loss of jobs.
• Economic Inequality: Moderate possibility (50%). Although there are worries about how AI advantages will be distributed, these risks may be reduced by proactive legislation and actions.

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Ethical and Privacy Concerns

• Surveillance: Moderate possibility (50%). There is a fine line between increased security and invasion of privacy, and public backlash may restrict the scope of surveillance.
• Bias and Discrimination: High chance (60%). Though awareness and efforts to solve these challenges are developing, AI systems are prone to perpetuate prejudices without careful design and regulation.

The Ugly ~10%

Loss of Human Autonomy

• Dependency:  Moderate possibility (40%). Even though there is a chance that AI will be used excessively, understanding of this risk could motivate efforts to preserve human abilities like critical thinking.
• Control:  Low likelihood (20%). Although safety precautions will be included into advanced AI systems, there is still a chance that they will be insufficient or circumvented.

Existential Risks

• Superintelligence:  Low probability (10%). The worldwide AI community is aggressively addressing the substantial obstacles and ethical problems associated with the development of superintelligent AI in order to prevent disastrous outcomes.
• Weaponization:  Moderate chance (30%). Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to be used in military systems, however this risk may be limited by global laws and moral concerns.

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Conclusion

A future with Project Strawberry capabilities has enormous promise for improving human existence and solving difficult global issues, however it needs to be handled with significant caution where policymakers, technologists, and society at large must collaborate on a future where AI serves humanity's best interests.  The prior sentence sort of feels like a 'broken record' where the sentiment is the same for most challenges.  The future is brighter and stronger when resources collaborate and remain united (not divided).

The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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