Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Davos | Jan 19, 2026

Image: Current Global Risk Landscape (WEF 2026 Global Risks Report)
From January 19 to 23, 2026, global leaders are gathering in Davos, Klosters for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, one of the few global forums where heads of government, central bankers, investors, and business leaders meet in the same place to discuss economic risk, trade, and long term stability. This year’s theme is "A Spirit of Dialogue", to address growing concerns that cooperation is weakening as global risks are becoming harder to manage.
Ahead of Davos, the World Economic Forum released its Global Risks Report 2026 (102 page PDF) based on its Global Risks Perception Survey of more than 1,300 experts across government, business, academia, and civil society worldwide. Participants were asked to rank the risks most likely to trigger a global crisis in the short term, as well as the most severe risks over longer time horizons.
The report identifies "geoeconomic confrontation" as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026. 18% of survey respondents ranked it first, moving it ahead of state based armed conflict for the first time. The report defines geoeconomic confrontation as the deliberate use of tariffs, sanctions, export controls, investment screening, subsidies, capital restrictions, and technology controls to advance national interests, rather than as temporary trade friction.
The report frames the current period as an age of competition, where economic tools increasingly replace diplomacy. It also shows that confidence in multilateral systems is weakening.
68% of respondents expecting a more fragmented global order, where countries manage multiple regional relationships instead of relying on a single rules based framework.
Economic risks remain elevated. An economic downturn ranks 6th among global risks for 2026, reflecting concerns tied to trade fragmentation, high debt levels, and asset price vulnerability. The report doesn't predict a specific recession size, but it highlights how shocks can spread faster in a highly interconnected financial system.
The report also quantifies risks tied to trust and technology. Misinformation and disinformation rank 5th, driven by faster and more scalable digital amplification. Cyber insecurity ranks 9th, while adverse outcomes of AI technologies enter the top ten for the first time, reflecting concerns around misuse, governance gaps, and longer term economic and security effects. Importantly, the report shows AI related risks increasing significantly over the ten year horizon, as leaders view AI as a structural risk that compounds other pressures rather than a short term crisis trigger.
Canada doesn't set global rules on its own, but it is deeply affected by how those rules evolve. The Global Risks Report makes clear that mid sized, trade dependent economies face higher exposure when economic pressure becomes a primary policy tool.
Market behaviour already price this sensitivity. Canadian equity markets have shown quick reactions to renewed tariff threats and trade policy signals, reinforcing how closely capital pricing tracks global risk narratives. This volatility isn't driven by domestic structural gaps alone, but by uncertainty in the global trade environment.
In Canada, business leaders are already feeling the pressures Davos is wrestling with. In the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2025, firms report subdued sentiment and weak recent sales growth, and many point to trade tension and uncertainty as key reasons they stay cautious on hiring and investment. Some exporters also report that they are working harder to sell into markets outside the United States, which fits a broader push toward diversification as global risk rises.
For Canada, the forum offers a place to engage with partners, investors, and institutions that are reassessing risk, diversification, and resilience at the same time. In a world where geoeconomic confrontation leads the risk rankings, visibility and credibility matter.
The risks highlighted in the Global Risks Report translate into practical considerations for Canada’s fintech and innovation ecosystem.
First, trade concentration is a measurable risk.
When tariffs, sanctions, and investment controls rise, companies with narrow market exposure face greater volatility. Diversifying customers, partners, and capital sources becomes a defensive strategy, not just a growth choice.
Second, capital follows predictability. The report links economic downturn risk to policy uncertainty and fragmented governance. Investors respond by adjusting risk premiums, which affects valuations, fundraising timelines, and exit options, particularly for scale ups.
Third, technology risk is contextual, meaning technology itself isn't the main risk. The risk comes from how it is used, governed, and trusted, especially when economic and political tensions are already high. The report doesn't treat AI or digital systems as isolated threats. Instead, it positions them as amplifiers that can worsen misinformation, cyber exposure, and economic disruption if governance and trust break down. For Canadian firms competing globally, credibility around security, governance, and responsible deployment increasingly affects whether they win customers and attract capital.
Trade, finance, and technology are now at the center of geopolitical strategy, with direct consequences for businesses and investors. Canada’s fintech ecosystem should plan for sustained volatility. Growth strategies built on stable trade assumptions face higher risk. Founders and investors who understand these quantified global risks will be better positioned to manage exposure, attract capital, and compete responsibly in a more uncertain global economy.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Exporting | Webinar | January 14, 2026
Image: Freepik/Rawpixel.com
Many Canadian companies still operate only in their domestic market or to a narrow set of export markets. That limited exposure becomes a problem when trade rules change, demand softens, or geopolitical risk rises like the current trade environment Canada finds itself in.
On January 28, 2026, Canada's Trade Commissioner Service (TCS) is hosting a webinar for founders and operators called 'Trade diversification: how to select a new market" to better understand the key decisions they must face to determine where to export their business internationally. The session aligns closely with NCFA's community and the hope is that founders will approach choices with more discipline than pure instinct.
Host: Trade Commissioner Service in partnership with the Forum for International Trade Training
Date/Time: January 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT (60 minutes)
Format: Online via Webex
Description: The session introduces a structured approach to evaluating and selecting new international markets based on opportunity, fit, and risk. The webinar also features insights from Chief Trade Commissioner Sara Wilshaw on how Canadian companies can use Trade Commissioner Service support when entering or scaling in foreign markets. The webinar is designed for Canadian companies of all sizes and across all sectors that want to expand internationally, explore new export markets, or strengthen their global growth strategy through diversification. It is relevant for first time exporters as well as firms already active abroad that are reassessing their market mix.
The discussion explains why diversification matters now and how it helps reduce long term business risk.
A certified FITT expert walks through a clear step by step method for choosing the right market.
Canadian exporters share lessons from real expansion efforts including what worked and what they would change.
The session also explains how the Trade Commissioner Service supports companies with market intelligence, local connections, and on the ground insight.
A live Q and A allows participants to ask questions tied directly to their export plans.
Registration closes January 27, 2026. REGISTER HERE before registration closes on Jan 27, 2026. For questions, participants should contact the Trade Commissioner Service directly at tcs-sdc@international.gc.ca.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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CIX Summit | Jan 13, 2026

Image courtesy of CIX Summit
Mark your calendars! On March 25, 2026, CIX Summit returns to Toronto, bringing together high growth Canadian technology companies, global investors, and industry advisors for one of the country’s most established startup investment and awards events. NCFA is pleased to participate as an official Community Partner again this year, supporting broader visibility and access for founders and operators across our network.
Powered by Elevate, CIX Summit has built a long standing role in Canada’s innovation landscape by focusing on companies that demonstrate real traction, credible leadership, and scale potential. The event combines curated startup awards with a focused investment audience, creating a setting designed for meaningful conversations rather than surface level networking.
CIX Summit 2026 takes place at Design Exchange in Toronto, a venue that reflects the event’s emphasis on execution, discipline, and growth. The program brings together founders who are actively building, investors looking for deployable opportunities, and advisors who understand the operational and regulatory realities of scaling companies in Canada and internationally.
NCFA’s role as a Community Partner reflects our continued focus on improving access to capital, strengthening founder investor connections, and supporting platforms that prioritize quality over volume. Events like CIX matter because they concentrate attention on companies that are ready for the next stage, while helping investors identify teams with credible paths to growth.
As part of this partnership, NCFA is sharing an exclusive 20% discount on all CIX Summit passes for its community.
Use CIXNCFA20 for 20% off. Spots are limited! ✅
For full event details, CIX startup awards, program updates, and to get your tickets, visit https://cixsummit.com/
Stay tuned as NCFA will continue to share updates as CIX announces its Startup Awards finalists and Innovator of the Year, and as the program takes shape leading into March.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Competition | Jan 13, 2026

Image: Freepik/pch.vector
On January 12, 2026, Canada's Competition Bureau announced a market study in small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) financing (see press release), with a focus on term loans. Canada already has extensive data showing that SME lending is concentrated, borrowing costs are higher for small firms, and switching lenders is rare. What it doesn't yet have is proof of why these outcomes persist and is evaluating market structure.
Jeanne Pratt, Acting Commissioner of Competition:
“Access to credit is critical to the survival and success of many Canadian small and medium businesses. Our study will examine competition in lending for SMEs, and how it can be improved. More competition would make a real difference for growth, investment and innovation.”
In 2023, nearly half or 49.3% of Canadian SMEs relied on external financing, and debt financing remains heavily concentrated among incumbents. Chartered banks supplied 68.5% of SME debt financing, credit unions accounted for 20.6%, government backed lenders provided 9.4%, and online alternative lenders only 2.2%, according to Statistics Canada’s 2023 SME financing data.
Borrowing costs also diverge sharply by firm size. Analysis cited by the Competition Bureau shows that Canadian SMEs pay higher interest rate premiums than large firms compared with SMEs in other OECD countries, with the difference reaching 1.64 percentage points in 2021 and 2.10 percentage points in 2022 compared with OECD averages of 0.93 and 0.90 points respectively. This suggests small businesses pay more not because credit is unavailable, but because lenders face limited competition.
OECD data quoted by the Competition Bureau shows that Canadian SMEs have paid interest rate premiums on loans that exceed those of large firms by more than in most other OECD countries, with the difference reaching 1.64 percentage points in 2021 and 2.10 percentage points in 2022 compared with OECD averages of 0.93 and 0.90 points respectively.
Switching lenders remains rare. Research cited by the Bureau shows that only about 10% of business owners actually switch lenders, even when better terms exist, and that personal guarantees and pledging a primary residence remain common requirements, based on CFIB research on financing barriers facing small businesses.
These figures describe the outcome but they don't break down in detail and explain the cause.
Aggregate datasets cannot show how competition breaks down in practice.
They don't reveal how long it takes an SME to refinance across providers, how bundled operating accounts, payments, and credit products raise switching costs, or how limits on data access affect underwriting decisions.
They also cannot show whether challenger lenders face higher funding costs or regulatory friction that incumbents do not, or whether government programs close genuine market gaps or quietly reinforce existing lending structures.
That evidence exists only inside real transactions. A market study creates a formal record that allows these details to be tested, compared, and evaluated in a way policymakers can rely on.
Term loans fund long term investment in equipment, technology, facilities, and expansion. When competition fails at this level, SMEs delay productivity enhancing investment, not because capital is unavailable overall, but because it is unavailable on workable terms.
This links SME lending directly to Canada’s productivity problem. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned that weak business investment constrains productivity growth. NCFA has previously highlighted how senior Bank of Canada leadership has explicitly described Canada’s banking system as an oligopoly affecting competitive outcomes, reinforcing that market concentration is structural, not theoretical.
When a few lenders dominate the market and businesses cannot easily switch, higher costs and tighter terms persist year after year.
The competition bureau's study is testing one issue with significant consequences.
Are Canadian SMEs paying more and accepting tougher loan terms because of unavoidable risk, or because competition is structurally constrained?
If borrower risk explains the outcome, policy options remain narrow.
If market structure explains it, reform becomes unavoidable.
That distinction will determine how future decisions are made on switching rules, data portability, funding access, and competition policy in SME finance.
The Competition Bureau is asking for evidence.
SMEs can submit examples of failed refinancing attempts, excessive collateral requirements, and barriers that prevent moving to better terms. Fintech lenders, brokers, and platforms can submit evidence showing where entry and scaling breaks down, including limits on data access, funding costs, or regulatory friction that incumbents do not face.
Anonymized term sheets, approval timelines, refinancing costs, bundling effects, and side by side comparisons across providers will carry weight.
For fintechs, SMEs, and advocates, this is not a communications exercise. It is a narrow window to place real market evidence on the record before conclusions harden into policy. Submissions can be made through the Competition Bureau’s SME financing market study participation page or by emailing the study team directly at smemarketstudy-etudedemarchepme@cb-bc.gc.ca.
If challengers and SMEs don't define the evidence, incumbents will define the outcome.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Quantum Financing | Jan 9, 2026

Image: Unsplash/Planet Volumes
On January 6, 2026, Photonic $180M CAD financing led by UK based Planet First Partners brought large scale foreign capital into Canada’s quantum sector, with new Canadian institutional participation from RBC and Telus. At the same time, Ottawa launched Phase 1 of the Canadian Quantum Champions Program, committing up to $92M CAD across four companies, including Photonic, Xanadu, Nord Quantique, and Anyon Systems, as part of a $334.3M five year federal quantum investment announced in Budget 2025.
The timing suggests that Canada’s multi year quantum funding commitment may have helped lower perceived risk for both foreign investors and Canadian institutions, even though no direct causal link has been publicly stated. Public funding keeps core quantum builders anchored domestically, while private capital begins to treat leading teams as institutional grade businesses rather than long term research projects. As outlined in British Columbia Investment Management write-up who also participated in Photonic's round, when public and private capital move together at this scale, founders and global buyers take Canada more seriously.
Having said that, in 2026 what actually matters is not running quantum workloads, but preparing for the security, regulatory, and capital consequences that this level of quantum funding now creates.
The strongest counterpoint does not come from skeptics. It comes from how enterprise leaders rank priorities. For example, the Gartner Top Technology Trends 2026 does not include quantum computing among its top ten themes. CIO agendas continue to focus on AI platforms, security posture, provenance, and geopolitical resilience. That does not dismiss quantum, but it does highlight a timing gap between capital commitment and operational adoption.
Government timelines reinforce that gap for quantum computing itself. The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency frames its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative around proving whether any approach can reach utility scale quantum systems by 2033, defined as performance where value exceeds cost. For most buyers, that horizon places 2026 clearly in preparation mode rather than procurement for quantum compute workloads.
Security planning, however, tells a different story. The Forrester 2026 technology and security outlook projects that quantum security spending will exceed 5% of total IT security budgets in 2026. That spending focuses on migration planning, cryptographic discovery, and inventory tools to prioritize high impact systems. This does not signal near term adoption of quantum computers. It shows that quantum already matters operationally through security readiness, compliance pressure, and budget allocation.
The above explains why quantum feels both early and urgent at the same time. Compute remains longer dated, but security and cryptography move first. In August 2024, NIST finalized post quantum cryptography standards with explicit guidance for organizations to begin transitioning, and Canada aligns with that direction through federal quantum safe cryptography guidance.
Concurrently, Canada’s quantum builders continue to clear independent validation gates. As of November 6, 2025, DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Stage B advances 11 companies globally. Canadian firms Photonic, Xanadu, and Nord Quantique have progressed to this stage, which may matter more than domestic promotion.
In 2026, the real risk is committing too early to cryptography, vendors, or long-term contracts that cannot adapt as post-quantum requirements take shape. The combination of the Photonic financing and the $334.3M federal commitment makes this risk harder to ignore, not because quantum computers arrive tomorrow, but because capital and policy are both pointing toward future regulatory expectations. Regulators and auditors do not need quantum machines to ask whether systems can migrate without breaking core functions.
In practical terms, quantum readiness in 2026 means crypto agility, understanding where cryptography sits across the stack, and pressure testing suppliers against post quantum encryption standards. This work costs far less than a rushed migration later and fits inside security and compliance budgets that already exist.
The combination of a $180M CAD foreign led financing, $92M CAD in Phase 1 federal funding, and a $334.3M five year national quantum commitment puts Canada into a new category in 2026. Quantum still won't drive enterprise workloads in the near future, but for fintechs, banks, and infrastructure providers, the practical focus this year is crypto agility, supplier flexibility, and readiness for post quantum standards, not experimentation for its own sake.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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