Retail Distribution For Regulated Prediction Markets
On June 18, 2026, Wealthsimple announced Wealthsimple Predict, a standalone app that will give Canadian retail investors access to prediction market trading through Kalshi.
The app is in beta and expected to launch this summer. At launch, Wealthsimple says it will offer access to nearly 4,000 event contracts trading on Kalshi, limited to the categories Wealthsimple is authorized to offer in Canada a range of event contracts across economic indicators, financial markets, and climate. Those contracts must also meet Wealthsimple's listing standards.
This is a distribution milestone for Canadian prediction markets. In March, Prediction Markets Tighten as Wealthsimple Enters tracked Wealthsimple's regulatory approval as Canada began testing a narrower, supervised route for event contracts. So with this active launch plan, that story is evolving from approval to retail access.
Regulated Access Takes Shape
CIRO and the CSA reminded firms in April that event contracts remain subject to existing securities and derivatives rules. CIRO has said two dealer members are authorized to facilitate Canadian client access to event contracts. Public reporting and dealer materials indicate those firms are Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada.
Wealthsimple's own education material says event contract trading is legal in Canada under specific conditions, with guardrails around authorization, product categories, investor protection, and trading rules. Canada's version isn't simply a copy of U.S. political or sports prediction markets. It is starting with economic, financial, and climate contracts inside a regulated dealer pathway.
Event contracts are simple in structure but hard to operate well. Wealthsimple describes most prediction markets as binary contracts where users choose yes or no, and correct contracts pay $1 minus fees. Prices can act as probability estimates, but only when contracts are clear, liquid, supervised, and resolved properly.
Retail Distribution Changes The Market
Kalshi brings the exchange infrastructure. Wealthsimple brings Canadian retail distribution, education, onboarding, account experience, and investor guardrails. The combination is important for adoption. A prediction market with good contracts but weak distribution stays niche. While a prediction market connected to a large investing platform can test whether event contracts become useful market information, not only speculative trading activity.
NCFA's Innovation Opportunities in Regulated Event Contract Infrastructure brief identified the same gap. Regulated prediction markets need compliance, surveillance, market data, onboarding, dispute resolution, payout, risk, and investor education infrastructure. Wealthsimple Predict is a live validation point for that opportunity thesis.
The open question is whether or not event contracts will become sustainable information markets in Canada. If liquidity develops inside permitted categories, prices could help investors read market expectations around inflation, rates, climate outcomes, tariffs, currencies, and economic risk. If liquidity remains thin or contract design is weak, the information value will be limited.
Talking Point
As regulated prediction markets reach Canadian retail investors, will their main value come from trading activity, or from the real time probability data they produce for investors, policymakers, and markets?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
June 18, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Activity | Payments And Market Infrastructure, SME Finance And Business Banking
The Race To Own SME Operating Relationships
On June 16, 2026, London based fintech SumUp launched in Canada, expanding into its 38th market and bringing another global merchant platform into a competitive Canadian small business payments sector.
Founded in 2012, SumUp says it serves more than 4 million businesses globally. What began as a mobile card acceptance provider has expanded into a broader merchant platform that includes payments, invoicing, point of sale software, online selling tools, business accounts, loyalty capabilities, and other services designed to help small businesses manage day to day operations.
Canada represents a significant SME opportunity. According to Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, the country had approximately 1.10 million employer businesses as of December 2024, including roughly 1.08 million small businesses. SumUp's launch targets that market with SumUp Go for in person card acceptance and Payment Links for remote payment collection.
Why Merchant Payments Matter
Merchant payments have become one of the most valuable distribution channels in financial services.
Every transaction generates information about sales activity, customer demand, cash flow, seasonality, business growth, and operating performance. Companies that are closest to payment activity gain visibility into how a business actually operates. That information can support additional products and services ranging from invoicing and software to banking, lending, cash flow management, loyalty programs, and embedded finance.
As a result, competition is no longer limited to transaction processing fees. The larger opportunity is the business relationship itself.
Canada has already seen evidence of this shift. TD's merchant infrastructure partnership with Fiserv highlighted how financial institutions are rethinking merchant services strategies. Rather than treating payment acceptance as a standalone product, providers increasingly view merchant relationships as an entry point into broader financial and operational services.
Scale, Pricing And Competition
SumUp enters Canada with meaningful scale. The company reported processing more than 1 billion transactions annually and previously raised €590 million at an €8 billion valuation. The company has also expanded by aquisitions including Goodtill, Tiller, and Fivestars as it broadened its merchant software and commerce capabilities.
In Canada, SumUp's initial offer includes transaction based pricing without monthly subscription fees. That positions the company against a market that includes banks, merchant acquirers, point of sale providers, and fintech competitors serving Canadian SMEs.
The competitive question is becoming increasingly clear. Businesses need payment acceptance. They also need software, reporting, reconciliation, invoicing, customer engagement, and access to capital. Providers that can combine those capabilities into a simple operating experience may be better positioned to deepen merchant relationships over time.
Talking Point
As payment providers expand into software, banking, lending, and business operations, will merchant payments become the primary gateway to the SME financial relationship?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
Innovation Map → Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure → Prediction Markets → Opportunity
Last Updated Jun 24, 2026
FINANCIAL INNOVATION OPPORTUNITY BRIEFThis page tracks evidence, risks, validation signals and venture opportunities emerging as event contracts move from niche prediction markets toward regulated financial market infrastructure.
Innovation OpportunityPrediction Markets And Event Contracts
Regulated Event Contract Infrastructure
Event contracts are evolving from niche prediction markets into a regulated market category. The strongest openings may not be operating the markets themselves, but building the integrity, settlement, intelligence, distribution and risk management systems required for the category to scale.
28 Evidence5 Questions4 Related Opps5 ResourcesMajor Refresh
Opportunity Intelligence
Market Potential
US$2B to US$95B+Estimated category range
HighGrowth signals
MediumConfidence
4Source count
Prediction market and event contract estimates vary because some sources measure revenue, others measure trading volume, decentralized markets, regulated event contracts or broader forecasting activity. The range is wide, but the category appears large enough to support venture scale investigation.
View market sizing sources
Grand View Research estimated the global decentralized prediction market segment at about US$2B in 2025.
Certuity cited long term industry forecasts reaching US$95B+ by 2035.
Gambling Insider reported large recent prediction market volume estimates.
Recent evidence points to a larger infrastructure thesis. Event contracts need systems for market integrity, settlement, probability intelligence, distribution access and enterprise risk use cases. The strongest opportunity may be the trusted operating layer that helps many venues, brokers and data users participate without each rebuilding the same controls.
Top Risks
Regulatory classification remains unsettled across derivatives, gaming and market conduct regimes.
Liquidity, distribution and settlement may concentrate around a small number of approved venues and partners.
Existing exchange, surveillance, compliance and payment providers may extend current products before specialists establish a position.
Trust failures involving promotion, insider information, outcome disputes or sensitive events could slow adoption.
What To Watch
CFTC event contract decisions, broker access, Canadian distribution, stablecoin settlement activity, sportsbook challenges, enterprise pilots and evidence that buyers will pay for specialized infrastructure.
Product Opportunities
Strongest current path: Market Integrity Infrastructure
Evidence now supports five venture paths. These are product directions inside the parent opportunity, not automatic child Opportunity Briefs.
1. Market Integrity Infrastructure
Surveillance, disclosure and outcome disputes
11 evidence signals
3 related questions
high readiness
Event contracts are beginning to face the same trust problems that traditional exchanges faced as participation increased. Disclosure concerns, promotion practices, insider information risks, sensitive event pricing and outcome disputes are appearing before common standards have formed.
The opportunity is to help operators manage trust. Potential buyers include exchanges, brokers, operators and compliance teams. The strongest products may focus on surveillance, audit trails, disclosure monitoring, conflict detection and dispute management.
What could break the thesis
Large exchange surveillance providers extend existing products into event contracts before specialist vendors establish a foothold.
Market WindowOpen
Buyer ClarityHigh
Competitive PressureMedium
Evidence StrengthHigh
What to validate first
Is the first buyer the operator, broker or compliance function? Is the pain severe enough to create budget now?
2. Settlement Infrastructure
Funding, payout and stablecoin workflows
4 evidence signals
1 related question
growing readiness
Settlement is becoming a core operating requirement. Stablecoin activity, payout workflows and always available market participation increase the need for reliable funding, custody, reconciliation and settlement rails.
This path may support transaction based revenue if event market activity grows. The challenge is competition from payment providers, stablecoin issuers, custodians and existing financial infrastructure firms.
What could break the thesis
Existing payment providers absorb most of the value before specialized event market tools gain adoption.
Market WindowOpening
Buyer ClarityHigh
Competitive PressureHigh
Evidence StrengthMedium
What to validate first
Can the product reduce settlement cost, risk or complexity enough to win budget from operators or brokers?
3. Probability Intelligence Infrastructure
Forecast signals for investors and operators
6 evidence signals
2 related questions
growing readiness
Prediction markets can produce forward looking probability signals that traditional datasets often miss. Private market valuation odds, policy forecasts, economic expectations and event risk pricing are early examples.
This path is broader than a data feed. The opportunity is to package probabilities into intelligence products that help investors, enterprises, researchers and operators make decisions. Customers still need proof that the signals improve decisions enough to justify recurring spend.
What could break the thesis
Forecast signals fail to outperform existing indicators or cannot be packaged into trusted workflows.
Market WindowOpening
Buyer ClarityMedium
Competitive PressureMedium
Evidence StrengthMedium
What to validate first
Who pays for the signal, and can accuracy, timeliness or decision value be demonstrated over time?
4. Distribution Infrastructure
Brokerage, wealth and retail access
5 evidence signals
1 related question
emerging readiness
Canadian retail distribution, wallet integrations, sports partnerships and operator relaunch activity show that event contracts are moving through channels that already have users, compliance obligations and product discovery workflows.
The opportunity is the access layer around event contracts: brokerage integrations, suitability controls, education, product limits, risk warnings, onboarding, reporting and venue connectivity.
What could break the thesis
Distribution remains locked inside a small number of large brokers, exchanges or wallet platforms that build the access layer themselves.
Market WindowEmerging
Buyer ClarityMedium
Competitive PressureHigh
Evidence StrengthGrowing
What to validate first
Can brokers or wealth platforms justify a specialized event contract access layer rather than relying on venue supplied tools?
5. Enterprise Event Risk Infrastructure
Promotion, campaign and business exposure
3 evidence signals
1 related question
early readiness
Event contracts are beginning to appear in practical business settings, including promotion risk management and event exposure. This suggests a possible enterprise use case beyond retail speculation and market forecasting.
The opportunity is infrastructure that helps brands, agencies and enterprises model, cap, transfer or monitor event driven exposure. This remains earlier than the other paths, but it could become a repeatable category if more non financial buyers adopt event contracts for operational risk.
What could break the thesis
Enterprise use remains a novelty or occasional hedge rather than a repeatable workflow with budget.
Market WindowEarly
Buyer ClarityLow
Competitive PressureLow
Evidence StrengthEarly
What to validate first
Which repeatable enterprise event risks are measurable, hedgeable and large enough to support a dedicated product?
Evidence Trail
28 verified evidence items
Filter by signal type to review source records, early market signals and thought leadership supporting this opportunity. Evidence is sorted newest to oldest.
When should event contracts be treated as financial market infrastructure rather than consumer prediction products?
What integrity controls are needed when prediction markets price politics, sports, geopolitics or company specific events?
Where is the strongest venture opening: exchange infrastructure, compliance tooling, market data, distribution or risk controls?
How should Canadian platforms evaluate event contracts as regulated products evolve in the United States?
Can forecast data become a trusted financial information product without creating manipulation or disclosure risks?
Resources
NCFA Financial Innovation Map— NCFA map of financial innovation concepts, opportunity nodes and adjacent product paths.
CFTC Proposed Rules— Official source for proposed federal derivatives rulemaking and public interest determinations.
CFTC Designated Contract Markets— Reference point for regulated exchange oversight, market integrity and contract listing context.
CIRO Rules And Enforcement— Canadian market conduct and dealer oversight context relevant to regulated access and distribution.
OSC Rules And Policies— Canadian securities policy reference for market structure, investor protection and regulated products.
Participate In This Opportunity
Share your perspective, research, case study or video response. You can also express interest in future discussions, collaboration opportunities and innovation activities related to this topic.
NCFA Opportunity Intelligence tracks emerging venture opportunities using evidence, market developments and validation signals. Opportunity briefs are updated as new information, evidence and stakeholder perspectives become available.
This content is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute legal, investment, financial, tax or professional advice.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
Online casino gaming has become one of the most popular forms of entertainment in Canada. Canadian players have access to thousands of casino games, ranging from classic slot machines and blackjack tables to live dealer experiences that closely replicate the atmosphere of a land-based casino. With so many options available, choosing the best online casino games in Canada can be challenging.
This guide explains everything Canadian players need to know about online casino games, including the most popular game categories, payout percentages, house edges, winning potential, gameplay mechanics, and tips for selecting the right games.
What Are the Best Online Casino Games in Canada?
The best online casino games in Canada combine strong payout potential, entertaining gameplay, fair odds, and accessibility across desktop and mobile devices. Canadian players consistently favour the following game categories:
Online slots
Blackjack
Roulette
Baccarat
Live dealer games
Video poker
Poker variants
Bingo
Keno
Specialty and crash games
Among all casino games available online, blackjack generally offers the lowest house edge when played with optimal strategy, while slots remain the most popular choice because of their simplicity and massive jackpot opportunities.
Why Online Casino Games Are So Popular in Canada
Online casino games allow Canadian players to enjoy casino entertainment from virtually anywhere. Modern casino platforms offer thousands of games, fast-loading mobile applications, secure payment methods, and live dealer technology.
Several factors contribute to their popularity:
Convenient access 24/7
Wide variety of game options
Low minimum deposit requirements
Progressive jackpot opportunities
Live dealer experiences
Mobile compatibility
Flexible betting limits
The growth of regulated online gambling markets, particularly in Ontario, has further increased player confidence in online casino gaming.
Online Slots: Canada's Most Popular Casino Game
Online slots remain the most-played casino games in Canada. Industry sources estimate that slots account for the majority of wagers placed on Canadian online casinos due to their simplicity, variety, and jackpot potential.
Why Canadians Love Online Slots
Online slots require no prior experience or strategy. Players simply select a bet amount and spin the reels.
Benefits include:
Thousands of game themes
Bonus features
Free spins
Progressive jackpots
Mobile-friendly gameplay
Low betting requirements
Popular Slot Titles in Canada
Canadian players frequently enjoy games such as:
Starburst
Sweet Bonanza
Big Bass Bonanza
Gates of Olympus
Book of Dead
Mega Moolah
Many of these titles offer RTP percentages between 94% and 97%, while some exceed 98%.
Slot RTP Explained
Return to Player (RTP) represents the theoretical percentage of wagers returned to players over the long term.
For example:
96% RTP = approximately $96 returned for every $100 wagered over millions of spins.
98% RTP = approximately $98 returned for every $100 wagered over millions of spins.
Higher RTP percentages generally indicate better long-term value.
Blackjack: The Best Casino Game for Odds
Blackjack is widely considered the best online casino game in Canada for players seeking favourable odds.
Unlike slots, blackjack involves strategic decision-making that can significantly reduce the house edge.
Why Blackjack Offers Excellent Value
Blackjack provides:
House edge as low as 0.5%
Strategic gameplay
Fast rounds
Multiple variations
Live dealer options
Experienced players who use basic blackjack strategy can achieve some of the best odds available in any online casino game.
Popular Blackjack Variants
Canadian online casinos commonly offer:
Classic Blackjack
European Blackjack
Single Deck Blackjack
Blackjack Switch
Spanish 21
Live Blackjack
Blackjack Strategy Basics
Blackjack strategy focuses on making mathematically optimal decisions based on the dealer's visible card.
Key principles include:
Standing on strong totals
Hitting weak hands
Splitting pairs appropriately
Using double-down opportunities
Players who learn these fundamentals can significantly improve their long-term results.
Roulette: The Classic Casino Favourite
Roulette remains one of the most recognizable casino games in Canada.
The game revolves around predicting where a ball will land on a spinning wheel.
Types of Roulette Available Online
Canadian casinos typically offer:
European Roulette
French Roulette
American Roulette
Live Roulette
Lightning Roulette
Which Roulette Version Is Best?
French Roulette generally provides the best odds because of special rules that reduce the house edge.
Typical house edges include:
French Roulette: 1.35%
European Roulette: 2.70%
American Roulette: 5.26%
For players focused on maximizing value, French Roulette is often the preferred option.
Roulette Betting Options
Players can wager on:
Single numbers
Colours
Odd or even
Dozens
Columns
Number ranges
This flexibility appeals to both beginners and experienced players.
Baccarat: The Choice of High Rollers
Baccarat is one of the simplest casino games available online.
The objective is to predict which hand will win:
Player
Banker
Tie
Why Baccarat Is Popular
Baccarat attracts players because:
Rules are easy to understand
Gameplay is fast
House edge is low
Minimal strategy is required
The Banker bet typically carries a house edge around 1.06%, making it one of the most favourable wagers in online casinos.
Best Baccarat Bet
The Banker bet consistently offers the strongest mathematical advantage.
Most experts recommend avoiding the Tie bet because of its significantly higher house edge.
Live Dealer Casino Games
Live dealer casino games have experienced significant growth among Canadian players.
These games use real dealers who operate tables through live video streams.
Benefits of Live Dealer Games
Live dealer games offer:
Real-time interaction
Authentic casino atmosphere
Professional dealers
Transparent gameplay
HD video streaming
Popular live games include:
Live Blackjack
Live Roulette
Live Baccarat
Live Poker
Game Shows
Providers such as Evolution Gaming have become especially popular among Canadian players.
Live Casino Game Shows
Modern live casinos also offer entertainment-focused game shows such as:
Crazy Time
Monopoly Live
Dream Catcher
Mega Wheel
These games combine casino mechanics with television-style presentations.
Video Poker: One of the Highest RTP Games
Video poker combines slot machine mechanics with poker strategy.
Players receive cards and choose which cards to hold before drawing replacements.
Why Video Poker Stands Out
Video poker offers:
High RTP percentages
Strategic gameplay
Quick sessions
Multiple game variations
Some versions of Jacks or Better can achieve RTP figures above 99% when played optimally.
Popular Video Poker Variants
Canadian casinos commonly feature:
Jacks or Better
Deuces Wild
Double Bonus Poker
Joker Poker
Specialty and Crash Games
Specialty games have become increasingly popular at online casinos.
These games often provide unique gameplay compared to traditional casino titles.
Examples include:
Aviator
Plinko
Mines
Crash
Dice Games
Many younger players enjoy these games because of their fast-paced action and straightforward mechanics.
Which Online Casino Games Have the Best RTP?
Players looking for the highest potential returns should focus on games with strong RTP percentages.
Highest RTP Online Casino Games
Game
Approximate RTP
Video Poker
Up to 99.9%
Blackjack
Up to 99.5%
Baccarat (Banker Bet)
98.9%
French Roulette
98.65%
High-RTP Slots
96%–98%
Higher RTP does not guarantee profits, but it generally improves long-term value.
How to Choose the Best Online Casino Game
The best game depends on personal preferences and goals.
For Beginners
Recommended games:
Slots
Baccarat
Roulette
These games require minimal learning.
For Strategic Players
Recommended games:
Blackjack
Video Poker
Poker Variants
These games reward skill and decision-making.
For Jackpot Hunters
Recommended games:
Progressive Slots
Mega Jackpot Games
These titles offer the largest potential payouts.
For Real Casino Atmosphere
Recommended games:
Live Blackjack
Live Roulette
Live Baccarat
Live dealer tables provide the closest experience to a physical casino.
Canadian players should only play on reputable, licensed casino platforms that provide responsible gambling tools and support resources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best online casino game in Canada?
Blackjack is often considered the best online casino game in Canada because it offers one of the lowest house edges when played with proper strategy.
Which casino game has the highest RTP?
Video poker and blackjack generally provide the highest RTP percentages available at online casinos.
Are online slots popular in Canada?
Online slots are the most popular online casino games in Canada because they offer simple gameplay, large jackpots, and thousands of themes.
What is the safest online casino game to play?
Baccarat and blackjack are often considered among the safest options because they feature relatively low house edges.
Are live dealer games worth playing?
Live dealer games are worth playing for players who enjoy real-time interaction and a more authentic casino experience.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
June 16, 2026 | NCFA Story Intelligence | Fraud, Cybersecurity And Trust
AI Clones, Biometric Risk, Faster Payments And The Fight To Prove What Is Real
The phone rings. Many people no longer answer.
Not because they’re too busy. Because they’re not sure who is calling, what’s real, or whether the message is safe to trust. That small behaviour change tells a bigger story about finance, fraud, identity, and technology.
For years, financial trust relied on familiar signals: a voice, a face, a password, a bank name, a phone number, a regulator, a delay before money moved. AI clones, biometric breaches, deepfakes, cyberattacks, weak AML controls, and faster payments are now breaking those signals at the same time.
Financial trust used to have more time. Branch visits, paper signatures, settlement delays, call centre checks, account holds, and human review gave institutions more room to spot problems before money moved too far. The system was slower, but that slowness created time to verify.
Consumers learned to trust familiar signals. A bank logo felt official. A caller who knew account details sounded credible. A voice sounded personal. A password felt private. Those signals were never perfect, but they worked well enough when fraud was slower, less automated, and easier to recognize.
Trust Used To Move SlowlyBefore Digital Scale
Older financial systems weren’t fraud proof. They were time rich. Verification happened across people, documents, branches, phone calls, and settlement windows. The digital shift didn’t remove the need for trust. It compressed the time available to prove it.
Online finance moved trust away from the branch. Banking, investing, lending, crypto, payments, and onboarding shifted into screens and apps. That created better access and faster service, but it also made customers depend on passwords, text codes, device checks, email links, and remote identity tools.
Fraudsters followed the customer online. Phishing, fake websites, account takeover, crypto wallet scams, approval phishing, QR abuse, and spoofed support channels made digital convenience feel less certain. Operation Avalanche showed how coordinated fraud response is becoming part of the market.
The Internet Changed Identity2000s to 2020s
Digital finance made onboarding, investing, banking, and payments easier. It also moved trust into remote channels that fraudsters could imitate. The question became less “do I recognize this institution?” and more “is this message, login, device, account, person, or transaction actually real?”
Voice used to feel personal. Then AI cloning made it copyable. Cloned voices bypassed Voice ID tests at Santander and Halifax, exposing weakness in systems that treated a voice as a reliable authentication signal.1
The scam no longer has to sound like a scam. A cloned voice can sound calm, familiar, urgent, or official. That changes the risk for banks, call centres, families, executives, seniors, and anyone asked to approve a transfer or share information after hearing a voice they think they know.
Your Voice Is No Longer Yours2024
Voice authentication worked because a voice felt unique. AI weakens that assumption. Once a voice can be copied, the problem is no longer only who is speaking. It is whether the system can prove the voice belongs to the person authorized to act.
Learn more
Voice cloning turns a trust shortcut into a risk surface. A customer may hear a familiar voice. A bank may hear a voiceprint. A fraudster may see both as tools to exploit. That forces financial institutions to treat voice as one signal inside a layered verification model, not as proof on its own.
Questions worth watching
Will banks continue using voice authentication as a primary signal?
How quickly will call centres add stronger liveness and behaviour checks?
Will consumers still trust phone based banking if voices can be cloned?
Biometrics raise the stakes because they cannot be replaced easily. A major India breach exposed fingerprints, facial scans, and sensitive records tied to police officers and applicants.2 A password can be reset. A fingerprint can’t.
Fintech products increasingly depend on biometric convenience. Face ID, Touch ID, palm payment, device based onboarding, and selfie checks reduce friction. They can also concentrate risk if biometric templates, face scans, or identity documents are stored poorly or exposed through vendors.
Biometrics Become Permanent Risk2024
Biometrics promise stronger identity checks because they are tied to the body. That is also the problem. When biometric data is compromised, the harm can follow a person for years. Convenience becomes dangerous if the system cannot protect the thing it asks people to trust most.
Deepfakes make fraud feel human. Deepfake scams have used AI generated voices, fake identities, digital banks, and crypto rails to trick victims and move funds quickly.3
AI makes deception cheaper to personalize. Fraudsters can imitate an executive, a family member, a bank employee, a support agent, or an investment promoter. The scam can be written better, timed better, targeted better, and delivered through channels that look more legitimate than old phishing emails.
AI Gives Fraud Scale2025 to 2026
AI changes the economics of deception. More scams can be personalized. More identities can be synthesized. More messages can be tested. More attacks can be automated. Fraud moves from a labour intensive crime to something closer to a scalable service.
Learn more
OSFI and the Global Risk Institute flagged synthetic identity, deepfakes, voice spoofing, AI assisted cyberattacks, fraud as a service, and disinformation as regulated AI risks. That matters because financial institutions aren’t only using AI to serve customers. They’re also defending against attackers who can use similar tools.
Questions worth watching
Will AI fraud detection improve faster than AI enabled deception?
Can financial firms verify identity without making onboarding painful?
How will regulators test whether AI controls actually work?
Faster money gives fraud less time to fail. Real Time Rail, instant payments, request to pay, and faster settlement can improve cash flow and customer experience. They also shrink the window for fraud teams to stop a bad payment before it settles.
Fraud controls become part of the payment product. Real Time Rail analysis connects instant payments with centralized fraud capability, payment finality, and trust.4 Faster money only works if participants believe the system can manage faster mistakes.
Money Starts Moving Too Fast To Chase2026
Speed is not the enemy. Unverified speed is. The more quickly money moves, the more trust has to be built before approval, not after. That shifts fraud prevention upstream into identity, behaviour, device signals, transaction context, and real time monitoring.
Institutions are not only defenders. They are targets. CIRO confirmed approximately 750,000 Canadian investors were affected by a cybersecurity incident after a 9,000 hour forensic review.5 When regulated bodies are breached, trust damage extends beyond one account.
Third party systems can carry hidden risk. SaaS vendors can create concentration risk across fintech and financial services. A startup may inherit risk through a vendor, API, data processor, onboarding tool, cloud provider, or fraud vendor it does not fully control.
Institutions Become Targets Too2025 to 2026
Trust is not only about customers proving themselves to institutions. Institutions have to prove they can protect customer data, vendor systems, transaction flows, and controls. Once a trusted organization is breached, every future message from that organization becomes easier for fraudsters to imitate.
AML failure shows how controls can become business risk. TD’s more than $3 billion US AML penalty and leadership fallout showed how weak controls can limit strategy, growth, reputation, and trust.6
Canada is trying to organize the response. Canada’s first National Anti Fraud Strategy and Financial Crimes Agency push point toward more public and private collaboration on cyber risk, data sharing, and proceeds of crime recovery.7
Controls Become A Business Model2024 to 2026
Fraud prevention is no longer back office plumbing. It is becoming product design, customer experience, regulatory readiness, operational resilience, and competitive positioning. Banks, fintechs, PSPs, crypto platforms, identity providers, regtech firms, and payment networks are all being judged on whether they can help users trust what they approve.
Learn more
This creates a hard design problem. Strong controls can stop fraud, but they can also freeze legitimate customers, slow onboarding, block payments, and make good users feel punished. Weak controls create the opposite problem. They let fraud through and damage trust after the fact.
The next generation of fraud systems will need to combine identity checks, device signals, behavioural analytics, payment context, transaction monitoring, anomaly detection, customer education, and fast recovery paths. These capabilities are already becoming part of Canada’s trust and verification innovation pipeline.
Questions worth watching
Can fraud controls become stronger without making good customers suffer?
Will fintechs compete on trust as much as speed and price?
Can public and private data sharing improve without creating new privacy risks?
Fraud didn’t break trust all at once. It weakened the signals people and institutions used to verify reality. The phone call. The voice. The face. The fingerprint. The login. The bank name. The official looking message. The settlement delay. The regulated institution. Each one still matters, but none can carry trust on its own anymore.
That’s the hard part for financial innovation. Canada is moving toward faster payments, consumer driven banking, digital identity discussions, AI adoption, crypto market controls, and more automated financial services. None of those systems succeed simply because they’re fast or digital. They succeed because people trust what they’re seeing, hearing, approving, and authorizing.
What Happens Next?
Will banks and fintechs find better ways to prove what is real without making financial services harder to use?
Will AI fraud detection improve faster than AI enabled scams?
Will voice, face, fingerprint, and device signals become supporting evidence instead of standalone proof?
Will faster payments force stronger verification before money moves?
Will consumers regain trust in calls, messages, links, and alerts from financial institutions?
Can Canada build fraud intelligence sharing that protects consumers without weakening privacy?
What Did You Think?
What trust signal do you question now that you wouldn’t have questioned five years ago?
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The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
June 16, 2025 | NCFA Resource | Risk Compliance And Regtech, Artificial Intelligence And Data, Regulation And Policy
Practical Oversight Tools For AI Use In Capital Markets
On May 25, 2026, the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) published its Supervisory Toolkit for Artificial Intelligence Use in Capital Markets. The report provides practical tools for regulators supervising AI systems used by market participants, exchanges, investment firms, and capital market infrastructure providers.
The toolkit arrives as AI goes beyond experimentation and into production environments across trading, surveillance, compliance, onboarding, fraud detection, customer service, research, risk management, and operational workflows. IOSCO focuses on the supervisory questions regulators need to ask rather than promoting a specific technology approach.
Stakeholder Input Opportunity:IOSCO is also seeking feedback related to the toolkit and AI supervision in capital markets. Interested regulators, market participants, technology providers, academics, and industry stakeholders can review the report and submit responses to IOSCO by this short surveyby June 26, 2026.
What The Toolkit Covers
The report organizes supervision around seven areas. These include governance and accountability, model development and testing, data quality and management, monitoring and controls, outsourcing and third party providers, market conduct risks, and operational resilience.
Rather than prescribing rules, IOSCO provides supervisory questions, review approaches, and practical considerations that regulators can use when assessing AI systems operating in capital markets. The toolkit is designed to support risk based supervision while remaining flexible as technologies evolve.
The report also recognizes that AI risks often emerge from combinations of factors rather than a single model failure. Poor quality data, weak governance, limited oversight, inadequate testing, vendor dependencies, and insufficient monitoring can interact in ways that create market, operational, or investor protection concerns.
Why It Matters
Many financial institutions are already deploying AI in regulated environments. The challenge is no longer whether AI will be used. The challenge is whether firms can demonstrate appropriate governance, explainability, oversight, and accountability once those systems affect clients, markets, or investment decisions.
For fintech operators, the toolkit offers a useful preview of the questions regulators may increasingly ask during examinations, supervisory reviews, audits, and risk assessments. Firms that build governance and controls into deployment processes early may face fewer compliance and operational challenges as expectations mature.
Who Gets Value
This resource is useful for securities regulators, exchanges, investment dealers, fintech founders, regtech providers, compliance teams, AI governance specialists, risk managers, and market infrastructure operators.
It is especially relevant for organizations using AI in trading, surveillance, onboarding, fraud detection, compliance monitoring, client communications, investment research, portfolio management, or operational decision making.
Strengths And Limits
The strength of the toolkit is its practical orientation. It extends beyond high level AI principles and focuses on supervision, controls, accountability, and operational implementation. The framework can be applied across a wide range of AI use cases and organizational structures.
It also provides a common language that regulators and industry participants can use when discussing AI oversight. That consistency becomes increasingly important as firms operate across multiple jurisdictions with different regulatory approaches.
The toolkit does not create binding rules or regulatory obligations. IOSCO's role is to provide guidance and supervisory tools that member jurisdictions can adapt to their own legal and regulatory frameworks.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
Jun 16, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Payments And Market Infrastructure, Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization
Multi CBDC Settlement Infrastructure Approaches Operational Use
On June 14, 2026, the Financial Times reported that China is preparing mBridge for commercial rollout (subscription needed), with central banks from mainland China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia involved.
The participating central banks haven't yet published a matching launch announcement. The Bank for International Settlements said mBridge reached minimum viable product stage in 2024 and that more central banks and commercial banks could join the legal framework and perform real transactions on the platform.
mBridge is important to watch because it tests a different model for cross border settlement. Instead of routing payments through long correspondent banking chains, participating central banks and commercial banks use a shared multi CBDC platform for payment and foreign exchange settlement. That makes the project a practical test of whether wholesale CBDC rails can reduce cost, settlement delay and liquidity friction in trade corridors where participating jurisdictions already have strong commercial ties.
Five Years Of Development Nears Commercial Test
mBridge began in 2021 with the BIS Innovation Hub, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Bank of Thailand, the Central Bank of the UAE and the Digital Currency Institute of the People’s Bank of China. Saudi Arabia joined as a full participant in 2024. BIS also identified more than 26 observing members, including the European Central Bank, IMF, World Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Korea, Bank of France and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s New York Innovation Center.
The project has already gone beyond lab testing. The HKMA said the 2022 pilot involved 20 banks across four jurisdictions and completed more than 160 payment and foreign exchange transactions totaling over HK$171 million. It was among the first multi CBDC projects to settle real value cross border transactions on behalf of corporates.
BIS later said the MVP platform allowed participating jurisdictions to undertake real value transactions, subject to their own readiness. The project also created a governance and legal framework, including a rulebook, to match its decentralized operating model. That's why the current story isn't whether CBDCs can be piloted. It's whether participating jurisdictions can turn mBridge into operating payment infrastructure?
mBridge And Agorá Are Solving Different Problems
mBridge should be read alongside Project Agorá tests real money bank settlement rails. Agorá is testing tokenized commercial bank deposits and wholesale central bank money with major Western central banks and more than 40 commercial banks. mBridge is testing a direct multi CBDC settlement network among participating jurisdictions.
The difference is important for Canadian banks, exporters, fintechs and policymakers. Agorá is closer to upgrading existing correspondent banking through tokenized deposits and shared workflows. mBridge is closer to building a parallel wholesale settlement arrangement for selected currency corridors. Both are trying to reduce payment friction, but they reflect different governance choices, legal assumptions and geopolitical incentives.
The commercial test is liquidity, compliance and repeat usage. If real trade flows begin routing through mBridge, banks and payment firms will have to assess whether lower cost and faster settlement justify the legal, operational and supervisory work needed to connect to a new network.
Compliance And Sanctions Questions Stay Open
The sensitive issue is whether a new wholesale settlement network can preserve anti money laundering controls, sanctions compliance, legal certainty and supervisory visibility across jurisdictions with different policy goals. Debate around mBridge's geopolitical implications has followed the project for years. See:mBridge could affect sanctions enforcement and payment routing.
In 2024, BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens said the BIS handoff of mBridge to participating central banks was not politically driven and was not a sign of project failure. He also said mBridge was not mature enough to operate commercially at that time and rejected the claim that it was designed as a BRICS sanctions workaround.
That tension remains central. If mBridge enters commercial use, participating institutions will need to prove that faster settlement isn't at the expense of enforceable controls, transaction monitoring, governance accountability or cross border legal clarity.
Talking Point
If wholesale CBDC networks start carrying real trade flows, how should Canada position payment modernization so Canadian banks, exporters and fintechs can participate in the infrastructure race instead of only reacting to it?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. 
