Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Economy | February 6, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a speech at the Empire Club of Canada called 'Structural Change - Canada at Crossroads' warning that Canada has reached a productivity crossroads, where long standing structural limits now cap growth, wages, and competitiveness. Inflation no longer defines the constraint. Productivity does. For founders, investors, and policymakers, the question is no longer whether innovation exists in Canada, but whether the economic system allows it to scale. Of course, many stakeholders have been eluding to this data-driven fact for a decade, including NCFA.
“Canada’s productivity performance has been weak for a long time, and that limits how fast our economy can grow.”
Macklem identifies productivity as the binding constraint on Canada’s economic outlook. The data is clear. According to OECD GDP per hour worked data, Canada’s labour productivity remains well below the United States and has fallen further behind over the past decade. In 2023, Canada produced roughly 72% of US output per hour worked, a gap that continues to widen.
The Bank of Canada links this shortfall to weak business investment, slow technology adoption, and limited competitive pressure. These factors suppress output growth even as employment rises. As a result, wage growth, firm profitability, and national competitiveness all face structural limits.
NCFA analysis shows that productivity challenges increasingly reflect underinvestment in digital infrastructure, automation, and scalable financial systems rather than a shortage of talent or ideas. For example, see: Breaking Canada’s Productivity Trap For Stronger Growth or Fintech’s Role In Canada’s Productivity Revival or Canada's Productivity Depends on Intangible Tech Adoption, which detail how capital misallocation and limited competition slow modernization across sectors.
For fintech founders, productivity gaps point to unmet demand for tools that reduce friction in payments, lending, compliance, and data driven decision making. Where legacy systems persist, productivity losses accumulate across the economy.
“More competition pushes firms to innovate, invest, and become more productive.”
Macklem ties productivity directly to competitive intensity. Where markets concentrate, firms face less pressure to adopt new technology or improve efficiency. Canada’s financial services sector illustrates this clearly. In fact, the Bank of Canada's Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Rogers, called Canada's banking system an Oligopoly. Concentration in lending, payments, and capital markets slows adoption of new models that could lower costs for businesses.
NCFA tracks this dynamic, here are just a couple of examples: How Competition Powers Canada’s Economic Growth and Why SME Loan Competition In Canada Is Under Review.
Small and medium sized businesses feel the impact most. Limited lender choice raises borrowing costs and lengthens approval timelines. For fintech lenders and embedded finance platforms, this reinforces demand for modern credit models that expand access while maintaining risk discipline.
“Investment needs to flow to the firms that can grow and raise productivity.”
Canada’s venture capital structure continues to constrain scale. According to RBCx data, Canadian VC Fundraising Contracts And Concentrates, raising just over $2 billion in 2025. Capital concentrates heavily. The top five funds account for roughly 83% of total capital raised, while emerging managers raise approximately $249 million.
At the same time, total venture investment reached about $4.9 billion across 386 deals through the first nine months of 2025, compared with roughly $8.6 billion across all of 2024. These figures describe two forces in the same system. Fundraising concentrates while deployment becomes more selective.
For founders, capital access becomes a strategic constraint rather than a timing issue. For investors, it narrows the pool of companies able to scale inside Canada.
“Good policy supports competition, investment, and long term growth.”
Macklem acknowledges that productivity doesn't improve in a vacuum. Firms respond to the regulatory environment they operate in. When compliance costs rise faster than firms' capacity, or when rules favour incumbents over new entrants, productivity suffers.
NCFA has consistently shown that regulatory design plays a decisive role in whether innovation scales. When rules increase cost or delay without improving outcomes, firms delay investment and avoid experimentation. Productivity improves when regulation supports entry, proportional compliance, and faster market testing, as outlined in Innovative Approaches to Smarter Regulation and Overcoming Barriers to Growth in Financial Regulation.
Smarter regulation does not weaken safeguards. It reduces duplication, improves clarity, and aligns oversight with actual risk. Jurisdictions that achieve this balance create space for competition and faster technology adoption, lessons explored in Lessons for Canada from Global Leaders in Regulation.
“Efficient financial systems help capital move to its most productive uses.”
Macklem’s remarks extend naturally to payments infrastructure. Canada payments system processes enormous transaction volumes, reaching $12.2 trillion in 2024, yet modernization remains uneven.
Slow settlement and high transaction costs lengthen working capital cycles and increase operational risk, especially for SMEs. The productivity impact of faster payments and modern rails can't be understated as many countries rush to modernize their payment ecosystem and functionality, including Canada who has been working to update it's payment system for years and only now making progress being under the gun.
For fintech builders, payments remain one of the most direct ways to improve productivity across the economy.
“Productivity growth depends on the environment firms operate in.”
Macklem’s framing helps explain why successful Canadian built companies increasingly scale elsewhere. Why A $35M Built In Canada Startup Still Moved To The US, shows how growth stage constraints shape founder decisions even after proving traction at home. When capital pools, market size, and regulatory pathways align more clearly abroad, relocation of entrepreneurs and venture brain drain mirrors operating decisions, not national sentiment.
This trend reinforces the need to address productivity, competition, capital access, and regulation together rather than treating talent retention as a standalone issue. Founders are now at crossroads, and trying to make it work within system constraints.
When capital, regulation, and market access align, firms stay. When they do not, firms move.
Macklem’s speech aligns closely with the productivity, competition, and innovation themes NCFA has tracked and raised for years. Productivity improves when competition deepens, capital flows efficiently, regulation supports entry, and technology adoption accelerates. Fintech sits at the intersection of all four.
Policy tools that support SME expansion, such as export financing and market access programs, can reinforce financial innovation when aligned properly. Programs like CanExport SMEs show how capital support and operational scale can work together rather than in isolation. The challenge now is execution. Productivity gains come from systems that allow new firms to compete, scale, and deploy technology without unnecessary friction.
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The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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February 6, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Activity | Digital Banking and Regulation

Image: Freepik/lifeforstock
On January 29 2026, Nu received US bank approval to establish a US national bank under the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
The company said the approval supports its plan to build a federally chartered bank in the United States, subject to conditions and further steps before the bank can begin operating. A national bank structure sits at the core of how US banking works, including capital rules, governance expectations, and ongoing supervision.
Nu operates a large digital banking platform across Latin America. A US charter path places the firm inside a regime built for deposit taking institutions, not for sponsor bank partnerships or program structures. That changes what the company must build behind the scenes, including compliance controls, audit readiness, and risk management that can stand up to sustained regulatory oversight.
For founders and investors, this is a clean reminder about where scale often ends up. A fintech can grow quickly with product and distribution. A fintech can protect that growth only when it builds the governance and control stack that regulators and counterparties demand at national scale and volume.
A US national bank charter also sets a different operating ceiling. It can support a broader product set, a more direct funding base, and national reach under a single federal framework, but it comes with tighter obligations and less room for improvisation.
When a fintech steps into full bank regulation, which capability becomes the real constraint, distribution, underwriting, or the control stack that keeps regulators and partners confident?
Nu now faces an execution test that rewards operational strength, not marketing. Teams that incorporate governance as a product feature can sometimes scale faster because large buyers and regulators stop asking the same questions.

The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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SME Export Program | February 5, 2026

Image: Freepik
On February 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the Trade Commissioner Service (TCS) confirmed that the 2026 to 2027 CanExport SME support program is now accepting applications until May 29 at 12:00 PM ET. This federal program provides non-repayable cost-sharing support to Canadian small-and-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) pursuing new international markets where they have little or no existing sales.
This intake arrives as Canada emphasizes export diversification beyond traditional partners and as many growth stage companies look for practical financial support to reduce the cost and risk of entering foreign jurisdictions.
CanExport SMEs reimburses up to 50% of eligible export development costs, with a maximum contribution of $50,000 per project. The official program overview of eligible export activities shows that funding covers travel to foreign markets, participation in trade events, custom market research, legal and advisory services, and adapting marketing materials for international buyers.
For many SMEs, these early activities determine whether international expansion remains 'stuck in planning mode' or becomes a revenue stream. By sharing the cost of these steps, the program reduces the upfront burden that often delays export implementation.
Eligibility requirements for the 2026 to 2027 CanExport SMEs program has been updated to introduce higher thresholds that gear the program toward export-ready companies. Applicants must now employ at least 3 full time employees in Canada and report at least $300,000 in annual revenue in the most recent reporting year.
The update does not identify fintech or other technology sectors as priorities, but it confirms the program remains open to most business sectors that meet the revised eligibility rules, with the removal of conventional agriculture, agri food, fish, and seafood. Fintech companies that operate as for profit SMEs and pursue new global markets are eligible when their projects focus on export development activities, such as market entry research, buyer engagement, regulatory or legal preparation, and international business development. For fintechs selling software, platforms, or regulated services abroad, CanExport can support early market validation and commercial outreach, even though the program does not offer sector specific treatment.
The same update also revises target market rules. Applicants may target either the United States or other international markets within a single project, but not both, and each country now counts as one market toward the project maximum of five markets. These rules affect how companies structure export plans and select priority markets.
The CanExport SMEs applicant guide confirms that eligible applicants must operate as a for profit business legally established in Canada, employ between 3 and 500 full time employees, report between $300,000 and $100 million in annual revenue, and target markets where current sales remain limited or nonexistent.
These rules direct funding toward companies that show readiness to translate export activity into measurable commercial outcomes.
The CanExport SMEs intake gives prospective Canadian exports a defined window to secure federal support for international growth. Companies that prepare early, define clear target markets, and build detailed activity plans stand the strongest chance of approval before the May 29 deadline.
Many Canadian firms hesitate to enter new markets because of cost, uncertainty, and lack of local knowledge. CanExport directly addresses those barriers by sharing the financial burden of research, travel, legal preparation, and buyer engagement.
As Canada pushes companies to diversify trade relationships, this program offers practical support that helps exporters convert international interest into structured market entry.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Feb 5, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Activity | AI and Finance Innovation

On January 21 2026, Calgary-based Chata Technologies Chata.ai closed a US$10 million Series A to expand its deterministic AI analytics platform for financial services, backed by 7RIDGE (UK) and Izou Partners (US).
Chata.ai focuses on a model that produces repeatable, auditable answers to natural language questions over financial data. In plain terms, deterministic AI means the system gives the same answer every time to the same question, with a clear record of how it arrived there. Instead of relying on probabilistic GPU driven models, its system runs inference on CPUs and is designed for environments where consistency, traceability, and explainability matter. Financial teams can query data directly without dashboards or engineering support while maintaining a clear audit trail.
The company says funding will support growth across traditional finance, digital asset platforms, and wealth technology use cases where AI tools must operate inside compliance and risk frameworks. Investors pointed to the platform’s ability to combine scale, cost efficiency, and verifiable outputs as a practical fit for regulated finance workflows.
Kelly Cherniwchan, Chief Executive Officer, Chata Technologies:
“This investment allows us to bring trusted data analytics to financial institutions where precision, reliability, and regulatory clarity are critical.”
Deterministic AI changes the conversation for finance teams. The value is in being able to ask a question twice and receive the same answer, with a record of how that answer was produced.
When financial institutions adopt AI tools, will platforms that provide auditability and consistent outputs become the standard over systems that produce variable results?
Financial firms want AI that fits inside existing control structures rather than sitting outside them. Deterministic models may become a foundation layer for analytics, reporting, risk review, and automated decision support across regulated finance.

The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer to peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada’s Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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