Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Mar 25, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Regulation And Policy, Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

Sports volume built the business. Now rules, surveillance, and product limits will decide who lasts. On March 23, 2026, a bipartisan Senate bill moved to ban sports and casino style contracts on CFTC registered prediction market venues. The Senate release said a March Madness winner contract had already passed $100M in trading volume and that Super Bowl prediction market volume topped $1B in 2026.
Those numbers explain why prediction markets are now under direct pressure from lawmakers. Prediction markets are no longer fringe. They now sit in a fight over who regulates them, which contracts stay allowed, and whether the business still works under tighter rules.
Sports helped prediction markets reach a wide audience fast, but that same growth put them in direct competition with state regulated sportsbooks and tribal gaming interests. The Prediction Market Senate bill to ban sports contracts is aimed straight at that overlap. It would prohibit any CFTC registered entity from listing contracts that closely resemble a sports bet or a casino style game. If it advances, sports contracts would be the first part of the business to take a hit. That in itself wouldn't kill prediction markets, but it would force a reset around contracts that look more like economic, financial, or commercial forecasting and less like entertainment wagering.
Sports contracts brought scale, attention, and league partnerships. NCFA looked at that earlier when the NHL partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports now look like the part of the business most likely to trigger a stronger federal and state response.
Polymarket and Kalshi tightened their controls on the same day. On March 23, Polymarket tightened its market integrity rules across both its DeFi venue and its CFTC regulated US exchange. The updated rules ban trading on stolen confidential information, illegal tips, and outcomes a trader can influence.
Kalshi added candidate and athlete trading bans covering political candidates, athletes, referees, coaches, and team staff, and introduced a whistleblower feature to tighten insider risk controls.
These aren't minor changes. They prove Kalshi and Polymarket understand that insider risk is now a live issue. Prediction markets want to be treated as financial infrastructure, but financial infrastructure has to show it can police insiders, document rules, and respond fast when abuse appears. NCFA covered that tension earlier when prediction markets started pricing geopolitical events.
Canada is taking a narrower approach. The Globe and Mail reported today that Wealthsimple cleared a regulatory hurdle to offer forecast contracts in Canada, but only for economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. Sports and election contracts are out. Wealthsimple is the second firm to receive this approval in Canada, after Interactive Brokers Canada.
Interactive Brokers Canada has positioned contracts around government, economic, finance, and climate events, not sports books in a different wrapper. The product is already live in Canada on that basis.
Wealthsimple now brings local retail distribution, stronger brand reach, and a better chance of testing whether forecast contracts can find a market here without leaning on the sports volume that pushed the US fight into the open.
Can a prediction market still grow once sports contracts face a ban, insider screening gets tighter, and compliance costs rise? Some firms may adapt by leaning into macro, rates, inflation, climate, earnings, and other information markets. Others may find that the most profitable contracts were also the ones most likely to trigger a crackdown.
The CFTC is also reviewing the rules. On March 12 2026, the CFTC opened an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets and asked for public comment on which event contracts may be contrary to the public interest, how current rules apply, and what changes may be needed. That means this fight is not limited to one Senate bill or one week of headlines. The federal rule in the U.S. is now under review.
For Canadian dealers, fintechs, and market operators, there is room to build forecast products here, but the lane is narrower than in the US.
Prediction markets already proved they can attract users and volume. The next test is whether prediction markets can still grow once product limits tighten, regulators draw a harder line around what is allowed, and compliance demands rise.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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March 26, 2026

Airbnb was founded by Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia in 2008. They started their business on a shoestring budget, offering air mattresses on the floor for rent during a conference in San Francisco. The pair placed an advert offering a cheap room or ‘bed space’ with breakfast. As a result, they made a decent profit, which allowed them to pay the rent.
Money was needed to maintain the website offering mattresses for overnight stays. At the time, the election campaign was in full swing. The main frontrunners were Barack Obama and John McCain. The budding entrepreneurs bought cheap cereal and boxes and released limited-edition ready-made breakfasts with a personalised number and a high price tag of $40. The cereal cost just $1 per box. Thanks to media coverage and social media, the Obama boxes sold out in three days. The idea brought in $20–30,000.
It was from such a simple idea that the story of a company began, one that is now familiar to literally everyone.
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Oculus was founded in 2012 by Palmer Luckey, who created the first prototype of a virtual reality headset. By the age of 22, he was already worth $500 million. Out of curiosity, he collected a range of outdated virtual reality devices. One day, Laki managed to buy a headset that had once sold for $97,000 for just $87. To expand his collection, Laki taught himself electronics: he bought broken iPhones, repaired them and sold them on at a higher price. That’s how he made $30,000.
These unsuccessful older models became the basis for new developments. Palmer was simply an enthusiastic teenager who loved video games and science fiction films. It was solely through his enthusiasm and passion that the young man was able to create what experienced engineers had been trying to do before him.
Slack was created in 2013 as a tool for internal company communication. Tiny Speck, a company founded by Stewart Butterfield, developed the game Glitch, which flopped. However, in the process, a communication tool was created that became the foundation for Slack. The messenger with advanced functionality was launched in 2014. The platform quickly gained popularity by solving the problem of fragmented workplace communications.
Key factors in its success were word of mouth, an open platform with an API for integrating apps and bots, and a focus on organisational transformation. Slack works with competitors and offers integrations with various services: Google Calendar, Zoom and Microsoft Teams.
The company considers building an ecosystem to be a successful model for growth and meeting user needs. So it turns out that, by solving its own problems and challenges, the team created a service that many companies need.
The brand’s history began in 1965, when its founder, Fred DeLuca, opened a sandwich shop in Connecticut at the age of 17. This was how the future businessman decided to earn money to pay for his medical studies.
Peter Buck, a friend of his father’s, helped Fred open his first eatery, providing $1,000 to develop the business. Fred and Buck became business partners and were ‘fired up’ by the idea of creating a chain of restaurants across the state. DeLuca put his dream of becoming a doctor on hold and began learning the ropes of running a business. It is worth noting that in the early days, Fred made the sandwiches himself and managed to cope with the large flow of customers.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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March 24, 2026

If you're a high-earning Canadian trying to build wealth, you've likely been told to "max out your RRSP" or "use your TFSA first." The advice often sounds definitive - but rarely accounts for your actual situation. Both accounts offer powerful tax advantages, yet they work in fundamentally different ways. Choosing between them isn't just a tax question; it's a behavioral and strategic one that depends on your income trajectory, spending patterns, and psychological relationship with money.
Understanding how RRSPs and TFSAs actually function - and how your brain responds to each - can help you make smarter decisions that stick.
The Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) is a tax-deferred account. Contributions reduce your taxable income in the year you make them, and your investments grow tax-free inside the account. You pay tax only when you withdraw, ideally in retirement when your income - and tax rate - are lower. For 2024, the contribution limit is 18% of your previous year's earned income, up to $31,560. [1]
The Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) works differently. You contribute with after-tax dollars - no immediate deduction - but all growth and withdrawals are completely tax-free, forever. The 2024 contribution limit is $7,000, with cumulative room of $95,000 if you've been eligible since the TFSA launched in 2009. [2]
Both accounts shelter investment gains from annual taxation, which is their shared superpower. The difference lies in when you pay tax and how withdrawals affect your future finances.
The classic rule of thumb: if your tax rate is higher now than it will be in retirement, the RRSP wins. If your rate will be the same or higher later, the TFSA is better. [3]
For high earning $150,000+ in provinces like Ontario, the combined federal-provincial marginal rate can exceed 43%. [4] An RRSP contribution at that rate delivers an immediate, substantial tax refund. If you withdraw in retirement at a 30% rate, you've effectively earned a permanent tax arbitrage.
But here's where it gets nuanced. RRSP withdrawals count as income, which can trigger clawbacks of Old Age Security (OAS) benefits and affect other income-tested programs. The OAS recovery tax kicks in once your income exceeds approximately $90,000, reducing benefits by 15 cents for every dollar over the threshold. [5]
TFSA withdrawals, by contrast, are invisible to the tax system. They don't affect OAS, GIS, or any means-tested benefit. For retirees who want flexibility and predictability, this can be worth more than the upfront RRSP deduction. [6]
Tax optimization assumes you'll actually invest the RRSP refund - not spend it. Research on windfall spending shows that unexpected money, including tax refunds, is often treated as "found money" and spent rather than saved. [7]
If you contribute $10,000 to your RRSP and receive a $4,000 refund, the math only works if that $4,000 goes back into investments. If it funds a vacation or lifestyle upgrade, you've diluted the RRSP's advantage significantly.
There's also the mental accounting problem. Behavioral research shows that people treat money differently depending on which "mental account" it sits in. [8] RRSP funds feel locked away (and largely are, due to withholding taxes on early withdrawal), which can be protective. TFSA funds feel more accessible, which can lead to premature withdrawals for non-emergencies.
Research from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada found that many TFSA holders use their accounts primarily for short-term savings rather than long-term investing - missing the compounding benefits the account was designed for. [9]
Rather than treating this as an either/or question, most HENRYs benefit from using both accounts strategically. Here's a simplified decision framework:
Prioritize RRSP when: your marginal tax rate is high (above 40%), you're confident your retirement rate will be lower, and you have the discipline to reinvest the refund. Also consider RRSP contributions if you're planning to use the Home Buyers' Plan (HBP), which allows first-time buyers to withdraw up to $60,000 tax-free for a home purchase. [10]
Prioritize TFSA when: you're in a lower tax bracket now but expect higher earnings later, you want flexibility for mid-life goals (since withdrawals don't trigger tax or penalties), or you're already maximizing RRSP contributions and have additional savings capacity.
Use both when: you can afford to maximize contributions to each. The combined annual room (RRSP + TFSA + the newer FHSA for first-time home buyers) can exceed $40,000 - a powerful wealth-building engine if used consistently. [11]
Contributing to RRSP in a low-income year. If you're between jobs or earning less than usual, the deduction is worth less. Consider contributing to your TFSA instead and saving RRSP room for higher-earning years.
Ignoring employer matching. If your employer offers RRSP matching, that's an immediate 50–100% return on your contribution. Always capture the full match before directing money elsewhere.
Using TFSA as a savings account. Parking TFSA funds in a low-interest savings account wastes the tax shelter. Long-term data shows that diversified equity portfolios dramatically outperform cash over decades - and the TFSA's tax-free growth makes it ideal for higher-return investments. [12]
Over-contributing. The CRA charges a 1% monthly penalty on excess TFSA contributions. Track your room carefully, especially if you've made withdrawals (which restore room the following year, not immediately).
How PsyFi helps you optimize - and stick with - your strategy
Knowing the difference between RRSPs and TFSAs is one thing. Consistently making the right contributions - and avoiding the behavioral traps that derail good intentions - is another.
Personalized nudges: Reminders to contribute before deadlines, prompts to reinvest refunds, and alerts when you're approaching contribution limits.
Behavioral insights: Understand your money personality and how it affects decisions like "Should I tap my TFSA for this expense?"
Progress tracking: See how your registered accounts are growing over time, with visual cues that reinforce consistent behavior.
The best tax strategy is the one you actually follow. https://www.psyfiapp.com/ helps make that easier.
3: https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/rrsp-vs-tfsa
4: https://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/on.htm
6: https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/oas-clawback-explained
7: https://www.nber.org/digest/mar09/did-2008-tax-rebates-stimulate-spending
8: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/mental-accounting/
12: https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/learn-plan/investment-basics/the-hidden-cost-of-too-much-cash/detail
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Mar 23, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Activity | Venture Funding And Building

Image: Freepik
On March 23, 2026, BKR Capital announced a $20M first close for Black Innovation Fund II, with a final target of $50M. The first close includes backing from RBC, Boann Social Impact Fund, Cap Finance Social Finance Fund, BDC, and EDC.
BKR also said its first fund invested in 15 technology companies and is tracking as a top quartile performer for its vintage.
The release puts a hard number on the market gap. BKR said only 0.15% of venture capital deployed in Canada in 2025 went to Black founders. That is the core fact in this story. A second institutional fund is being raised into a market where founder supply exists, but early capital allocation remains extremely thin. The first close is aligned with a wider government effort to expand access to capital, including Canada’s renewed $189M Black Entrepreneurship Program.
Lissa Bjerkelund, Vice-President and Head of Investments at EDC:
"Supporting Canadian companies as they expand into global markets is critical in today's economic environment, and our investment in this fund speaks to our commitment to helping level the playing field for Black-owned businesses to access the capital they need to fuel their growth."
Isaac Olowolafe, General Partner at BKR Capital said there was “a powerful investment opportunity hiding in plain sight,” while Lise Birikundavyi, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at BKR Capital said “the strong financial performance of our first fund confirms what we have always known.” BKR is not pitching this as a social side pocket. It is arguing that Canada continues to misprice a real venture pipeline.
That raises a more direct capital formation question. If Fund I has already reached 15 companies and BKR says it is tracking as a top quartile performer, what keeps more institutional capital from moving sooner into managers and founder segments that the market still underfunds?
BKR’s first close also includes BDC, which lines up with a broader push toward more inclusive capital formation in Canada, including BDC’s $250M commitment to inclusive entrepreneurship.
If the founder pipeline is there and the performance case is strengthening, what still stops more Canadian institutional capital from moving earlier and at larger scale?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Mar 23, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Capital Markets And Regulation

On Mar 22, 2026, a jury verdict found that Elon Musk's public tweets during the 2022 Twitter takeover fight misled investors. The jury didn't find an intentional fraud scheme, but the plaintiff's lawyers said damages total about $2.6B. The verdict puts more weight behind a growing problem that fintech founders, platforms, and financial brands already face every day. A high profile post can move money before anyone inside the firm has time to slow it down.
The verdict doesn't mean Musk is on the hook for writing a $2.6B cheque (just yet). The jury found liability on specific statements, and the estimated damages reflects the plaintiffs’ claim based on investor losses during the period in question. The final amount still depends on post trial motions and potential appeals. That process can take time and could change the outcome.
The reality is finance no longer only runs through filings, earnings calls, and official statements. It's found it's way to X posts, podcasts, YouTube clips, founder interviews, affiliate campaigns, and finfluencer content. Markets now react to all of it. Investors don't stop to verify if a message came from investor relations, legal, or a even a founder’s phone. They see a statement, they price it in, and capital follows.
The same pressure is already building in Canada. NCFA has been tracking how regulators are tightening expectations around online financial promotion, including new guidance on digital investing content and supervision and increasing enforcement around undisclosed promotion. The direction is consistent. Online influence is now being monitored and part of the regulatory perimeter.
Why? Investor behaviour has already changed. Research cited in Canadian retail investor trends on social media shows that 53% of investors use social platforms for investment information, rising to 82% among those aged 18 to 24. It also shows that 35% have acted on that content.
That means there's no question that online content affects markets. The issue now is control. Who reviews what gets said, and how quickly the firm can step in before a post starts affecting investors.
Many fintech firms still treat public communication as a branding issue first and a control issue second. A founder post about a funding round, a growth number, a partnership, a token plan, or a future launch can change expectations long before the business is ready to support the claim. In public markets that creates obvious exposure. In private markets it can still distort trust, fundraising, customer decisions, and partner behaviour.
Top firms will respond to these realities by tightening how they handle high impact communication. They'll get sharper, not quiet. They will know which claims need evidence, which messages need review, and which topics should never go out in casual language. And they'll stop pretending that online distribution isn't a compliance item just because it feels informal or fast.
A jury has now linked informal public statements to investor harm in a way that carries financial consequences. That raises the standard for how founders, executives, and financial brands handle any communication that can influence investor decisions.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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