Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
August 31, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Artificial Intelligence And Data, Competition And Market Structure, Data Privacy And Governance

On August 31, 2026, OpenAI said ChatGPT Ads reached a US$1 billion annualized revenue run rate in less than 200 days. Tens of thousands of advertisers are using the platform, OpenAI reports more than one billion weekly active ChatGPT users, and ads are available across more than 40 countries through direct sales, agencies and technology partners.
US$1 billion is a run rate, not revenue already collected. At that pace, ChatGPT Ads would produce roughly US$250 million per quarter. That's small beside the companies OpenAI now competes with for advertising budgets, but getting there in less than seven months gives advertisers, competitors and regulators something tangible to watch.
Notably, on the same day OpenAI announced the milestone, European regulators designated ChatGPT a Very Large Online Search Engine under the Digital Services Act. In the United States, the FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over alleged practices in its advertising auctions. Google is already operating under court ordered search remedies after losing a U.S. monopolization case.
OpenAI is building its advertising business in a market where regulators already know how digital distribution, auction rules, data and default positions can concentrate power.
ChatGPT Ads started as a U.S. test on February 9 for adult Free and Go users. Canada, Australia and New Zealand followed in the spring. OpenAI added self service Ads Manager and cost per click buying in May, expanded into the U.K., Mexico, Brazil, Japan and South Korea in August, and is now adding more markets across Europe, India, the Middle East and North Africa.
The product itself has grown just as quickly. CPC and outcome optimized bidding now account for most campaigns, according to OpenAI. Advertisers can use Pixel and Conversions API measurement, product feeds, geographic targeting and custom audiences, while more than 50 technology and measurement partners connect businesses to the platform.
OpenAI says one ecommerce advertiser produced a 3x return on ad spend over 28 days, while one technology partner reported that more than 80% of traffic generated by ChatGPT ads came from new customers. Those are select examples supplied by OpenAI, so they shouldn't be treated as typical campaign performance. OpenAI also says it doesn't yet have reliable performance benchmarks across industries and campaign types.
Back in February, NCFA asked whether conversational advertising could develop into a new route for product discovery. Six months later, OpenAI has a US$1 billion annualized ad run rate, self service buying, conversion tools and tens of thousands of advertisers. Businesses will pay to advertise inside AI conversations, and enough of them are doing so to create a sizable new revenue stream.
Alec Shao, Newegg performance marketing manager, an advertiser on OpenAI's own ads site explains the attraction directly:
“We want Newegg to be part of the conversation when someone is researching what to buy.”
OpenAI isn't close to Google in advertising revenue. Alphabet reported US$81.63 billion of Google advertising revenue in Q2 2026. Search and other advertising alone generated US$63.27 billion, up from US$54.19 billion a year earlier.
Meta generated US$59.36 billion of Q2 advertising revenue, while Amazon generated US$19.81 billion from advertising services. OpenAI's roughly US$250 million quarterly equivalent makes clear how much ground separates a fast growing new entrant from established digital advertising businesses.
However, ChatGPT offers advertisers something those numbers don't capture. Search advertising usually begins with a query. Social advertising often begins with interests, behaviour and attention. Amazon can catch a shopper close to purchase. A ChatGPT conversation can contain a goal, budget, constraints, preferences and several rounds of comparison before an ad is selected.
OpenAI says its ad system considers the context and intent of the current conversation, the ad and landing page, advertiser supplied context hints and, when personalization is enabled, selected information from a user's wider ChatGPT experience. Advertiser hints describe relevant conversations, topics or keywords, but they aren't exact match search keywords.
The auction is already becoming familiar territory for performance marketers. OpenAI supports CPM and CPC buying and recommends starting CPC bids around US$3 to US$5. It says eligible ads compete through a relevance weighted second price auction.
Whether a detailed conversation produces a better customer than a search keyword hasn't been established. Advertisers now have enough buying and measurement tools to start finding out.
Regulators may reach AI advertising earlier than they reached search and social platforms. Google is already operating under court ordered search remedies, while Amazon now faces allegations over how its ad auctions were priced. OpenAI is entering the same commercial territory with regulators already alert to distribution control, auction transparency, data use and platform power.
ChatGPT Ads is still small beside Google, Meta and Amazon, but it reached a US$1 billion annualized run rate in less than 200 days. Regulators may not need to wait for comparable scale before asking how the market works, especially if distribution, data or auction rules begin limiting competition.
Canadian advertisers can already create and manage ChatGPT Ads through OpenAI's self service Ads Manager, with a minimum daily budget of C$25. Canadian financial firms face an important limit, though. OpenAI currently generally prohibits financial services ads outside the United States, where approved advertisers can be accepted case by case for products such as credit cards, mortgages, brokerages, insurance, loans and payments.
OpenAI treats financial services as a restricted category requiring extra safeguards, including enhanced advertiser verification or manual review, and says advertisers may have to prove they are properly licensed.
Financial software, budgeting tools and educational products may have more room to experiment. For firms that can participate, can ChatGPT produce customers at a better cost and with stronger intent than search, social media, affiliates or other channels?
Will regulators act on AI advertising before market power becomes difficult to unwind?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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August 28, 2026 | NCFA Market Activity + Insight | Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure, Risk Compliance And Regtech, Regulation And Policy, Wealthtech Investing And Trading

On August 28, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission penalized Gabriel Perez for prediction market insider trading after finding that he used confidential presidential speeches to trade event contracts for his own benefit. Perez worked as a White House technical adviser and teleprompter operator, which gave him access to prepared remarks before President Donald Trump delivered them.
Perez generated US$107,539.02 in profits by trading contracts on words and phrases the President would mention. He must return those profits, pay a US$65,000 civil penalty, stop violating the Commodity Exchange Act and stay out of CFTC regulated trading for three years. Perez consented to the settlement without admitting the CFTC's findings or legal conclusions, and the Commission says his cooperation justified a substantial reduction in the civil penalty. The CFTC also thanked KalshiEX for assisting the investigation.
As event contracts attract more volume, products and mainstream distribution, exchanges need to do more than price outcomes and settle trades. They need credible ways to identify when someone may know the answer before everyone else.
A mention market lets traders take a Yes or No position on whether a word, phrase or term will appear during a defined event. Perez opened his Kalshi account on December 8, 2025 and traded markets tied to presidential speeches, including addresses, rallies, policy remarks and the State of the Union.
The CFTC order says Perez generally saw prepared remarks about an hour before the President spoke. He bought Yes contracts when the target word appeared in the speech and No contracts when it did not. On one occasion, he changed his position after watching the President skip part of the prepared text.
Perez traded across 14 presidential mention markets and made money on 39 of 43 contracts. He was not making a better forecast than other traders. He had already seen the prepared remarks and knew whether many of the words being traded were present.
Traditional financial markets already deal with executives, advisers and employees who may hold valuable information before investors receive it. Event contracts can create a much wider group of people with direct knowledge of an outcome. A political speech can involve writers, production staff, government employees and technical crews, while sports, entertainment and corporate events can involve players, coaches, producers, employees, advisers or others close to the result.
That risk was visible before federal enforcement arrived. Kalshi's earlier insider trading cases included a MrBeast editor and a California political candidate, and the exchange said it had opened roughly 200 investigations or probes. Those cases showed that integrity work was already becoming part of running an event market. The Perez action is more consequential because the CFTC is now applying federal commodities law directly to misuse of confidential information in prediction market contracts.
The integrity problem can also extend beyond advance knowledge. Some traders may know an outcome early, others may be able to influence it, and some may hold information through a public duty or private relationship. That makes the source of the information as important as the trade itself.
The CFTC order and what the public record shows is that investigators could connect Perez's account, government role, speech access, trading times and profits. For prediction markets, knowing who is behind an account matters as much as spotting an unusual trade.
Traditional surveillance remains important. Exchanges can look for unusual profits, concentrated positions, repeated success, trading immediately before an event and activity that doesn't fit a customer's normal behaviour. Prediction markets add another requirement because suspicious trading may only make sense once the account is connected to a job, relationship or source of access outside financial markets.
A trader repeatedly winning presidential speech contracts becomes far more interesting if the exchange or regulator also knows that person works on presidential events. The same logic applies to sports personnel trading injury or lineup contracts, employees trading corporate outcomes or production staff trading entertainment events.
Exchanges need to know who is trading, what access they may have to the event and whether their trading pattern fits that access. Reliable customer identity, account history and information about relevant jobs or relationships can help investigators decide whether an unusual trade deserves a closer look. Surveillance teams need tools that can connect trading patterns with occupations, relationships and event access. Case management, alert review and auditable investigation records become more important as the number of contracts and traders grows.
This boosts the commercial case for regulated event contract infrastructure. Market surveillance, identity controls, outcome verification, compliance workflows, investigation tools and regulator reporting are becoming part of what platforms need to operate credible markets, alongside matching, pricing and settlement.
Different contracts also require different surveillance assumptions. An inflation contract settles on a formal public release. A presidential mention contract may depend on a speech seen by staff shortly before delivery. A sports contract can depend on injury or lineup information known to a relatively large group before the public learns it. Exchanges need to understand how each event is produced, who may know the answer early and who can influence the result before they can decide what suspicious trading looks like.
Prediction markets are reaching customers through larger financial platforms, which brings more liquidity but also more accounts and more activity to monitor. Recent CSA and CIRO guidance on prediction markets keeps sports and entertainment event contracts outside Canada's securities dealer channel, while Wealthsimple Investments and Interactive Brokers Canada can offer a narrower set of economic, environmental and financial contracts under CIRO conditions.
The CFTC case also shows that regulators are prepared to use existing commodities rules when confidential information is abused. Exchanges and distributors therefore need to spot suspicious activity early, connect it to useful account information, investigate it and keep records that can support enforcement.
That creates a practical market for surveillance, identity, behavioural analytics and case management tools. Prediction markets have already proved they can attract products, liquidity and mainstream distribution, but can market integrity keep up.
Can prediction markets scale faster than their ability to detect who knows the outcome before everyone else?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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August 31, 2026 | NCFA Market Activity + Insight | Banking And Credit, Competition And Market Structure, SME Finance And Business Banking, Consumer Finance And Lending

On August 31, 2026, Laurentian Bank confirmed the final key regulatory approvals for Fairstone Bank to acquire Laurentian and for National Bank to take its retail and SME banking portfolios. The parties expect to close on November 1, 2026, with Laurentian retail and SME products and services scheduled to migrate to National Bank by late 2026.
National Bank gets deposits, borrowers and customer relationships it can run on a much larger banking platform, while Fairstone gets Laurentian's commercial bank and lending capabilities that would take years to build. Canada loses a long standing independent full service bank, but the transaction also gives a growing specialty lender more commercial depth while strengthening National Bank's customer base.
Laurentian reached this point after a difficult 2023 and 2024, followed by a partial recovery in 2025. A strategic review ended without a sale, a major technology outage was followed by leadership changes, restructuring costs climbed and loan volumes weakened. Commercial lending was growing again by 2025, which helps explain why Fairstone wanted the commercial bank while National Bank wanted the retail and SME portfolios.
Fairstone Bank will acquire all outstanding Laurentian common shares for C$40.50 each, valuing the transaction at approximately C$1.9 billion in cash. National Bank will take Laurentian's retail and SME portfolios, which held approximately C$3.6 billion of loans and C$7.5 billion of deposits at July 31, 2026. Final cash consideration for those portfolios will depend on balances at closing, and Laurentian has said the transaction would approximate net book value using earlier reference balances.
National Bank also acquired Laurentian's C$705.7 million syndicated loan portfolio for C$646.2 million in February plus certain assumed liabilities. The Minister of Finance, OSFI, CIRO and relevant securities regulators have approved the transactions, while the Competition Act condition has been satisfied subject to no change in circumstances involving the Competition Bureau.
Closing remains targeted for November 1. Laurentian retail and SME customers are expected to migrate to National Bank by late 2026, while Laurentian's retail branches and employees do not transfer with the portfolios. Laurentian is responsible for closing the branches and terminating or reassigning affected employees before closing.
Laurentian's board launched a strategic review in July 2023 that considered a sale, divestitures and other options. By September it had decided to remain independent and focus on efficiency, simpler operations and businesses where management believed the bank could compete.
Weeks later, a planned IT maintenance update led to a mainframe outage that disrupted customer services. Éric Provost replaced Rania Llewellyn as CEO on October 2, while Michael Boychuk became board chair. The outage did not determine Laurentian's future on its own, but it exposed an operational weakness at a bank already trying to modernize and regain customer confidence.
The cleanup was expensive. Laurentian cut staff, closed its equity research business, reduced office space, suspended its Advanced Internal Ratings Based credit project and simplified technology and operations. It recorded C$228.4 million in impairment and restructuring charges in fiscal 2024 and reported a C$5.5 million annual net loss, compared with C$181.1 million of profit the previous year.
Total net loans fell by C$1.8 billion in 2024, including declines in commercial, personal and residential mortgage lending. Laurentian cited high interest rates, weaker loan demand, volatile markets and changes in its lending mix. Its disclosures do not establish Canada's later immigration, temporary resident or international student policy changes as a material cause of mortgage volumes, deposits, credit performance or the eventual transaction.
Commercial lending then recovered. By October 2025, commercial loans had grown 8% from a year earlier to C$17.9 billion, led by commercial real estate, inventory and equipment finance, while deposits reached C$24.0 billion. Laurentian had repaired enough of its commercial business to make that franchise attractive even though keeping retail, SME and commercial banking together no longer produced the strongest outcome.
National Bank is buying customer portfolios rather than Laurentian's retail operating structure. It gains loans, deposits and established relationships without taking Laurentian's branches or retail employees, allowing those customers to be served through National Bank's existing digital services, physical network and product range.
The transaction follows National Bank's acquisition of Canadian Western Bank, but the job is different. CWB brought a complete regional banking franchise. Laurentian brings selected customer books, reducing the amount of physical infrastructure National Bank has to absorb while still adding deposits and borrowers.
Fairstone is buying the part of Laurentian that complements its own lending strategy. Home Trust brought alternative mortgages, deposits, GICs and broker distribution, while Fig added digital lending and API based distribution. Laurentian adds commercial real estate, equipment finance, inventory finance, United States lending and capital markets expertise.
Those commercial capabilities were built over years, including Laurentian's 2017 acquisition of Northpoint Commercial Finance. Fairstone therefore gets experienced teams, underwriting history and customer relationships that would be expensive and slow to reproduce. It's already a Schedule I bank, so the acquisition does not give Fairstone its first banking licence. It gives the group substantially more depth across consumer, mortgage, digital and commercial credit.
National Bank takes the retail and SME deposit book, so Fairstone does not inherit Laurentian's entire funding base. The strategic gain is less about collecting all of Laurentian's deposits and more about adding specialized commercial lending to a group already built around credit.
Laurentian's sale comes as Canadian challengers pursue very different ways to grow.
Also, OSFI's streamlined approvals process could make entry more predictable for additional banking models. Laurentian therefore does not prove that smaller Canadian banks cannot survive. Its own technology, leadership and restructuring problems were significant. What the deal does show is how costly it can be for a smaller full service bank to recover from those problems while continuing to fund technology, cybersecurity, compliance, risk management, customer acquisition and a competitive range of products.
That is becoming more demanding as specialized competitors attack individual parts of banking without carrying every cost of a traditional bank. Consumer driven banking should also make financial data easier for customers to take elsewhere, raising the value of having a clear reason for them to stay.
Laurentian retail and SME customers will have to migrate products and services to National Bank, and businesses may need to update payment instructions, accounting connections, treasury processes and other systems tied to their bank. Fintechs that simplify onboarding, account connectivity, cash flow visibility, identity verification and payment routing can reduce friction while customers are already reviewing their financial relationships.
SME credit creates another opening because a forced banking transition gives businesses a reason to compare lenders. Faster underwriting helps, but better SME financial data remains essential if digital lenders want to price risk accurately rather than compete only on speed. Consumer driven banking should eventually make future migrations easier by allowing customers to authorize reusable financial data instead of rebuilding every connection manually.
Fig creates another possibility through embedded credit. Its digital lending model already places loans inside partner experiences, while Laurentian brings deeper commercial underwriting. Together, those capabilities could support financing through dealer networks, vertical software, SME platforms and other workflows where businesses encounter credit while completing the job that created the financing need.
National Bank has to migrate Laurentian customers while continuing its Canadian Western Bank integration. Fairstone has to combine businesses serving different borrowers through different systems, channels and credit models. Pricing changes, technology problems, weak communication or difficult conversions could reduce the value either buyer expects to capture.
Credit conditions add another risk because commercial real estate, mortgages, consumer lending and SME credit react differently to rates and economic weakness. Both buyers need underwriting, funding and risk controls to keep pace while integration is underway.
The result will determine whether Laurentian's disappearance mainly reduces competition or redistributes it. Canada is losing one independent full service bank, but the assets going to Fairstone could give another challenger considerably more weight.
A clean National Bank migration could give Laurentian customers more products and distribution while producing better economics from the acquired portfolios. Successful Fairstone integration could create a stronger specialty competitor across consumer credit, mortgages, digital lending and commercial finance.
The result will determine whether Laurentian's disappearance mainly reduces competition or redistributes it. Canada is losing one independent full service bank, but the assets going to Fairstone could give another challenger considerably more weight.
Does dividing Laurentian between National Bank and Fairstone preserve enough competition to compensate for losing one of Canada's long standing independent banks?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Aug 31, 2026

Money's been on my mind recently. Not in that anxiety-spiral way where you check your bank account at 2am, but this quiet realization that maybe I should know where my paycheck actually goes.
Last month I tracked every dollar I spent on fun stuff for 30 days. Movies, streaming subscriptions, nights out, concert tickets, all of it. The final number: $387.42. When I looked at that spreadsheet, I couldn't remember what half those charges were for. What's the point of spending money on entertainment if it vanishes from memory within two weeks?
I started approaching entertainment differently. Not cutting everything fun out, but actually thinking about what I was doing with my money instead of letting it evaporate.
I didn't create some elaborate system. After obsessing over my spending patterns, I noticed something. The weeks where I felt genuinely good about how I'd spent my time and money? Pretty much always came out between $50 and $65. Not $100, not $20, just that range where I'd actually done something worth remembering without that guilty feeling.
Usually broke down like this: one planned thing with friends costing $25 to $30, small daily stuff like grabbing coffee or buying a book adding up to $15 or $20, plus one spontaneous decision for another $10 to $15.
This magic number doesn't work for everyone. Your sweet spot might be $30 or $100 depending on where you live, what you earn, and what brings you joy. But having an actual number instead of vibes-based spending helps you make better choices in the moment.
I started investing 10 minutes researching before spending money on something. When I was considering trying a new platform (like when I checked out Rex Bet after my friend wouldn't shut up about it), I actually looked at what they offered instead of just creating an account and hoping for the best. New restaurant? I'd glance at menu prices first.
Doing that research didn't kill spontaneity like I thought it would. It made spontaneous decisions better because when I did something on impulse, I was way more likely to genuinely enjoy it instead of feeling like I'd wasted money.
Anything over $75 gets a two-day waiting period. That's it.
I wait 48 hours before buying it, and you'd be shocked how many times something I absolutely needed to have right that second completely disappeared from my brain after two days. Still thinking about that $89 blender I almost bought at 11pm on a Tuesday that I've never thought about since.
The stuff I still wanted after waiting? Those purchases turned out to be worth it almost every time. I noticed they were usually experiences instead of things, which bring way more lasting happiness anyway.
I'm not spending dramatically less money now. Some months I actually spend more than my old average. But the difference is I can tell you exactly where that money went and why. I remember the comedy show I saw three weeks ago because I actively chose it instead of defaulting to whatever required the least thought.
My whole relationship with my entertainment budget changed. Stopped being about restricting myself or feeling guilty, started being about actually being present for the experiences I was paying for instead of mindlessly swiping my card and wondering where my paycheck vanished to.
Pretty small shift when you think about it. Made a massive difference though.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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