Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
June 10, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Regulation And Policy, Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

On June 10, 2026, the CFTC opened public consultation on proposed prediction market rules and the related 267-page pre-publication rule document. The proposal would create a formal review process for event contracts that touch sensitive areas such as gaming, war, terrorism, assassination, or unlawful activity.
The market is now large enough to force a real line-drawing exercise. The CFTC says total trading volume across registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025. That remains small beside the roughly $31 trillion notional value of the broader futures market the agency regulates, but it is no longer a niche category.
The proposal targets event contracts covered by Section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC wants to amend Regulation 40.11, add Appendix F to part 40, define when a contract “involves” a listed activity, define “gaming,” and apply public interest factors to each contract under review.
Currently, a registered exchange can self-certify a contract, and contracts may begin trading quickly. The proposed framework gives the CFTC a 90-day review period for contracts that may involve one of the listed activities. The agency can request that trading pause during review, but the proposal says prediction markets are not required to follow that request. Some contracts could trade during review and later be blocked or delisted if the CFTC finds them contrary to the public interest.
The public interest test is practical. The CFTC would look at price discovery, information value, market integrity, and whether the platform can supervise the contract. That puts contract design, settlement data, surveillance, and trader controls at the centre of the review.
Sports are a key test case. The proposal treats contracts based on broad, objective sports outcomes more favourably, including final scores, point differentials, win-loss results, tournament advancement, team or individual statistics, and season-long performance metrics. The CFTC says these contracts can create useful price information when they use objective settlement criteria and are supported by suitable oversight and coordination with sports integrity bodies.
The CFTC is stricter around contracts tied to player injuries, officiating decisions, youth sports, cheating incentives, and misconduct. Injury contracts can create harmful incentives and expose medical information. Officiating contracts can put pressure on a small number of identifiable decision makers. Youth sports markets raise participant protection concerns.
DraftKings highlights why this rulemaking is needed commercially. Barron’s reports that annualized consumer trading volume on DraftKings Predictions reached $1.3 billion, up 24% from April 2026. Annualized total trading volume reached $3.1 billion, up 34%. Note, the numbers are early and based on company data.
DraftKings brings sports users, mobile distribution, pricing, promotions, and live event engagement. Kalshi and Polymarket bring event contracts, exchange style trading, collateral, liquidity, and surveillance. The CFTC proposal now pulls those models into the same regulatory conversation.
The user experience may look similar on a phone, but the rulebooks are different. Sportsbooks operate under gaming law. Prediction markets argue they are federally regulated event contract markets that support price discovery and information aggregation. The CFTC proposal tests where that argument holds, especially when sports contracts that are towing the line of integrity.
NCFA recently looked at trust questions around Polymarket influencer payments, including disclosure, paid promotion, and market credibility after a market goes live. The CFTC proposal moves the issue upstream. It asks which markets should be allowed to list in the first place.
Canada should watch closely. DraftKings already operates in Ontario’s regulated iGaming market, while prediction markets continue to test the line between financial contracts, gaming products, and information markets. The U.S. approach won't cleanly transfer into Canada, but it gives Canadian regulators, exchanges, fintechs, and other stakeholders an early view of the policy questions surrounding the table..
Will sports prediction markets become regulated financial products, sportsbook extensions, or a new category that forces regulators to redraw the line between trading, gaming, and market information?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Jun 10, 2026

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Online casino users often compare platforms based on how easily they can access information and navigate available features. As the industry continues to develop, user-friendliness remains one of the most important factors influencing how an online platform is perceived and evaluated.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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June 8, 2026 | NCFA Insight | Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure, Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization

On June 5, 2026, Politico published an investigation into Polymarket's influencer marketing program. The report found that Polymarket chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber allegedly used a personal PayPal account to send at least $350,000 to content creators between January 2025 and February 2026. Politico's review identified over 490 social media posts promoting Polymarket that allegedly didn't clearly disclose paid relationships.
The investigation paints a picture far larger than a disclosure dispute. It's a rare look into how prediction markets are building distribution, visibility, and cultural relevance while simultaneously becoming one of the most discussed forecasting platforms in politics, sports, current events, and financial markets.
At least 20 creators identified by Politico promoted Polymarket after receiving payments. The report also found more than $2.5 million in transfers from the account to over 800 recipients during the period reviewed. Several influencers allegedly framed Polymarket odds as breaking news or authoritative indicators of future events. One creator told Politico that the company provided suggested post copy and encouraged promotion of specific markets.
The story reveals something many people inside fintech have quietly observed for years. Prediction markets are no longer simply markets. They are becoming media businesses.
Traditional exchanges compete for liquidity. Prediction markets increasingly compete for attention.
Polymarket's growth coincided with the 2024 U.S. election cycle, where billions of dollars flowed through election related contracts. Politico's reporting shows that influencer distribution became part of that growth strategy. The objective was not only attracting traders. It was turning Polymarket into a source people referenced when discussing politics, government decisions, sports outcomes, and breaking events.
The strategy appears to have worked. Today, prediction market odds regularly appear in mainstream media coverage. News organizations cite them. Social media users share screenshots of them. Investors discuss them. Politicians reference them. The market itself increasingly becomes part of the story.
It's a new category that's somewhere between financial infrastructure, media distribution, forecasting, and social networks.
The obvious asset is trading volume. The less obvious asset is trust. Many of the influencers highlighted in Politico's investigation promoted Polymarket as exceptionally accurate. Some described the platform as a superior forecasting mechanism compared to polling. Others highlighted successful market predictions as evidence of credibility.
This creates an unusual challenge. Prediction markets derive value from the perception that they aggregate independent information better than traditional alternatives. If users begin questioning how information reaches the market, who amplifies market narratives, or whether promotion and prediction are becoming intertwined, trust becomes harder to maintain.
The issue isn't whether influencer marketing is permitted. Many fintech companies use creators, affiliates, newsletters, podcasts, and social media personalities. The issue is whether users can clearly distinguish between market intelligence and paid amplification.
The most important opportunity may not be another prediction market. It's infrastructure that helps users understand how market information forms, spreads, and gains credibility.
As prediction markets, AI systems, social media platforms, and financial products become more connected, users need better ways to answer practical questions.
The next generation of prediction market innovation opportunities may come from building verification, disclosure, provenance, surveillance, and transparency tools around these markets.
These capabilities are still early. As prediction markets expand into politics, sports, finance, and public policy, demand for trust infrastructure should grow with them.
The Politico investigation focuses on influencer payments, disclosure practices, and marketing tactics, but the larger takeaway is that prediction markets are evolving beyond trading venues. They're becoming information platforms. That evolution creates opportunity, but it also creates responsibility. Today, Reuters posted about predication markets facing rising scrutiny over insider trading controls, reinforcing that these markets need trust infrastructure around promotion, surveillance, suspicious trading, and market transparency.
Markets that increasingly influence public understanding of events will face greater scrutiny over how information enters the system, how narratives spread, and how trust is earned. The next competitive opportunity may be proving that market intelligence can be trusted.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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