Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Mar 5, 2026 | NCFA Market Insight | AI And The Future Of Work

Image: Labour market impacts of AI: New measure, early evidence (Anthropic Mar 2026)
On March 5 2026, new Anthropic artificial intelligence labour market impact research | download 17 page PDF offers a more grounded way to think about AI and jobs. Most AI labour studies ask what large language models could do in theory. This one asks what workers actually do with AI now. That sounds like a small change, but it matters. Financial institutions, fintechs, and policymakers need to know where real workflow change starts, not just where capability headlines point.
The paper introduces a new measure called observed exposure. It combines occupational task data, Claude usage data, and earlier research on which tasks language models can theoretically handle. The approach tries to separate technical possibility from real use. That makes this study potentially more useful than other broad forecasts about AI replacing jobs. To be clear, at this point the research doesn't claim mass displacement has arrived. It looks instead for early pressure points that may show up before unemployment spikes.
This report matters because it focuses on real work patterns. The authors use the US O*NET task database, Anthropic Economic Index usage data, and earlier task level exposure estimates to build their measure. They also give more weight to automated and work related uses than to lighter forms of assistance. That helps the study track where AI starts to move from drafting help into actual production work.
That said, the research has real limits, and those limits matter. The usage data comes from Claude, not from the full AI economy. A bank using Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, or internal tools may show a different pattern. The measure also tracks task exposure, not direct job loss. And the authors make clear that adoption still lags capability because of legal controls, software requirements, human review, and workflow friction. That caution strengthens the paper rather than weakening it. It keeps the analysis honest.
The most striking findings is the size of the gap between capability and real usage. In STEM (ie. computer and math) occupations, earlier work suggests language models could theoretically touch 94% of tasks. Anthropic’s observed measure puts current Claude coverage in that category at just 33%. In other words, the technology frontier sits much further ahead than the adoption frontier.
That gap matters for fintech and finance because it points to where the real bottleneck sits. The next productivity jump might not come from a bigger, better, faster or smarter model alone. It might come from firms that redesign workflows, tighten controls, connect tools to internal systems, and build trust in output quality. Which operators can close the adoption gap faster than peers.
The report finds that computer programmers rank as the most exposed occupation, with 74.5% coverage. Customer service representatives follow at 70.1%, and data entry keyers come next at 67.1%. Digital, repeatable, text heavy work moves first.
What stands out for NCFA readers is that this isn't just software engineers. Financial analysts are also among the most exposed occupations in the paper’s wider discussion. That should get the attention of banks, insurers, wealth platforms, lenders, and compliance teams. A lot of value in finance comes from summarizing information, checking documents, explaining options, processing forms, and moving data from one system to another. Those are exactly the kinds of tasks that AI enters early.
Workers in the most exposed occupations earn 47% more on average than workers in the unexposed group. People with graduate degrees make up 17.4% of the most exposed group, compared with 4.5% of the unexposed group.
Early pressure is showing up in better paid, more educated, office based roles. In practice, that means AI may alter the work of analysts, developers, researchers, service teams, and operations professionals before it touches many frontline physical jobs. For financial institutions, this points to a management challenge as much as a technology one. Firms need to rethink role design, supervision, training, and quality control inside knowledge work functions.
The research does not find a growing rise in unemployment for workers in the most exposed occupations since late 2022. That is an important result because it pushes back on louder claims that AI already causes wide labour market damage.
But the report does find an early warning sign. For workers aged 22 to 25, job finding rates into highly exposed occupations fall by about 14% compared with 2022 levels. The authors stress that this result is only barely statistically significant and open to other interpretations. So something to watch and track.
This is how labour market change often starts. Not with mass layoffs. Not with an obvious cliff. It starts when firms stop hiring as many junior people because AI now handles part of the routine work those hires once learned on. That's important for banking, fintech, consulting, and other white collar sectors that depend on apprenticeship style career ladders. If entry points narrow, firms may save money in the short run while weakening their future talent pipeline.
Firms should watch three things closely to better anticipate where the real gap may open between leaders and laggards:
For fintech builders, the market needs tools that help institutions safely plug AI into live work. Audit trails, review controls, workflow routing, structured data extraction, policy checking, and role based permissions. Companies that solve those problems help close the distance between AI capability and actual business use and adoption.
Anthropic’s research is quite useful because it shows where real adoption starts, where the biggest gaps remain, and where the cracks may start to appear and proliferate.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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March 5, 2026 | NCFA Feature | Capital Markets And Policy And Regulation

On March 4 2026, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discussed how non bank finance can amplify stress in debt markets during remarks at the Global Risk Institute in Toronto. He pointed at two pressure points that matter for Canada right now:
Macklem puts a clear number on hedge fund demand in Canada:
"In Canada, they purchase up to 50% of Government of Canada bonds sold at auction and account for a big portion of secondary market trading.”
Hedge funds aren't just active in Canada. Similar patterns show up across many major economies. Hedge funds now hold a significant share of government debt outside central banks and large institutions. When government bond markets become unstable, the effects spread quickly. Mortgage rates, business loans, and corporate borrowing costs all move with government bond yields, so shifts in that market ripple through the entire economy.
The Bank highlights the repo market because repo borrowing funds many leveraged bond trades. A repo (repurchase agreement), works like a very short term loan. An investor borrows cash and posts government bonds as collateral, then agrees to buy those bonds back a day or a few days later.
Macklem says many hedge fund bond positions rely on this type of borrowing and are often highly leveraged. The structure makes markets sensitive to sudden changes in funding conditions.
He explains that “globally, about half have an overnight maturity. And haircuts are low zero or negative more than 80% of the time.” If lenders raise collateral requirements or reduce lending, investors may need to sell bonds quickly to reduce leverage.
When several large investors unwind positions at the same time, liquidity can vanish and prices can fall sharply. Macklem points to past episodes where this dynamic played out, including the global dash for cash at the start of the pandemic, the United Kingdom gilt crisis in 2022, and stress in the United States Treasury market in 2023.
Macklem also focuses on private credit because transparency is more difficult than in public markets:
“The opacity of private credit means investors may not have enough information about the quality of loans held in their funds.”
If defaults rise and investors rush for exits, he warns that the strain can spill into public credit markets. Canada connects to this risk because Canadian institutions invest in private credit globally, and funding links can pull stress back into the regulated system through liquidity needs and cross border channels.
The Bank of Canada is also changing how it plans to conduct its repo transactions. In a market notice, the Bank says it will join the Canadian Collateral Management Service tri party platform for its domestic repo operations by early 2027. CCMS is a market utility launched by TMX Group and Clearstream that helps participants move collateral, manage substitutions, and automate settlement for repo trades.
The Bank also says it intends to clear its repo operations through the Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation once TMX completes upgrades to expand central clearing services. CDCC acts as a central counterparty that guarantees settlement if one side of a trade fails.
The goal is to support stronger collateral management, reduce counterparty risk, and encourage broader use of modern repo infrastructure in Canada.
More lending and market activity now happens via non-bank firms who often use short term funding that can tighten quickly, not just traditional banks. When that happens, pressure in debt markets can build fast. Canadian institutions need better visibility into funding conditions, leverage, and collateral movement across markets. Fintech companies that help banks monitor liquidity, collateral, and repo exposures in near real time can fill an important gap.
At the same time, stronger market infrastructure matters for Canada’s competitiveness. Investors and dealers gravitate to markets that settle trades smoothly and manage collateral efficiently, especially during periods of stress.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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March 5, 2026 | CIX Summit 2026

Image courtesy of CIX, Powered by Elevate, March 25, 2026
On March 4, 2026, CIX Summit confirms the 2026 summit agenda now live and tees up the March 25 Toronto event, with NCFA participating as a community partner.
The agenda puts investor founder connection at the center of the day, with an Investor Forum built for candid capital conversations and a Founder Forum focused on fundraising and scaling. It also includes Scale Beyond Borders with Global Affairs Canada and founders sharing practical market entry experience, plus Cracking the VC Code on funding strategies for women founders and how to navigate fundraising in today’s market.
CIX also spotlights this year’s Innovator of the Year fireside chat with Wealthsimple CEO and co founder Mike Katchen
CIX also names 14 Canadian startup award winners for 2026, which helps founders and investors see who CIX is already ranking as standout teams.
CIX confirms that on March 9 at 12:00 PM EST Meeting Exchange bookings become open (must be CIX Startup passholder, format is one to one). These meetings are for startups from pre-seed to growth capital, with investor types that include incubators, accelerators, angels, venture funds, corporate venture teams, and debt providers across major tech sectors.

NCFA is sharing a 20% community partner discount on CIX Summit passes for its community. Use CIXNCFA20 for 20% off. CIX runs on March 25, 2026 in downtown Toronto. CIX publishes ticket options and event logistics on its official page for CIX Summit 2026 ticket details and March 25 venue information.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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March 5, 2026 | NCFA Advocacy | Data Governance

Sent by email:
Dear Minister
Power of Data
We (the undersigned – data driven tech and policy experts) very much support the letter of 4 Feb 2026 to you from CCPA – https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/open-letter-to-the-honourable-melanie-joly-minister-responsible-for-statistics-canada/.
We add to that letter the following points:
1. At a time when we need more data, not less, to support evidence-based decision making and community engagement in Canada, the staffing and other cuts already started at StatsCan are misguided. Even if the cuts will “have a ‘low’ or ‘limited’ impact on existing service levels” (a position which is contestable), we echo concerns about the long-term impact on data collection, statistical reliability, and public trust in government institutions.
We ask StatsCan to outline how core programs, release schedules, and quality standards will be maintained. How do we reconcile the cuts with the Digital Research Infrastructure Strategy - https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/ised/en/programs-and-initiatives/digital-research-infrastructure? Clarifying how “modernization” will offset reductions would strengthen confidence in the transition.
2. Our need for data is magnified by the attacks on data collection in the US, keeping in mind that in the past we have relied on much of that data. The attacks show how quickly statistical capacity can erode and how difficult it is to rebuild.
3. StatsCan plays an important coordinating role in maintaining statistical standards. Although StatsCan is not necessarily the body that should be collecting all the data we need in Canada, we suggest that StatsCan should be the body to oversee an inventory of what Canada does collect (or should be collecting) and to consult on and publish best practices for collection and governance. However, the cuts will clearly constrain an expanded governance role for StatsCan for the foreseeable future.
To provide some examples of data that is sorely needed:
(a) commercialization from Canadian universities, along the lines of the UKRI spinout registry (https://www.ukri.org/news/world-leading-register-of-uk-university-spin-outs-published); *
(b) data on emerging tech commercialization for defence (https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2024-dual-use-technologies-report-baldwin-051-esc and https://www.cigionline.org/publications/intellectual-property-is-economic-and-national-security/); and
(c) data on the outcomes of research spending.
4. Under the World Bank’s Statistical Performance Indicators, Canada’s statistical system ranks highly – https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/statistical-performance-indicators. While we do not doubt that reform of StatsCan is needed in an increasingly tech-driven economy, wholesale cuts are not the way to do it. Expertise will be lost, collaborative connections across organizations will be lost, mistakes will be made, there will be loss of morale, and direct costs of “redundancy” will be high, when strong statistical capacity is even more essential to support productivity and competitiveness.
5. The timing could not be worse. We are facing enormous challenges, and Canada’s need for reliable data is increasing as the economy evolves. To provide but one example, Canada is increasing defence spending under a new defence industrial strategy and engaging in “nation-building” projects. As noted in the Institute for Research in Public Policy report (https://irpp.org/research-studies/how-industrial-policy-can-strengthen-canada/), these projects must be “accompanied by rigorous evaluation and good governance practices” which can only be effective when Canadian institutions, including StatsCan, collect high quality data and use it to connect action to outcomes.
6. Rebuild or shred? (‘The Doom Loop’ and the future of the global order – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ULm87aidxM). This is a moment for careful planning to ensure institutional capacity is preserved and to plan for rebuilding, not shredding.
Respectfully
Signed
Kyle Briggs - https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-briggs/
David Durand – https://www.linkedin.com/in/daviddurandavocat/
Craig Asano, CEO National Crowdfunding & Fintech Assn of Canada - https://ncfacanada.org/
Robin Ford, Robin Ford Consulting - https://www.linkedin.com/in/robinericaford/
Peter Morand, Past President of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
Patrick Leblond, CN-Paul M. Tellier Chair on Business and Public Policy, University of Ottawa
José Carlos Marques, Associate Professor, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa
* While Canada invests billions in research, we translate very little of the value created into long-term economic and social benefit for Canadians. StatsCan recently attempted to survey Canadian universities on their commercialization activities but was unsuccessful. StatsCan removed the report from the website following complaints that the data was incomplete.
In contrast, the UK recently created a “spin-out register” of all startups commercializing IP created during publicly funded research (https://www.ukri.org/blog/university-spin-out-register-a-step-change-in-insights-for-all/). This register is already providing valuable insights that are helping UK policy makers make better funding decisions.
Canada’s world-class research institutions could contribute far more to Canada’s economy and economic security (https://www.cigionline.org/publications/intellectual-property-is-economic-and-national-security/), but without high-quality data, we struggle to identify and fix the problems.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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