Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
Mar 3, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Insight | Small Business Performance And Payments

Image: Small Business Sales, Canada (Xero Small Business Insights, Canada Oct Dec 2025)
On February 26 2026, Xero released its Small Business Insights Canada Update for October to December 2025, based on aggregated and anonymized small business accounting data from its small business accounting platform, not survey responses. The dataset reflects real invoicing and payment activity captured within the Xero system. The December quarter closed with a clear revenue reversal while payment discipline strengthened. The numbers provide an operating baseline for fintech lenders, payments firms, and financial institutions serving the small business segment, as we move deeper into 2026.
Quarterly Sales Growth 2025
Q1: +5.0%
Q2: +2.8%
Q3: +2.0%
Q4: −4.1%
Q4 Monthly Breakdown
October: −1.6%
November: −5.6%
December: −5.1%
A nine percentage point swing from Q1 to Q4, with the December quarter decline the largest since September 2020. The Q4 reversal showed how fast small business demand can change. Sales moved from solid growth early in the year to a sharp contraction by December.
That kind of swing compresses reaction time. For lenders and platform providers, continuous revenue monitoring is more important than backward looking ratios. Fintechs that track live invoicing flows and cash inflows gain earlier warning signals. Banks that still rely on periodic reporting will be reactive. The risk is no longer just default, it's also speed.
During periods of weaker revenue, founders focus on cash flow and credit, but they also need to review commercial insurance coverage options as risk exposure increases.
Full Year 2025 Average: +1.4%
Long Term Average: +4.5%
A sustained three percentage point gap versus historical norms. Not a single weak month but a structural softness across the year. When growth slows, small businesses focus on managing timing. They want certainty around receivables, payables, and liquidity buffers. Expansion plans move to the background. This changes product priorities. Tools that shorten receivable cycles, automate reconciliation, and provide flexible liquidity become core operating infrastructure. Working capital solutions that assume growth acceleration may miss the mark. Fintechs that help stabilize cash flow, and not amplify growth, may align better in this cycle.
Late Payment Days
June Quarter: 11.3 days
September Quarter: 9.8 days
December Quarter: 9.7 days
Long Term Average: 11.7 days
Time To Be Paid
June Quarter: 27.7 days
September Quarter: 26.3 days
December Quarter: 26.8 days
Revenue slowed, but businesses tightened receivables management. Payment behaviour improved into year end. Settlement timing held steady despite volatility in topline growth. This means payment behaviour data may now offer stronger forward insight than topline growth alone. If a business collects faster, even during a slowdown, that tells you something about discipline, customer quality, and internal controls. Fintech lenders that weight verified payment performance can price risk more precisely.
Q4 Sales Growth By Province
British Columbia: −8.2%
Alberta: −4.0%
Ontario: −1.7%
Q4 Time To Be Paid
Ontario: 28.4 days
British Columbia: 27.5 days
Alberta: 26.6 days
Regional sales outcomes and liquidity conditions diverged materially. National averages masked local differences. The December quarter showed wide variation across provinces. Some regions contracted far more than others. That gap changes the risk profile of a portfolio. National averages smooth out reality. A lender with concentrated exposure in a weaker province carries different forward risk than one diversified across stronger regions. Regional segmentation should move from a reporting exercise to a pricing and limit setting discipline. Portfolio steering needs to reflect local operating conditions, not national headlines.
Q4 2025 showed a structural split: weaker sales, stronger collections, and widening regional differences. For fintech leaders, the opportunity is not just reacting to the decline. It's in building systems that continuously read revenue direction, payment velocity, and geographic exposure at a granular level. Firms that can master these variables in real time will support small businesses more effectively in lower growth environments.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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February 20, 2026 | Global Fintech Funding Research

Image: Freepik
On February 18, 2026, KPMG released Pulse of Fintech H2 2025 reporting global fintech investment reached $116B in 2025, up from $95.5B in 2024, while total deal count fell to 4,719, the lowest level in eight years. That combo tells the real story. More money shows up, but it doesn’t spread out. It stacks into fewer companies, fewer rounds, and more pressure on proof.
KPMG’s regional totals show how concentrated 2025 really was. The Americas pulled in $66.5B across 2,409 deals, with the United States at $56.6B across 1,977 deals. Canada sits inside the Americas corridor where the biggest pools of capital live, but that also means Canadian fintechs compete head to head with scaled US plays for the same investor attention.
The report shows Canadian venture capital fintech investment dropped from $9.9B in 2024 to $2.4B in 2025. A few large late stage rounds can dominate totals in a smaller market, so timing matters. Still, perception isn't great and Canada can’t rely on one breakout year to carry credibility and market confidence.
EMEA recorded $29.2B across 1,484 deals.
ASPAC came in at $9.3B across 763 deals.
Exit value more than doubled to $104.4B in 2025 from $46.8B in 2024, and exit deal count rose to 486 from 438. Stronger exits recycle capital and resets valuation benchmarks. It won’t lift every company but it can improve the mood for 2026 if momentum holds.
KPMG shows payments investment totals $19.2B in 2025 compared with $20.4B in 2024, while deal count falls from 655 to 542. The segment stayed large, but investors picked winners.
The report also flags continued payments traction in emerging markets in H2 2025, with South America standing out, supported by instant payments regimes such as Brazil’s Pix and Argentina’s Transferencias 3.
For Canadian payments firms, this isn’t about chasing every corridor. It’s about owning a clear wedge. If you can show strong fraud outcomes, fast settlement, clean reconciliation, and deep enterprise integration, you stand a chance in a market that rewards proof. If you can’t, you’ll get stuck in the crowded middle.
Digital assets and currencies investment rose from $11.2B across 1,584 deals in 2024 to $19.1B across 1,199 deals in 2025. Dollars r0se while deals fell, which usually means institutions backed fewer, larger infrastructure outcomes. KPMG points to stablecoins, corporate participation, and regulatory clarity as drivers going into 2026. KPMG also highlights growing interest in asset tokenization, including money market funds and real estate.
Canada’s opportunity sits in the infrastructure layer. Regulated custody, compliant settlement, strong controls, and enterprise tokenization tooling can travel across borders. Delays cost builders time, and time costs them market position and money.
Investment in AI driven fintech rose from $12.1B in 2024 to $16.8B in 2025, while deal count rose from 1,183 to 1,334. This is one of the few areas where both dollars and deal flow grew. Still, KPMG notes corporates often partner directly with large tech and AI providers, which raises the bar for specialist fintechs.
Canadian AI fintech teams can’t just say they use AI. They’ve got to show what it changes. Lower fraud losses, faster underwriting, better collections, fewer false positives, and lower service cost. If the numbers don’t move, the story won’t land with investors/buyers.
Insurtech rebounded from $2.9B in 2024 to $8.6B in 2025 while deal volume slipped to a 10 year low of 291 deals. KPMG linked much of the rebound to two outlier transactions, including the $2.6B acquisition of Next Insurance and the $2.5B take private of Sapiens International. That’s the lesson. A handful of transactions can drive the headline while most companies still fight for small checks.
Cybersecurity investment fell to $0.7B in 2025 from $0.9B in 2024, and deal count fell to 72 from 93. At the same time, rapid change driven by AI is increasing the focus on data security because automation depends on trusted data. Banks are consolidating data into protected lakes to support advanced automation and exploring new security models to reduce operating cost while improving outcomes.
This funding dip means larger buyers and platforms are taking more control. Canadian security focused fintechs need to sell enterprise outcomes that tie directly to risk reduction and operational cost.
Regtech investment dropped from $6.8B in 2024 to $4.9B in 2025 while deal count rose from 431 to 519. That pattern often means smaller rounds and cautious checks. The report also describes large banks investing more in internal AI driven compliance tools, which can reduce third party budgets for point solutions.
Canadian regtech firms should focus on selling what banks can’t build quickly, such as shared utilities, cross institution data networks, workflow embedded reporting, and tooling that reduces total compliance cost at scale.
Wealthtech investment fell to $1.4B in 2025 from $4.9B in 2024 while deal count stayed almost flat at 57 in 2025 versus 58 in 2024. KPMG highlights a Canadian bright spot in Wealthsimple who secured about US $538M (CAD $750M) in an equity funding round in H2 2025, and was just awarded CIX Summit's 2026 Innovator of the Year award. That shows global capital still backs Canadian category leaders when they reach scale and earn trust.
Canada faces the challenge of global capital concentrating while Canada’s totals reset from $9.9B to $2.4B. That creates a narrative risk if Canada doesn’t produce repeatable scale outcomes. The upside sits in the same places global capital is leaning into. Payments still attracts large dollars even as investors consolidate. Digital assets funding returns through stablecoins and tokenization infrastructure. AI fintech attracts both dollars and deal flow when it improves real operating results.
Canada needs to stay focused and practical. Build infrastructure grade companies, prove measurable outcomes early, and tie growth to regulated adoption. That’s where the bigger checks go when fewer companies are getting funded.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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