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Canadian Small Business Revenue Turns Negative In Q4

Mar 3, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Insight | Small Business Performance And Payments

Small business sales, Canada Xero Small Business Insights, Canada Oct Dec 2025

Image: Small Business Sales, Canada (Xero Small Business Insights, Canada Oct Dec 2025)

Q4 Data Shows Revenue Contraction And Wider Provincial Differences

On February 26 2026, Xero released its Small Business Insights Canada Update for October to December 2025, based on aggregated and anonymized small business accounting data from its small business accounting platform, not survey responses. The dataset reflects real invoicing and payment activity captured within the Xero system. The December quarter closed with a clear revenue reversal while payment discipline strengthened. The numbers provide an operating baseline for fintech lenders, payments firms, and financial institutions serving the small business segment, as we move deeper into 2026.

4 Small Business Data Trends

1. Revenue Momentum Reversed Hard In Q4. Volatility Now Drives Credit Risk.

Quarterly Sales Growth 2025
Q1: +5.0%
Q2: +2.8%
Q3: +2.0%
Q4: −4.1%

Q4 Monthly Breakdown
October: −1.6%
November: −5.6%
December: −5.1%

A nine percentage point swing from Q1 to Q4, with the December quarter decline the largest since September 2020. The Q4 reversal showed how fast small business demand can change. Sales moved from solid growth early in the year to a sharp contraction by December.

See:  Global Fintech Investment Grew Over 20% in 2025

That kind of swing compresses reaction time. For lenders and platform providers, continuous revenue monitoring is more important than backward looking ratios. Fintechs that track live invoicing flows and cash inflows gain earlier warning signals. Banks that still rely on periodic reporting will be reactive.  The risk is no longer just default, it's also speed.

During periods of weaker revenue, founders focus on cash flow and credit, but they also need to review commercial insurance coverage options as risk exposure increases.

2. 2025 Growth Fell Well Below Historical Baseline

Full Year 2025 Average: +1.4%
Long Term Average: +4.5%

A sustained three percentage point gap versus historical norms. Not a single weak month but a structural softness across the year. When growth slows, small businesses focus on managing timing. They want certainty around receivables, payables, and liquidity buffers. Expansion plans move to the background. This changes product priorities. Tools that shorten receivable cycles, automate reconciliation, and provide flexible liquidity become core operating infrastructure. Working capital solutions that assume growth acceleration may miss the mark. Fintechs that help stabilize cash flow, and not amplify growth, may align better in this cycle.

3. Late Payments Improved Slight Even As Sales Weakened

Late Payment Days
June Quarter: 11.3 days
September Quarter: 9.8 days
December Quarter: 9.7 days
Long Term Average: 11.7 days

Time To Be Paid
June Quarter: 27.7 days
September Quarter: 26.3 days
December Quarter: 26.8 days

See:  Real Time Rail 2026 Q1 Update Expands Testing And Access

Revenue slowed, but businesses tightened receivables management. Payment behaviour improved into year end. Settlement timing held steady despite volatility in topline growth. This means payment behaviour data may now offer stronger forward insight than topline growth alone. If a business collects faster, even during a slowdown, that tells you something about discipline, customer quality, and internal controls. Fintech lenders that weight verified payment performance can price risk more precisely.

4. Provincial Dispersion Widened In The Downturn

Q4 Sales Growth By Province
British Columbia: −8.2%
Alberta: −4.0%
Ontario: −1.7%

Q4 Time To Be Paid
Ontario: 28.4 days
British Columbia: 27.5 days
Alberta: 26.6 days

Regional sales outcomes and liquidity conditions diverged materially. National averages masked local differences. The December quarter showed wide variation across provinces. Some regions contracted far more than others. That gap changes the risk profile of a portfolio. National averages smooth out reality. A lender with concentrated exposure in a weaker province carries different forward risk than one diversified across stronger regions. Regional segmentation should move from a reporting exercise to a pricing and limit setting discipline. Portfolio steering needs to reflect local operating conditions, not national headlines.

Closing Perspective

Q4 2025 showed a structural split: weaker sales, stronger collections, and widening regional differences. For fintech leaders, the opportunity is not just reacting to the decline. It's in building systems that continuously read revenue direction, payment velocity, and geographic exposure at a granular level. Firms that can master these variables in real time will support small businesses more effectively in lower growth environments.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Feb 21-27, 2026

February 27, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Intelligence | Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization, Regulation And Policy, Payments And Market Infrastructure, Risk Compliance And Regtech

Image Freepik, Data visualization signals

Image: Freepik

This live weekly NCFA intelligence page tracks financial technology developments that significantly affect how fintechs build, sell, raise capital, and operate under scrutiny. Coverage prioritizes Canada and includes global events that directly influence competitive conditions, market access, and execution realities across fintech sectors.  This page will be updated throughout the week with market movers in a live format and then each week we'll close the prior week's contents in prep for the upcoming week, and continue on a rolling basis.  (Missed prior week's Fintech Whisperer?  (December 6-12, 2025, December 13-19, 2025, January 1-9, 2026, January 10-16, 2026, January 17-23, 2026, January 24-30, 2026, January 31-February 6, 2026, February 7-13, 2026, February 14-20, 2026).

Weekly Fintech Market Intelligence Feb 21-27, 2026

Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization

NatGold Draws More Than US$469M In Pre-Market Token Demand

Feb 26, 2026, United States
  • The pre-market token reservation program closes with 17,466 individuals across 162 countries reserving 133,518 tokens.
  • Gross demand exceeds US$469M based on the company’s stated baseline intrinsic value.
  • The company says it is entering the execution phase and plans to announce the tokenization event and trading portal later.

This is early proof that capital is willing to line up behind an asset backed token model before issuance begins. It matters for tokenization platforms, digital asset builders, and market operators because demand at this level raises the stakes on what comes next, especially issuance design, trading access, settlement flow, and how real world asset tokenization earns trust beyond crypto native buyers.

FCA Selects 4 Firms To Test Stablecoin Issuance In Sandbox

Feb 25, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The FCA selects Monee Financial Technologies, ReStabilise, Revolut, and VVTX from 20 applications for its stablecoins cohort.
  • Testing begins in Q1 2026 and focuses primarily on stablecoin issuance, with selected use cases spanning payments, wholesale settlement, and crypto trading.
  • The FCA says findings will inform final UK stablecoin rules later in 2026 and states firms will need authorisation under the new regime when it goes live in October 2027, with an application gateway opening in September 2026.

This affects stablecoin issuers, wallet and exchange operators, payment firms that want stablecoin rails, and banks that can custody reserves or provide settlement accounts. The sandbox work turns authorisation readiness into near term execution, because counterparties will start asking who controls mint and burn, how reserves get safeguarded, how redemptions clear under stress, and what evidence you can produce before the September 2026 application gateway opens.

Crypto.com Secures Conditional OCC Approval For A National Trust Bank

Feb 23, 2026, United States
  • Crypto.com receives conditional OCC approval to charter Foris Dax National Trust Bank, doing business as Crypto.com National Trust Bank.
  • The company filed the application in October 2025 for the National Trust Bank to deliver custody, staking, and trade settlement as a federally regulated institution once fully approved.
  • The company says the conditional approval does not change operations at Crypto.com Custody Trust Company, its New Hampshire regulated non-depository trust company.

Institutional buyers tend to route flow to whoever can prove segregation, controls, and settlement certainty under supervision, and this move aims straight at that bar.

Payments And Money Movement

UK Payments Authorities Publish A Forward Plan Across Retail, Wholesale, And Digital Assets

Feb 26, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The Payments Forward Plan was Published by The Payments Vision Delivery Committee on February 26, 2026.
  • The committee brings together HM Treasury, the Bank of England, the FCA, and the Payment Systems Regulator, and the plan covers upcoming initiatives across retail and wholesale payments, including elements of digital assets.
  • The committee says it will add an enhanced focus on payments to the Regulatory Initiatives Grid in its first 2027 publication, giving firms a clearer view of what is coming and when.

This is important for payment firms, open banking providers, digital asset infrastructure teams, and banks building new rails in the UK. A single forward plan from all four authorities makes timing harder to ignore, because product roadmaps, compliance sequencing, and partner conversations now sit against a more visible policy calendar.

Peoples Group Teams With Fiserv To Build A Next Generation Payments Platform

Feb 25, 2026, Canada
  • Peoples Group and Fiserv say the platform will be built to deliver instant payments, always on infrastructure, and ISO 20022 data through direct connections to Canada’s payment systems.
  • The release ties the build to Payments Canada’s Real Time Rail deployment and says Peoples will use Fiserv technology to modernize its payments stack for clients and partners.
  • Peoples Group calls the move one of the most substantial technology investments in its history and says the platform is designed to support financial institutions and fintechs across Canada.

This is a real infrastructure and distribution move in Canadian payments. It affects fintechs that bank through Peoples, embedded finance and sponsor bank partners, and any firm building around faster payments rails, because a stronger bank plus processor stack can tighten expectations on integration, uptime, message quality, and partner readiness well before RTR becomes fully operational.

Artificial Intelligence And Data

Block Rebuilds Around AI While Gross Profit And Guidance Rise

Feb 26, 2026, United States
  • The workforce moves from over 10,000 to just under 6,000 (4,000 job cuts see NCFA write-up).
  • 2025 Q4 gross profit reaches $2.87B, up 24%.
  • 2026 gross profit guidance increases to $12.20B, up 18%.
  • “The core thesis is simple. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.
  • The company frames itself as becoming a smaller, faster, intelligence native company.

Is this a key domino in AI finance?  This is what AI looks like when it evolves from product feature to company structure. Large fintechs, payments platforms, and their investors now have a clear example of stronger results arriving alongside much smaller teams, placing more weight on execution quality, operating discipline, and how management builds from here.

Financial Inclusion And Access

NextFin Asia Launches A Dedicated Fund For Catapult Inclusion SE Asia

Feb 23, 2026, Luxembourg and Singapore
  • NextFin Asia launches as a dedicated fund that adds direct investment to the Catapult Inclusion SE Asia 3.0 program, shifting it from acceleration only to acceleration plus funding.
  • The launch runs as a partnership between the Luxembourg House of Financial Technology, Luxembourg’s Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs, Defence, Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade, and ADB Ventures at the Asian Development Bank.
  • The release set two 2026 milestones, with a June 2026 phase in Luxembourg and a November 2026 presence at the Singapore FinTech Festival.

This is one of the cleaner bridges between public capital, development finance, and founder scale. If you build inclusion fintech in ASEAN, expect the bar to move toward impact proof and deployment readiness, because capital now sits inside the same program that opens doors.

Regulation And Policy

OSFI Opens A Targeted Fast Track Approvals Framework For New Entrants

Feb 26, 2026, Canada
  • OSFI says the targeted fast track approvals framework will launch in June 2026 for eligible new entrants.
  • The initial scope covers provincial credit unions seeking continuance as federal credit unions and applicants with technologically innovative or emerging banking models seeking to incorporate as a bank or as a federally regulated trust and loan company.
  • The framework is intended to make the approvals path quicker, clearer, and more predictable through service standards, a risk based review approach, and a dashboard that tracks application progress.
  • There are no changes to application fees and that the framework is meant to create efficiencies without shifting effort away from other applicants.

This is a significant turn of events for credit unions, fintechs, and crypto custody models that want a federal charter in Canada. A clearer approvals path can change when firms choose to enter the federal perimeter and how seriously investors and partners treat that option.

OCC Opens GENIUS Act Stablecoin Rulemaking For Payment Issuers

Feb 25, 2026, United States
  • The OCC issues a notice of proposed rulemaking to implement the GENIUS Act for issuance of payment stablecoins and related activities under OCC jurisdiction.
  • The proposed rule applies to national banks and federal savings associations and their subsidiaries, federal branches and their subsidiaries, foreign payment stablecoin issuers, nonbank entities approved as federal qualified payment stablecoin issuers, and state qualified payment stablecoin issuers where the OCC has regulatory or enforcement authority.
  • It outlines standards and requirements in a new 12 CFR 15 covering activities, reserve assets, redemption, risk management, audits, reports, supervision, custody, applications and registrations, examination of foreign issuers, and a capital and operational backstop.
  • It also revises capital, prompt corrective action, fees, and rules of practice and procedure as part of the proposed framework.

It affects stablecoin issuers, banks, custodians, exchanges, and fintechs that plan to distribute payment stablecoins, because reserve design, redemption handling, audits, supervision, and custody expectations start to look like core product requirements, not optional features.

FCA Proposes Mandatory Credit Reporting And CRA Designation

Feb 25, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The FCA consults on CP26/7, implementing remedies from its credit information market study and sets a consultation deadline of 1 May 2026.
  • Proposes mandatory reporting for firms in the credit and mortgage markets and a framework for how credit information gets shared and used, including Designated Consumer Credit Reference Agencies.
  • Sets out intended scope that includes consumer credit and mortgage firms, credit reference agencies and credit information service providers, firms that share data with CRAs, and Gibraltar based consumer credit and mortgage lenders.

This affects lenders, CRAs, and fintechs that rely on bureau data for onboarding and underwriting. Teams should expect more pressure on data completeness, dispute handling, governance, and audit evidence because mandatory sharing can reset what a clean credit file must look like.

SEC Small Business Committee Reopens Finder Rules And Private Secondary Liquidity

Feb 24, 2026, United States
  • The SEC’s Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meets virtually Feb 24 from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET and continues a deep dive on “finders,” including potential regulatory improvements that could permit certain finders to engage in additional capital raising activity.
  • The committee agenda also moves into private secondary markets, including continuation funds, special purpose vehicles, and private tender offers, with speakers from PitchBook, Evercore, and Cooley.
  • In prepared remarks, Chairman Paul S. Atkins links the secondary market discussion to liquidity pressure as more firms stay private and calls out the friction created by resale restrictions, issuer transfer restrictions, and state blue sky laws.

This meeting keeps the door open to a simpler capital raising layer below broker dealer economics. Platforms, issuers, and service providers that touch private raises and secondary liquidity should watch for recommendations that tighten who can get paid, how referrals get documented, and what disclosure standard can unlock broader resale paths.

SEC Extends Wells Response Window And Adds Meeting Right

Feb 24, 2026, United States
  • SEC updates its enforcement manual and sets a four week baseline for Wells notice responses, up from the commonly used two week window.
  • The update adds a right to a meeting with SEC officials within four weeks after a Wells response is submitted.
  • The update also lays out a process for considering operational waivers while a firm negotiates a settlement.

This raises the value of process maturity. If your fintech faces enforcement exposure, the timeline gives more room to assemble evidence, but it also rewards teams that keep clean records and can explain decisions fast when scrutiny hits.

Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

Bloomberg And Kaiko Bring Licensed Market Data On-Chain For Tokenized Treasuries

Feb 26, 2026, United States and France
  • The initiative is designed to support access to Bloomberg Data License offerings on-chain through Kaiko’s infrastructure.
  • The initial focus is tokenized U.S. Treasuries and repo workflows on the Canton Network.
  • The companies position the build as a way to give counterparties a single, verifiable data source, reduce ambiguity, and lower reconciliation costs in tokenized workflows.

Important for tokenized markets because clean settlement depends on clean reference data. Teams building custody, collateral, repo, and tokenized securities infrastructure must soon meet a higher standard on pricing integrity, entitlement controls, and auditability as institutional workflows move on-chain.

OSFI Cuts Capital Charges For Domestic Infrastructure Debt

Feb 24, 2026, Canada
  • OSFI lowers capital requirements for domestic infrastructure debt for federally regulated property and casualty insurers, effective immediately and “until further notice.”
  • For unrated long term infrastructure debt, credit risk factors drop from 6% to 3% for terms of 1 year or less, from 8% to 4% for more than 1 year up to 5 years, and from 10% to 5% for more than 5 years.
  • For unrated short term infrastructure debt, the factor drops from 6% to 3% for terms of 1 year or less, and OSFI directs how insurers reflect the treatment in quarterly PC4 returns.

This is an immediate capital incentive change. If you sell insurer investment, treasury, or regulatory reporting tooling, expect more pressure to classify eligible exposure fast and produce clean evidence for PC4 filings while the treatment stays live.

CIRO Tightens Guidance On Self Trading Risk And Market On Close Controls

Feb 23, 2026, Canada
  • The guidance impacts CIRO regulated investment dealers and their Access Persons that enter orders on Canadian marketplaces under UMIR, including cases where orders could trade against each other for the benefit of the same person.
  • CIRO treats this pattern as potentially manipulative and deceptive under UMIR 2.2, subject to limited exceptions and Market Surveillance involvement.
  • CIRO also updates how dealers should use Market on Close facilities and states that an offsetting limit MOC order used to neutralize a market MOC order for the same person is a prohibited wash trade, while directing firms to contact Market Surveillance when an erroneous MOC order cannot be cancelled in its Market on Close guidance.

This raises the cost of weak pre-trade controls. Teams selling OMS, EMS, surveillance, or post trade tooling into dealers should expect more demand for guardrails that prevent self matching and catch close related mistakes early, plus audit ready evidence when exceptions still occur.

Conclusion

The market continues to tighten where new rails are forming, and where management teams are being forced to adapt faster. Stay nimble and ahead of the curve.  Be cautious about waiting for late stage confirmations. NCFA offers various curated resources to help founders and investors stay current on developments that impact fintech markets, subscribe to NCFA weekly newsletter updates, view a rundown of current fintech news and insights, or dive into the latest fintech industry research.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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UK Publishes 3 Year Payments Playbook for Fintechs

February 26, 2026 | NCFA Feature | Payments And Money Movement

UK Regulatory Coordination is Clear While Canada Moves in Parallel

On February 26, 2026, the UK published a Payments Forward Plan (download 8 page PDF here)that gives fintechs something they rarely get in one place: a coordinated three year sequence for payments policy across HM Treasury, the Bank of England, the FCA, and the Payment Systems Regulator.

Great not just for regulatory coordination but for founders, operators, and investors who don't just need rules. They need timing, ownership, and a visible order of work and execution, which helps steer the ship and build market confidence for the future of payments, open banking, stablecoins, and digital money movement.

Why This Stands Out

The Payments Forward Plan is a single sequenced plan with regulatory alignment from four regulatory authorities who collaborated on the Payments Vision Delivery Committee to execute the UK governments national payments vision. The roadmap covers retail payments, wholesale payments, and parts of digital assets, which means the UK is not treating payments as a narrow rails file. It is treating the next payments stack as a mix of bank rails, data sharing, digital money, and automation. That is what makes the document strategically useful. It gives the market a clearer view of what is coming, who carries which part of the file, and when firms should expect consultations, responses, gateways, and final rule work to land.

See:  Tangerine Turns to UK Fintech Engine and Lessons for Canada

For as long as NCFA has been working in the financial technology sector, the UK has long been considered the 'gold standard'; the benchmark for fintech regulation for a simple reason. When regulators reduce uncertainty about what lands next, firms spend more time building and less time guessing. It gives the market a clearer path. That kind of visibility lowers planning friction across the sector and gives serious teams a better chance to line up product, compliance, and partnerships before the rest of the market catches up.

UK Timeline And Canada Side By Side

Sector / Initiative United Kingdom Canada Notes / Comments
Regulatory coordination and forward planning One published cross regulator plan across HM Treasury, the Bank of England, the FCA, and the Payment Systems Regulator, with a visible three year sequence. Canada now has active public workstreams across retail payments supervision, consumer driven banking, and the stablecoin framework, but those files still sit across separate policy pages. Canada shows real movement across the same core layers. The main contrast is that the UK visibly puts more of the sequencing into one public roadmap.
Payments law and core policy sequencing Q2 2026 HM Treasury consultation, Q4 2026 response, then FCA consultations and policy statements through 2027 and 2028. Canada’s payments law sequencing is already live through the RPAA. Under the supervisory framework, PSP risk management and end user funds safeguarding requirements came into force on September 8, 2025, and firms that continue operating must meet ongoing supervision requirements. Canada has moved from consultation into operating supervision. The UK gives a longer visible forward sequence, while Canada is already in live compliance mode on the PSP file.
Open banking and consumer directed data sharing First live variable recurring payments under an industry led scheme in Q1 2026, FCA consultation in Q3 2026, and a policy statement in Q1 2027. Canada’s Budget 2025 framework for consumer driven banking says the government will complete the Consumer Driven Banking Act, move quickly on phase one regulation after Royal Assent, and spend the next 12 to 18 months on a second phase that considers broader functionality, participant scope, and write access. See Canada Open Banking Commercialization Roadmap Canada has a real public sequence here, even if it is not presented inside one cross regulator payments calendar.
Stablecoins, tokenised money, and tokenised deposits Bank consultation work in H1 2026, final Bank rules by end 2026, FCA policy statement in mid 2026, authorisation gateway in Q3 2026, and broader regime live in October 2027. The plan also explicitly considers tokenised payments and tokenised deposits. Canada’s official stablecoin framework says regulatory development starts after Royal Assent, continues over 12 to 18 months from early 2026, and is expected to come into force in 2027, with the Bank of Canada supervising issuers. Both markets are active on stablecoins. The UK currently shows more visible choreography, while Canada already has a defined federal policy frame and implementation window.
Wholesale payments The plan explicitly includes wholesale payments as part of the coordinated three year roadmap. The Bank of Canada says its forward focus includes policy work on wholesale and retail payments infrastructure as part of broader payments system research and policy development. Canada does have wholesale payments work in the official policy mix. What is less visible today is a single public milestone map that puts wholesale, retail, and digital assets on one page.
PSP oversight and supervisory perimeter The forward plan folds payments supervision and upcoming rule work into one coordinated policy calendar across multiple authorities. Under the RPAA mandate, the Bank of Canada supervises PSPs for operational risk, incident response, and end user fund protection, while the Minister of Finance handles national security screening. Canada’s supervisory perimeter is already real and active. The distinction is not whether oversight exists. It is how visibly the next steps are sequenced in public.
Payments rail access and infrastructure participation The UK plan covers retail and wholesale payments at a system level, including retail payments infrastructure design and short term enhancements to Faster Payments and Bacs by end 2026. Canada’s membership expansion rules now let RPAA supervised PSPs apply for direct participation in Payments Canada systems, and five new PSPs were admitted on January 27, 2026: Wise, Float, KOHO, Paramount Commerce, and Brim. Canada has moved from access policy to actual new entrants. That is a concrete infrastructure opening, even without one single national payments roadmap document.
CBDC and public digital money The digital pound design phase remains active through 2026, with a blueprint and a decision on the future of the digital pound expected this year. The Bank of Canada’s digital dollar page says it is scaling down work on a retail CBDC and shifting focus to broader payments system research and policy development, while continuing to monitor global retail CBDC developments and publish some related research. Canada has stepped back from active retail CBDC build work and put payments supervision and infrastructure higher on the near term agenda.
Financial inclusion and emerging payment models The plan explicitly includes financial inclusion and newer areas such as agentic AI payments inside the forward policy frame. Canada’s consumer driven banking framework explicitly points to second phase work on write access and, beyond that, says the government is laying the foundation for broader open finance and open data that can support wider digital public infrastructure. Canada is not mapping emerging payment models in the same broad way as the UK, but it's building policy groundwork that can widen payments and data driven product design over time.

What The UK Focus Says About The Next Payments Stack

By publishing a 3 year future of payments roadmap, the UK is highlighting where it thinks the market is going. The plan explicitly pulls in open banking, stablecoins, tokenised payments, tokenised deposits, financial inclusion, agentic AI payments, and the digital pound design phase. Its fair to say that the UK sees the future of payments as an integrated stack where money movement, data access, programmable money, and automated decisioning increasingly sit in the same operating environment.

Payments firm may need to think about account access, stablecoin settlement, variable recurring payments, AI enabled workflows, and reporting standards as connected decisions, not separate roadmaps. The UK is effectively telling the market to plan that way now.

Where Canada Still Looks More Fragmented

Canada’s issue is not a lack of movement. Open banking is moving. RPAA oversight is live. Stablecoin policy is taking shape. Payments Canada is widening access. The broader official backdrop is visible through Finance Canada’s financial sector policy hub. But firms still need to piece the sequence together from separate government pages, regulator actions, and infrastructure updates. That makes timing harder for founders, adds friction to internal planning, and creates more room for confusion in partner conversations.

The UK plan stands out because it cuts through that problem directly. It gives the market a more visible order of operations. Canada has substance, but not yet the same kind of single public sequencing document. That means more of the roadmap still has to be assembled by the private sector, which raises the execution burden on founders and operators who want to build ahead of policy instead of behind it.

Why Founders And Investors Should Care

For founders, if your business touches payments, open banking, stablecoins, treasury workflows, or digital money infrastructure, a visible sequence helps you decide what to build first, which approvals matter most, and when to line up counterparties. It also changes how you sell. Buyers trust teams that can point to named milestones and show how their roadmap lines up with them.

See:  Global Fintech Investment Grew Over 20% in 2025

For investors, the plan gives a cleaner way to test whether a management team understands the path ahead or is still talking in broad trends. Companies that map product work to visible regulatory milestones usually carry less policy execution risk than companies that wait for each new rule to land before they react. That same test now applies in Canada too. The opportunity is real, but it rewards teams that can connect the dots across consumer driven banking, RPAA supervision, Payments Canada access, and stablecoin policy without waiting for one master roadmap to do it for them.

The Takeaway

The UK has now published a cross regulator payments calendar with real ownership and visible sequencing for the next three years. Canada has real progress across the same core layers, but the path still takes more work to assemble. That is the real contrast. One market hands firms more of the map. The other still asks them to build more of it themselves. For on-going tracking of key impacts that matter most to markets, keep an eye on NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Fintech Intelligence as the UK timeline advances and Canada’s separate pieces continue to progress.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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Stablecoin Data Shows Payments Reality Gap

February 18 2026 | NCFA Market Insight | Digital Assets And Payments

Stablecoin volume versus payment tracking

Stablecoin Volume Looks Huge Until You Filter For Real Payments

On February 18 2026, McKinsey stablecoin transaction analysis reported that stablecoins accounted for up to $35T in annual on chain transaction volume, yet most of that activity doesn't represent real world payments.

McKinsey and Artemis estimate that actual stablecoin payments run at about $390B annually (about 0.02% of global payments volume), after filtering out trading, internal exchange movements, liquidity management, and automated smart contract loops.

Why This Gap Shows Up In The First Place

Public blockchains record value movement with precision, but they don't label intent. A single economic action can trigger multiple on chain steps, and large pools of stablecoins can move between wallets inside the same exchange or custodian without representing end user commerce. McKinsey uses raw volume as a starting point, not a proxy for adoption, and the methodology section explains how the team tags payment like patterns while excluding activity that reflects market structure rather than payments.

CoinDesk echoes the same measurement problem by reporting that stablecoins moved about $35T in transfers while only about 1% ties to genuine payments such as remittances and payroll. Payments industry coverage also confirms that stablecoin usage in payments is growing, yet most current activity still concentrates in internal or trading adjacent flows.

Market trackers help validate scale but they don't classify intent. CoinMarketCap aggregates stablecoin market cap and trading volume across listed tokens, which helps you track stablecoin liquidity concentration and market growth, not payments versus non payments.

Granular Tracking Beats Single Number Narratives

Stablecoin payments represent one slice of stablecoin utility, so a payments only lens understates what stablecoins do across trading, treasury movement, DeFi collateral, and settlement workflows.

At the same time, a raw volume lens overstates payment adoption. The right reporting approach breaks stablecoin activity into functional buckets and tracks each bucket with the data source that fits it. For payments, intent classification and tagging matter. For liquidity and market structure, market cap and trading metrics matter. For payment segmentation, the underlying research partner publishes its own breakdowns that support the McKinsey approach.

Takeaways

If you build payment rails, you should not pitch adoption using raw on chain volume. You should show where real payment flows concentrate, how fast those flows grow, and what integration path turns that activity into revenue.

If you sell to financial institutions, you should map stablecoin opportunity to specific payment problems such as cross border B2B settlement, payroll, and corridor based remittances, then quantify addressable volume using intent filtered benchmarks like the McKinsey and Artemis estimates.

See:  Stablecoins Power Prediction Market Settlement

If you track policy or competitiveness, you should treat stablecoins as a measurement case study. Blockchain data looks transparent, yet it still requires more granular classification, assumptions, and cross checks to translate value movement into economic activity.

Talking Point

If the market keeps quoting $35T as proof of payment adoption, who sets the standard for intent based stablecoin reporting so Canada can measure real productivity and competition impact with confidence


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Feb 14-20, 2026

February 20, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Intelligence | Regulation And Policy, Artificial Intelligence And Data, Payments And Money Movement, Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization, Risk Compliance And Regtech

Image Freepik, Data visualization signals

Image: Freepik

This live weekly NCFA intelligence page tracks financial technology developments that significantly affect how fintechs build, sell, raise capital, and operate under scrutiny. Coverage prioritizes Canada and includes global events that directly influence competitive conditions, market access, and execution realities across fintech sectors.  This page will be updated throughout the week with market movers in a live format and then each week we'll close the prior week's contents in prep for the upcoming week, and continue on a rolling basis.  (Missed prior week's Fintech Whisperer?  (December 6-12, 2025, December 13-19, 2025, January 1-9, 2026, January 10-16, 2026, January 17-23, 2026, January 24-30, 2026, January 31-February 6, 2026, February 7-13, 2026).

Weekly Fintech Market Intelligence Feb 14-20, 2026

Public Sector Policy And Industrial Strategy

Carney Launches Canada’s First Defence Industrial Strategy With A $4B BDC Defence Platform

Feb 17, 2026, Canada
  • The plan positions Canadian industry for $180B in defence procurement opportunities and $290B in defence related capital investment opportunities in Canada over the next 10 years, and it cites an anticipated $125B downstream economic benefit by 2035.
  • It creates the Defence Investment Agency to streamline processes, cut red tape, speed up procurement, and lead Canada’s participation in joint procurement initiatives.
  • It launches a new $4B Defence Platform at the Business Development Bank of Canada, plus a Drone Innovation Hub at the National Research Council funded at $105M over three years.

This is a procurement and capital boost for defence not seen in decades. Fintechs that help defence suppliers get paid faster, manage cash under milestone contracts, and prove tight controls on funds and data have a generational opportunity with real distribution next quarter.  See defence push: Montreal joins provincial bids for global DSR bank platform

Insurance And Insurtech

mea Platform Raised $50M To Automate Insurance Operations

Feb 17, 2026, Bermuda
  • mea Platform raised a $50M minority growth equity investment from SEP after bootstrapping since 2021 and reporting its fourth consecutive year of profitable growth.
  • The company reported live deployments across 21 countries and more than $400B of gross written premium processed through the platform.
  • The company said insurance operating costs account for up to 14 points of the combined ratio for carriers and nearly half of total expenses for brokers, and it put annual industry costs at about $2T, with claims of up to 60% reductions in operating costs from its automation.

This is a money and proof moment for insurtech. Founders selling automation into carriers and brokers should expect buyers to ask for hard baseline metrics, verified before and after results, and fast integration plans this quarter because the market now funds teams that tie automation to combined ratio math and measurable cost takeout.

Regulation And Policy

FCA Defines The UK Crypto Authorisation Application Window

Feb 20, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The FCA publishes a direction that sets a time bound application window for firms that want a cryptoasset permission under FSMA, with the window running from September 30 2026 to February 28 2027.
  • This confirms the UK transition path from current anti money laundering registration into a full FSMA authorisation model with formal permissions and ongoing supervision.
  • The FCA also publishes a crypto authorisations webinar Q&A that clarifies how it thinks about perimeter questions, overseas firm UK nexus, financial promotions and consumer protection, and early expectations on safeguarding and governance.
  • For MLR registered firms, timing now matters because firms need a continuity plan for how they operate while they move from registration into permissioned activity.

The UK is embedding crypto firms inside the existing Financial Services and Markets Act framework used for banks, investment firms, and other regulated financial institutions. Firms will likely need stronger governance, clearer business models, defined senior management accountability, and enough financial resources to pass a full authorisation assessment. This tends to favour well capitalized firms that can build institutional grade compliance and risk management from the start.

U.S. Supreme Court Says IEEPA Does Not Authorize Tariffs

Feb 20, 2026, United States
  • The Court decided the case on Feb 20, 2026 and held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
  • The syllabus described the challenged actions as a 25% duty on most Canadian and Mexican imports, a 10% duty on most Chinese imports, and a reciprocal tariff that applied to all imports from all trading partners at a rate of at least 10% with higher rates for dozens of nations.
  • The dissent described a 6-3 decision, and it noted the majority reached the result through two paths, ordinary statutory interpretation for three Justices and major questions analysis for three Justices.

Tariff volatility shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone and still important to note that this does not take tariffs off the table. Founders and investors should assume trade cost risk still moves through other statutes and policy tools, so the teams that win next quarter make cash forecasting, FX, and settlement controls easier to run when pricing and demand change overnight.

OSFI Closes Consultation On Capital Adequacy Requirements (CAR) Guidelines 2027

Feb 18, 2026, Canada
  • The consultation closed on February 18, 2026 and OSFI will keep the currently posted draft guidelines on the site until the final guidelines are released.
  • Read the 2026 CAR guidelines currently in effect.

This locks in the timeline banks plan around. Founders selling credit, underwriting, treasury, capital markets, or risk tooling into federally regulated institutions should expect earlier capital impact questions and tighter evidence requests in the next quarter because partners align product decisions to November 2026 and January 2027 effective dates long before final publication.

Bank Of Canada Orders XTM To Immediately Stop Retail Payment Activity

Feb 17, 2026, Canada
  • The Bank of Canada issues a temporary order requiring XTM Inc. to immediately cease performing retail payment activities.
  • The Bank says the order prohibits transactions or withdrawals from accounts associated with the AnyDay platform.
  • The Bank publishes the full order in the temporary order document.

BoC's action should put every payments and wallet provider on notice. Partners should ask sharper questions about where customer funds sit, who controls access, how fast you can prove balances, and how you recover when something breaks. Teams that can answer those questions with evidence keep distribution moving when scrutiny rises. Feb 27, 2026 Update:  The Bank of Canada issues a revised order that allows XTM to resume retail payment activities under court supervised monitoring (a controlled restart).

Canada And Germany Sign AI Joint Declaration And Launch Sovereign Technology Alliance

Feb 14, 2026, Germany

This can open practical opportunities into German buyers and programs, but only for teams that can pass strict security and governance reviews. Fintechs using AI should expect tougher diligence on where models run, how data moves, how vendors get controlled, and how incidents get handled. If you can show that evidence quickly, you may shorten procurement cycles and avoid months of back and forth.  Large buyers tend to follow the standards governments back when they buy software at scale.

Payments, Cross Border, And Money Movement

Anchorage Digital Launches Stablecoin Solutions For Banks

Feb 19, 2026, United States
  • Anchorage Digital launches Stablecoin Solutions for Banks for licensed international banks that want to settle USD across borders using stablecoin rails through Anchorage Digital Bank.
  • The stack bundles mint and redeem, custody, fiat treasury management, and settlement, with access to both stablecoin and fiat wallets.
  • Anchorage positions the offering as stablecoin agnostic and frames it as a bank pathway to always on USD settlement while U.S. stablecoin rules evolve.

This is how stablecoins get real distribution, through bank grade plumbing that owns the hard parts. The next quarter gets more competitive for cross border payments and FX because buyers will compare everyone against always on settlement plus clean, provable books, not just a faster rail.

Desert Financial Credit Union Unified Instant And Next Generation Payments

Feb 19, 2026, United States
  • Desert Financial Credit Union selected Alacriti’s Orbipay Payments Hub to unify payment operations and support instant and next generation payments.
  • The single hub supports the FedNow Service, the RTP network, and Visa Direct money movement, plus modernized wire transfers.
  • Desert Financial reported more than $9B in assets and 500,000+ members, and it said members received $16M in dividends through the Member Giveback Bonus in 2026.

This is what a real time payments stack looks like when a credit union commits to execution. Vendors selling into credit unions should plan for tighter requirements on open APIs, core and digital banking integration, automated balancing, and exception handling in the next quarter because buyers now expect one platform to run multiple rails without adding operational headcount.

Ericsson And Mastercard Expand Digital Money Movement and Financial Inclusion

Feb 18, 2026, Global
  • The announcement links the Ericsson Fintech Platform with Mastercard services to support digital money movement across more markets.
  • It leans on telecom distribution, where a carrier can reach users and small businesses that do not get easy access through banks.
  • It pulls more transaction volume into large network rulebooks, which raises the cost of weak fraud control, slow dispute handling, and messy reconciliation.

This partnership puts telecom scale on the same path as regulated payouts. If you want in, plan for a buyer that starts by stress testing your operations, not your pitch. Bring evidence you can trace every $ end to end, spot problems fast, reverse or recover cleanly, and keep service levels steady when volume spikes or fraud pressure rises. The teams that win make risk controls feel invisible to users while giving partners real time confidence that money moves exactly as promised.

Treasury Liquidity And Cash Management

Modern Treasury Launched A PSP Across Bank Rails And Stablecoins

Feb 18, 2026, United States
  • Announced the launch of 'Payments' as an integrated payment service provider that helps teams embed fiat and stablecoin money movement using Modern Treasury’s banking, blockchain, and compliance infrastructure.
  • The PSP supports ACH, wire, RTP, FedNow, push to card, and stablecoins including USDG, USDP, and USDC, with USDT noted as coming soon.
  • The platform processed more than $400B and it named customers including Anchorage Digital, Float, Gusto, Navan, Procore, and Sling Money.

Founders selling treasury and payments infrastructure should expect tougher questions on reconciliation, exception handling, and control ownership in the next quarter because a bundled PSP sets a higher baseline for speed and operational calm.

Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

Ledn Closes A $188M Bitcoin Backed ABS With An Investment Grade Rating

Feb 20, 2026, Canada
  • Ledn closed a $188M asset backed security backed by bitcoin collateralized loans.
  • S&P assigned an investment grade BBB- rating to the senior notes under the offering.
  • The deal was 2x oversubscribed and institutional demand exceeded the $188M offering size.

This is a real bridge into institutional credit rails. Founders building crypto credit, collateral, custody, and risk tooling should expect tougher questions next quarter on liquidation rules, collateral segregation, reporting, and investor grade controls, because rated structures pull crypto lending into the same discipline set as mainstream ABS.

Cybersecurity Fraud And Financial Crime

PSR Fined Bank Of Ireland UK For A Confirmation Of Payee Delay

Feb 19, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The PSR states it fined Bank of Ireland UK plc £3,779,300 for implementing a system to send Confirmation of Payee checks after the deadline.
  • The PSR states the safeguard did not apply to transactions involving more than 1.14 million new payees, with payments totalling approximately £6.9 billion.
  • The action shows regulators treat payment safety controls as enforceable operating requirements, not optional enhancements.

This tightens delivery expectations for banks and their vendors. Payments and onboarding fintechs should expect stricter timelines and stronger evidence demands next quarter because partial coverage can trigger enforcement.

Conclusion

This week shows the market continuing to get stricter and more operational. OSFI closes the CAR 2027 consultation and puts bank capital planning on a fixed runway. The Bank of Canada order against XTM puts wallets and payments providers back under a microscope on safeguarding and access controls. Modern Treasury pushes more buyers toward one provider that owns rails, reporting, and controls. Desert Financial’s move into FedNow, RTP, and Visa Direct shows how fast credit unions now expect real time payments to work at scale. mea Platform’s $50M round reinforces that capital still rewards insurance automation when it ties directly to combined ratio math. The PSR fine in the UK makes clear that payments safety controls ship on deadline, or regulators step in.

NCFA offers various curated resources to help founders and investors stay current on developments that impact fintech markets, subscribe to NCFA weekly newsletter updates, view a rundown of current fintech news and insights, or dive into the latest fintech industry research.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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Global Fintech Investment Grew Over 20% in 2025

February 20, 2026 | Global Fintech Funding Research

Freepik Businessman analyzing global fintech market

Image: Freepik

Fintech Investment Rose in 2025 But Access to Capital Tightens

On February 18, 2026, KPMG released Pulse of Fintech H2 2025 reporting global fintech investment reached $116B in 2025, up from $95.5B in 2024, while total deal count fell to 4,719, the lowest level in eight years. That combo tells the real story. More money shows up, but it doesn’t spread out. It stacks into fewer companies, fewer rounds, and more pressure on proof.

Regions Show Where Capital Actually Lands

KPMG’s regional totals show how concentrated 2025 really was. The Americas pulled in $66.5B across 2,409 deals, with the United States at $56.6B across 1,977 deals. Canada sits inside the Americas corridor where the biggest pools of capital live, but that also means Canadian fintechs compete head to head with scaled US plays for the same investor attention.

See:  H1 2025 Global Fintech Funding Slows, Some Sectors Firing

The report shows Canadian venture capital fintech investment dropped from $9.9B in 2024 to $2.4B in 2025. A few large late stage rounds can dominate totals in a smaller market, so timing matters. Still, perception isn't great and Canada can’t rely on one breakout year to carry credibility and market confidence.

EMEA recorded $29.2B across 1,484 deals.

ASPAC came in at $9.3B across 763 deals.

Exit value more than doubled to $104.4B in 2025 from $46.8B in 2024, and exit deal count rose to 486 from 438. Stronger exits recycle capital and resets valuation benchmarks. It won’t lift every company but it can improve the mood for 2026 if momentum holds.

Payments Stays Big But Consolidates

KPMG shows payments investment totals $19.2B in 2025 compared with $20.4B in 2024, while deal count falls from 655 to 542. The segment stayed large, but investors picked winners.

The report also flags continued payments traction in emerging markets in H2 2025, with South America standing out, supported by instant payments regimes such as Brazil’s Pix and Argentina’s Transferencias 3.

For Canadian payments firms, this isn’t about chasing every corridor. It’s about owning a clear wedge. If you can show strong fraud outcomes, fast settlement, clean reconciliation, and deep enterprise integration, you stand a chance in a market that rewards proof. If you can’t, you’ll get stuck in the crowded middle.

Digital Assets Return Through Stablecoins And Tokenization

Digital assets and currencies investment rose from $11.2B across 1,584 deals in 2024 to $19.1B across 1,199 deals in 2025. Dollars r0se while deals fell, which usually means institutions backed fewer, larger infrastructure outcomes. KPMG points to stablecoins, corporate participation, and regulatory clarity as drivers going into 2026. KPMG also highlights growing interest in asset tokenization, including money market funds and real estate.

Canada’s opportunity sits in the infrastructure layer. Regulated custody, compliant settlement, strong controls, and enterprise tokenization tooling can travel across borders. Delays cost builders time, and time costs them market position and money.

AI In Fintech Gets Funded When It Moves Real Metrics

Investment in AI driven fintech rose from $12.1B in 2024 to $16.8B in 2025, while deal count rose from 1,183 to 1,334. This is one of the few areas where both dollars and deal flow grew. Still, KPMG notes corporates often partner directly with large tech and AI providers, which raises the bar for specialist fintechs.

See:  AI Agents and the New Return on Intelligence in Finance

Canadian AI fintech teams can’t just say they use AI. They’ve got to show what it changes. Lower fraud losses, faster underwriting, better collections, fewer false positives, and lower service cost. If the numbers don’t move, the story won’t land with investors/buyers.

Insurtech Jumps On Mega Deals, Not Broad Funding

Insurtech rebounded from $2.9B in 2024 to $8.6B in 2025 while deal volume slipped to a 10 year low of 291 deals. KPMG linked much of the rebound to two outlier transactions, including the $2.6B acquisition of Next Insurance and the $2.5B take private of Sapiens International. That’s the lesson. A handful of transactions can drive the headline while most companies still fight for small checks.

Cybersecurity Funding Falls While Demand Stays Intense

Cybersecurity investment fell to $0.7B in 2025 from $0.9B in 2024, and deal count fell to 72 from 93. At the same time, rapid change driven by AI is increasing the focus on data security because automation depends on trusted data. Banks are consolidating data into protected lakes to support advanced automation and exploring new security models to reduce operating cost while improving outcomes.

This funding dip means larger buyers and platforms are taking more control. Canadian security focused fintechs need to sell enterprise outcomes that tie directly to risk reduction and operational cost.

Regtech Value Declines While Deals Rise

Regtech investment dropped from $6.8B in 2024 to $4.9B in 2025 while deal count rose from 431 to 519. That pattern often means smaller rounds and cautious checks. The report also describes large banks investing more in internal AI driven compliance tools, which can reduce third party budgets for point solutions.

See:  Cortina Milano Olympic Commerce Fraud Tests Payments Safeguards

Canadian regtech firms should focus on selling what banks can’t build quickly, such as shared utilities, cross institution data networks, workflow embedded reporting, and tooling that reduces total compliance cost at scale.

Wealthtech Cools Off as Wealthsimple Produces Scale

Wealthtech investment fell to $1.4B in 2025 from $4.9B in 2024 while deal count stayed almost flat at 57 in 2025 versus 58 in 2024. KPMG highlights a Canadian bright spot in Wealthsimple who secured about US $538M (CAD $750M) in an equity funding round in H2 2025, and was just awarded CIX Summit's 2026 Innovator of the Year award. That shows global capital still backs Canadian category leaders when they reach scale and earn trust.

What This Means For Canada Right Now

Canada faces the challenge of global capital concentrating while Canada’s totals reset from $9.9B to $2.4B. That creates a narrative risk if Canada doesn’t produce repeatable scale outcomes. The upside sits in the same places global capital is leaning into. Payments still attracts large dollars even as investors consolidate. Digital assets funding returns through stablecoins and tokenization infrastructure. AI fintech attracts both dollars and deal flow when it improves real operating results.

Canada needs to stay focused and practical.  Build infrastructure grade companies, prove measurable outcomes early, and tie growth to regulated adoption. That’s where the bigger checks go when fewer companies are getting funded.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Feb 7-13, 2026

February 13, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Intelligence | Regulation And Policy, Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization, Risk Compliance And Regtech, Payments And Money Movement, Digital Banking And BaaS

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This live weekly NCFA intelligence page tracks financial technology developments that significantly affect how fintechs build, sell, raise capital, and operate under scrutiny. Coverage prioritizes Canada and includes global events that directly influence competitive conditions, market access, and execution realities across fintech sectors.  This page will be updated throughout the week with market movers in a live format and then each week we'll close the prior week's contents in prep for the upcoming week, and continue on a rolling basis.  (Missed prior week's Fintech Whisperer?  (December 6-12, 2025, December 13-19, 2025, January 1-9, 2026, January 10-16, 2026, January 17-23, 2026, January 24-30, 2026, January 31-February 6, 2026).

Weekly Fintech Market Intelligence Feb 7-13, 2026

Regulation And Policy

Bessent Urges Congress To Pass A Crypto Regulation Bill This Spring

Feb 13, 2026, United States
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls on Congress to pass a crypto regulation bill this spring.
  • The report links stablecoin rules and broader crypto market structure to current policy debate, with banks and crypto firms pushing competing views on how far stablecoins can go inside everyday payments.
  • The report describes bank lobbying tension around stablecoins, including concerns about deposit flight and how reward features could accelerate it.

If Congress moves in the spring, US partners will start asking harder questions now on stablecoin rewards, reserve treatment, and how customer funds and disclosures work across the full stack. Canadian fintechs that sell into US banks, issuers, brokers, or payment programs should treat this as a near term diligence trigger and tighten their positioning on governance, controls, and commercial terms before counterparties freeze decisions waiting for clarity.

US Treasury Opens A Whistleblower Intake For Fraud And Sanctions Evasion

Feb 13, 2026, United States
  • The release says FinCEN launches a dedicated intake page for confidential tips tied to fraud, money laundering, and sanctions violations.
  • It points tipsters to the confidential whistleblower tips page on the FinCEN site.
  • Complex fraud rings and sanctions evasion patterns surface faster through insiders, vendors, or counterparties, not only through bank monitoring.

This can tighten the enforcement loop for fintech ecosystems that touch payments, onboarding, compliance tooling, crypto rails, and cross border flows. Expect more partner questions on how you detect red flags, how you document decisions, and how quickly you can freeze, unwind, and report activity when a credible tip lands. Teams that treat case management and audit trails as part of the product will move faster in enterprise sales and face fewer surprises when an investigation starts.

CIRO Publishes InnovateSafe Application Guidance For Firms

Feb 11, 2026, Canada
  • Sets out eligibility, intake materials, review stages, and expectations for time limited testing under CIRO oversight with clear non-endorsement guardrails.
  • Practical path for firms that need room to test novel investor facing models while staying inside dealer rules.
  • Gives founders a clearer way to plan timelines, evidence controls, and shorten the loop with regulators when a model does not fit standard categories.

This matters because sandbox access only helps when it reduces time and uncertainty. Teams that show strong governance, clear client protections, and clean reporting will move faster than teams that treat testing as a demo day.  Learn about eligibility of the application process.

Hong Kong Sets Out A Digital Asset Policy With Tokenization In Focus

Feb 11, 2026, Hong Kong
  • The statement links current digital asset policy work to market structure outcomes, with a clear focus on tokenization moving closer to real world deployment.
  • Tokenization momentum as institutional adoption increases, which puts pressure on regulators to make rules usable for live products, not just pilots.
  • Regulation as a competitive lever, where clarity can attract issuers, platforms, and service providers that need stable operating conditions.

When a major hub ties tokenization to competitiveness, it raises the stakes for everyone else. Canadian fintechs that sell tokenized rails, custody, compliance, or payments infrastructure should watch how Hong Kong turns policy into approvals, because global buyers will compare jurisdictions and pick the one that reduces execution risk. The winners will package governance, controls, and reporting into the product so expansion doesn't turn into a compliance rebuild.

Crowdcube Says FCA Removes Fundraising Caps Pathway

Feb 10, United Kingdom
  • Crowdcube presents this as a material change for companies raising on its platform.  See FCA new rules for public offers and admissions to trading regime.
  • The post connects the change to UK fundraising rules and the practical ability to raise larger rounds through platform led offers.
  • The update matters for founders and investors because it can change round sizing, syndication strategy, and platform selection in the UK market.

If the UK market truly removes practical caps for platform led raises, UK equity crowdfunding starts to compete more directly with later stage private rounds, not just seed. Canadian issuers and Canadian investors who already treat the UK as a secondary capital lane should watch how this affects round structure, disclosure burden, investor protections, and the cost of running a raise at scale.

Canada Launches 2026 Canada Luxembourg Financial Policy Dialogue

Feb 9, 2026, Canada
  • The Prime Minister and Luxembourg Prime Minister announce the launch of the 2026 Canada Luxembourg Financial Sector Policy Dialogue that brings together finance officials to advance collaboration on financial stability, sustainable finance, fintech innovation, and capital markets development.
  • The release also welcomes the establishment of the McGill Luxembourg Centre for Finance and a Master of Management in Finance program, with a focus on research collaboration and student and talent exchanges.
  • The leaders also point to ongoing discussions on the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, framed as multi-year low-cost financing for defence, security, and resilience initiatives.

This opens a practical channel for policy and market alignment with a top tier global finance hub. Fintechs that sell into banks, asset managers, or capital markets should track what this dialogue prioritizes, because it can influence what partners will fund, which standards they adopt, and where they source talent. Teams that can show real solutions in sustainable finance workflows, regulated innovation, and cross border market plumbing can use this moment to get in front of the right officials and decision makers early.

SEC Remarks Put Tokenized Securities Back Inside Market Rules

Feb 9, 2026, United States
  • Links tokenized securities to the same core outcomes buyers already demand, clear custody responsibility, reliable recordkeeping, and workable settlement.
  • Sets expectations that product teams need to map on chain design to existing obligations, not treat tokenization as a separate lane.
  • Raises the bar for any firm pitching tokenized market access, because partners will ask how controls, supervision, and investor protections work end to end.

This matters because institutional adoption follows clarity. If your product cannot explain who holds control, who reconciles records, and how disputes get resolved, distribution will slow down no matter how good the tech looks.

EU Competition Case Targets WhatsApp Access For Third Party AI Assistants

Feb 8, 2026, European Union
  • The Commission sends a Statement of Objections that sets out a preliminary view that Meta breaches EU antitrust rules by excluding third party general purpose AI assistants from accessing and interacting with users on WhatsApp.
  • The Commission says Meta announces updated WhatsApp Business Solution Terms on Oct 15, 2025 that effectively ban third party general purpose AI assistants, and since Jan 15, 2026 only Meta AI remains available on WhatsApp while competitors are excluded.
  • The Commission says it intends to impose interim measures to prevent serious and irreparable harm to competition, subject to Meta’s reply and rights of defence, and it references the ongoing case file AT.41034 in the public case register ('Exclusion of AI competitors from WhatsApp").

Competition under the microscope, and it matters far beyond chatbots. If regulators treat access to high reach consumer channels as a competition issue, fintechs and financial institutions that rely on dominant platforms for onboarding, support, commerce, and embedded services should expect tighter questions about platform dependency, partner lock in, and contingency plans when a gatekeeper changes the rules.

Digital Banking And BaaS

Raqami Secures Pakistan Digital Retail Bank Licence

February 9, 2026, Pakistan
  • The State Bank of Pakistan granted Raqami Islamic Digital Bank a Digital Retail Bank licence and declared it a scheduled bank effective February 6, 2026.
  • The approval moves Raqami beyond restricted pilot operations into commercial digital retail banking.
  • Raqami is launching a fully digital, Shariah-compliant banking model designed to serve individuals, freelancers, women, agricultural customers, youth and underserved communities.

Pakistan has moved a fully digital Islamic bank from pilot to commercial operations. The market test is now whether API-first banking and Shariah-compliant products can expand formal financial access at scale while meeting the control, resilience and trust expectations attached to a newly licensed bank.

Digital Assets, Blockchain And Tokenization

UK Treasury Appoints HSBC For Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) Pilot

Feb 12, 2026, United Kingdom
  • Confirms a platform provider for the Digital Gilt Instrument pilot tied to the UK wholesale digital markets work.
  • Puts tokenized sovereign issuance into an execution phase that forces choices around onboarding, settlement operations, and legal certainty.
  • Creates a clear reference point for vendors that sell issuance tooling, custody, post trade workflows, and compliance automation.

The DIGIT pilot forces a few hard questions that every tokenized issuance vendor will face next. Who carries legal finality at each step. How participants reconcile token records with existing books without creating mismatches in stress. How the platform handles failed settlement, partial fills, and corporate actions without manual fire drills. HSBC’s selection also sets a benchmark for what UK buyers treat as table stakes, clean integration into current dealer and custodian workflows, clear control over keys and permissions, and audit ready evidence for every movement. If you sell issuance tooling, custody, post trade automation, or compliance workflows, you should map your roadmap to those practical asks now, because this pilot will shape the next wave of due diligence questions across wholesale markets.

Standard Chartered And B2C2 Partner To Expand Institutional Access To Digital Assets

Feb 11, 2026, Singapore
  • The announcement sets out a strategic partnership that combines a global bank’s banking rails and settlement capabilities with institutional crypto liquidity across spot and options markets.
  • The plan gives B2C2 clients a path to direct connectivity and liquidity provision into a regulated banking network, which targets faster and more reliable fiat to crypto settlement.
  • The release positions the partnership as a way to reduce friction in fiat to crypto flows for asset managers, hedge funds, corporates, and family offices.

This puts distribution and settlement on the same track as liquidity. Fintechs selling custody, treasury, payments, or compliance tooling should expect tougher buyer questions on how funds move end to end, how controls stay intact through banking rails, and how settlement risk gets boxed in when volume spikes.

Bank Negara Malaysia Onboards Ringgit Stablecoin And Tokenized Deposit Pilots

Feb 11, 2026, Malaysia
  • Bank Negara Malaysia onboards three initiatives under its Digital Asset Innovation Hub to test real world applications involving ringgit stablecoins and tokenized deposits during 2026.
  • The initiatives focus on wholesale payment use cases across domestic and cross border transactions, including settlement of tokenized assets.
  • One participating institution says it received approval to participate in the hub and plans to explore tokenization of sukuk issuance and tokenized deposit representations to support end to end payment and settlement workflows.

If Malaysia standardizes supervised testing around wholesale payments and asset settlement, builders should track what the regulator expects around issuance controls, settlement finality, and operational risk. For banks and fintech partners, the fastest path to scale usually comes from proving how the money behaves under stress, not from polishing the user interface.

FCA Starts Legal Action Against HTX Over Crypto Promotions

Feb 10, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The regulator begins legal proceedings against HTX (formerly Huobi) for promoting cryptoasset services to UK consumers without complying with the UK crypto financial promotions regime.
  • The FCA asked social media platforms to block HTX accounts for UK users and asked for removal of HTX apps from UK app stores.
  • They said HTX took steps to restrict new UK customer registrations after proceedings began, but it says existing UK users can still log in and access unlawful promotions, and it points readers to the warning list for unauthorised firms.

Fintech teams that rely on paid social, affiliates, influencers, or embedded widgets should treat marketing controls as part of the product. Buyers and partners will ask who approves copy, how teams prove UK targeting rules, and how fast they can pull campaigns across every channel. The teams that answer those questions cleanly keep momentum. The teams that cannot will watch growth stall at the trust layer.  On a similar vein in Canada, the CSA and CIRO Set Clear Rules for Finfluencers.

Bithumb Mistakenly Sends Bitcoin Worth $44B To Users

Feb 7, 2026, South Korea
  • Bithumb confirms it mistakenly sends bitcoin to users after a glitch in its reward distribution system.
  • The mistaken distribution totals about $44B worth of bitcoin and the exchange asks users to return the funds.
  • Police also urge recipients to return the mistakenly sent bitcoin.
  • Lee Chan-jin, governor of the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) says tougher crypto rules needed, "It is a case that shows the structural problems of electronic systems for virtual assets. There are many areas we are seriously looking into, and we are particularly worried about the issue of electronic systems."

This kind of operational failure rarely stays a one day headline in regulated markets. It turns into tougher questions from banks, insurers, and regulators about change controls, payout logic, segregation, and how quickly a platform can prove what happened. Fintech teams should treat payment engines and automated transfers like critical infrastructure, with tight permissions, clear audit trails, and hard stops that prevent a bad config from turning into a balance sheet event.

Market Infrastructure

LSEG Plans An On Chain Settlement Capability With A Digital Securities Depository

Feb 12, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The release describes plans for an on chain settlement capability through an LSEG Digital Securities Depository, subject to regulatory approval.
  • It positions interoperability between traditional and digital market infrastructure as a core requirement for tokenized settlement at scale.
  • It raises expectations for integration, resiliency, and operational control across token records and existing post trade systems.

LSEG putting its name behind on chain settlement changes the competitive map, where regulators, CCPs, CSDs, custodians, and major brokers set the rules of the road. Interoperability becomes the make or break issue, not chain choice, because participants will demand one operating model that works across traditional settlement, collateral, corporate actions, and reporting. Fintechs that want to matter here should lean into the hard parts, how they reconcile token and legacy records without gaps, how they manage permissions and key control at institutional scale, and how they keep settlement predictable during spikes, outages, and exceptions. The winners will look like the safest pair of hands in the room, with proof that their tooling reduces manual breaks and shrinks settlement risk for real participants, not just pilot users.

South Africa Plans To Use ECB Repo Liquidity Lines For Euro Backstop

Feb 7, 2026, South Africa
  • The South African Reserve Bank governor says South Africa wants to use new European Central Bank repo liquidity lines if they are available.
  • The ECB plans to make its repo liquidity lines cheaper and easier to access, and that the lines let foreign central banks borrow euros against euro denominated collateral during stress periods.
  • The governor links the value of a repo line to trade and investment ties with Europe and says it would help underpin that trade.

This matters because cross border money movement often breaks first when liquidity gets tight. A stronger euro backstop can reduce settlement fear for banks that route Europe linked flows, and it can change how counterparties price risk in FX, trade finance, and payouts. Fintechs that sell treasury, FX, and cross border payment tooling can stand out when they show how their rails behave under stress and how they keep funds moving when funding markets turn ugly.

Conclusion

Stablecoin reward design sits on the desk of banks and lawmakers. CIRO custody expectations raise the standard for how platforms document segregation and access. The UK payments plan turns into real requirements that land inside onboarding, fraud controls, and settlement resilience. Tokenized assets, including tokenized gold, now face the same demand from buyers, show custody, show redemption, and show who owns the problem when something goes wrong. NCFA offers various curated resources to help founders and investors stay current on developments that impact fintech markets, subscribe to NCFA weekly newsletter updates, view a rundown of current fintech news and insights, or dive into the latest fintech industry research.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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