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Mills Review Response Targets AI Execution Barriers

Mar 19, 2026 | NCFA Feature | AI Finance Policy

AI in Finance Policy

UK Industry Sets Clear AI Policy Priorities

On Jan 27 2026, the UK Financial Conduct Authority launched the Mills Review into the long term impact of AI on retail financial services to examine how AI could reshape consumers, firms, markets, and regulation through to 2030. NCFA flagged the review earlier in NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Jan 24-30, 2026.

On Mar 4 2026, Innovate Finance submitted its response to the Mills Review, setting out where the UK fintech industry believes deployment will stall unless policy and infrastructure move faster. The paper cites Bank of England and FCA data showing 75% of firms now use AI, up from 58% in 2022. The issue is no longer whether AI adoption will happen. It is what still blocks firms from using AI inside live financial workflows at scale.

What The Industry Is Asking For

  1. Keep AI regulation principles based and outcomes focused. The point is to avoid rigid rules that will age badly as models and tools change.
  2. Give firms clearer examples of good and poor practice. High level principles are not enough when firms need to deploy AI in regulated settings.
  3. Clarify assurance requirements for third party AI tools and for senior managers responsible for them. Most firms will not build every model in house, so external model use needs a clearer control standard.
  4. Review the rulebook and remove blockers in high value AI use cases. The paper points to debt advice, affordability in lending, agentic payments, and wallets.
  5. Prevent gatekeepers from controlling access to models, data, or agents, especially in payments. If a small number of providers control that layer, they can control distribution.
  6. Move Open Finance, digital assets, and Digital ID forward at the same pace. AI in finance depends on trusted data, verified identity, and usable infrastructure.
  7. Back this with a strategy to make the UK the world leader in AI adoption in financial services by 2030.

Why These Asks Matter

AI is clearly evolving from chatbot assistance to execution at scale.  The submission describes AI agentic systems that can act on behalf of users. One example is an AI bot that handles everything from comparing mortgage deals to submitting the application and coordinating with conveyancers under user permission.

The value is no longer only in the model itself (ie. speed, quality, cost, expertise), but rather the full operational chain from customer permission to data access to execution to payment. That's why industry is focused on a stacked layer of tech solutions from Open Finance and Digital ID to payment access and rulebook friction to ensure AI can fully complete financial tasks.

See: Pro Human AI Declaration Gains Backing Across Sectors

The same logic applies to industry concerns over gatekeepers. As AI agents begin to initiate and route transactions, control moves to the layer that connects the agent to the payment method and the financial product. If that layer becomes concentrated, a small number of providers can influence access, routing, and competition.

The response uses real commercial examples and market data, highlighting that AI in finance is already underwriting, trading, core banking, and compliance.

  • One embedded finance platform says it's facilitated more than £7 billion in SME revenue worldwide and is twice as likely to approve financing for female-owned businesses compared with the UK average.
  • A core banking technology provider says it was last valued at $2.7 billion and employs more than 500 people globally.
  • The submission also notes that algorithmic trading accounts for roughly 60% to 75% of activity across major U.S., European, and Asian markets.
  • It adds that the RegTech market could reach $88 billion by 2032.

The next phase isn't whether or not firms can build AI tools. It is whether regulation and infrastructure will allow them to use those tools in broader customer and transaction flows.

The stronger points made is that AI in finance won't scale on model quality alone. It will however scale on the stack around the model. That means smart data, Open Finance, Digital ID, fraud data sharing, wallet infrastructure, and payment access. Without those layers, AI stays stuck in narrow support roles. With them, it can move into lending, advice, payments, and automated execution.

See:  India’s AI Declaration Pulls In BRICS And Western Powers

That is why the response is more useful than another generic values and ethics based AI policy statement. It identifies where deployment slows, where control could become concentrated, and what has to move together if the UK wants AI to scale significantly inside financial services.

Why This Matters For Canada

Canada is also building its next AI strategy. The federal government launched an AI Strategy Task Force in September 2025 as part of a 30 day national sprint, and later said it heard from more than 11,000 Canadians and 28 task force members. The Canadian process is broad. It is focused on national AI leadership, trust, safety, adoption, and public interest.

That broad approach is already raising execution questions. NCFA covered this earlier in its analysis of Canada’s AI strategy and capital flight risk, which argued that deployment, investment, and commercialization need clearer direction.

The UK industry response to the Mills Review is more targeted. It focuses on what is blocking AI deployment inside financial services today. Open Finance, Digital ID, payment access, wallets, third party model assurance, and rulebook friction sit at the center of that response.

See:  Google Signs EU AI Code Despite Competition Warnings

Canada is still discussing the national direction of AI while UK fintech industry is already laying out what has to change for AI to work inside live financial workflows. The lesson for Canada is straightforward. AI policy cannot move on its own. Open Finance, Digital ID, wallet policy, payments modernization, and data access frameworks need to move with it or adoption in regulated finance will stay limited.

There is also a market structure lesson. If agent led payments grow, whoever controls the interface between the agent, the wallet, and the payment rail can control distribution. Policymakers who want competition and innovation to hold need to keep that layer open.

Takeaway

The industry response to the Mills Review is not just a call for clearer AI rules. It argues that the next barrier sits outside the model. Data access, identity, payments, and regulatory clarity now decide whether AI in finance stays at the support layer or moves into execution. The firms and jurisdictions that solve those bottlenecks will have the advantage.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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Canada Tipping Backlash Payments UX Takes Heat

Mar 18, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Insight | Payments And Consumer Finance And Tax

AI image Tipping UX backlash

Tip Prompts Trigger Boycotts And Tax Confusion

On Mar 17 2026, H&R Block Canada revealed tipping survey results putting new numbers behind a growing consumer reaction to tip prompts at checkout. Two thirds of Canadians or 67% say Canada should abolish tipping culture. Another 93% say they feel annoyed when a card machine prompts for a tip in places where tipping was not previously expected, and 89% say tipping is out of hand and is applied to goods and services they do not think warrant tipping.

This backlash isn't just frustration.  It's now changing behaviour and pushing customers away.

  • H&R Block says 41% of Canadians avoid businesses they know will push tip prompts at checkout, including coffee shops, convenience stores, fast food, and self serve counters.
  • In 2025, 57% said they felt awkward skipping the tip prompt and tended to tip anyway. In 2026, 65% say they feel less awkward choosing no tip, and 67% say they increasingly choose the no tip option.
  • The survey reports 89% think tip percentages have become too high, and 79% say they enter a custom tip amount rather than using the suggested percentages where possible.

See:  Monzo Spend Recap Backlash Exposes Trust And Tone Risk

The survey also connects tipping culture to tax and compliance.

H&R Block’s 2025 survey found 84% of Canadians know tips are taxable income, but 47% assume people are not declaring all tips. The evolution from paying/receiving cash tips to digital tips changes how income shows up for tax purposes, especially when tips flow through employers and platform operators.

Digital tipping changes the paper trail. When tips move through a card terminal or POS system and the business pays them out through payroll, the tip can show up like other income on a paycheque, with deductions such as tax, EI, or CPP applied before the employee receives it and then reflected on tax slips. That is different from cash tips left on a table, where the worker has to track and report them. Gig work is different again. Even when an app collects tips and passes them on, gig workers are often treated as self employed, so they still have to report the full amount themselves at tax time.

Implications For Fintechs and Payment Operators

This is a payments design problem that's now hitting brand trust. The tip prompt is part of the checkout experience, and the checkout experience is increasingly built and configured through payment processors, point of sale providers, and embedded finance stacks. When consumers feel pressured, they blame the merchant, but they also blame the payment flow. The numbers show that tip prompts can create real revenue risk for merchants if 41% of customers are willing to avoid tip pushing businesses. 

For fintechs selling point of sale and payment tools, this is an opening to compete on trust and customer experience. Firms that give merchants better controls, clearer disclosure, and safer defaults can reduce backlash while still supporting gratuities where they make sense.

Read:  What Tax Smart Investing Can Teach Canadians About Building Real Wealth

Fintechs that serve gig platforms (or merchants) can help by making tip reporting clearer in worker dashboards and by separating tip flows in a way that matches how income is treated.

Merchants will tune tip prompts more carefully because customer resentment is measurable. Payment platforms will face more pressure to treat tip design as a trust issue, not a digital cash lever. Regulators and tax authorities will face more questions about consistency and clarity as tipping moves further into digital rails.

Talking Point

If 67% of Canadians want tipping abolished and 41% avoid tip pushing businesses, do payment platforms start competing on tip prompt design the same way they compete on fees and checkout conversion?


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Mar 7-13, 2026

March 13, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Intelligence | Artificial Intelligence And Data, Open Banking Open Finance And Data Sharing, Payments And Market Infrastructure, Regulation And Policy

Image Freepik, Data visualization signals

Image: Freepik

This live weekly NCFA intelligence page tracks financial technology developments that significantly affect how fintechs build, sell, raise capital, and operate under scrutiny. Coverage prioritizes Canada and includes global events that directly influence competitive conditions, market access, and execution realities across fintech sectors.  This page will be updated throughout the week with market movers in a live format and then each week we'll close the prior week's contents in prep for the upcoming week, and continue on a rolling basis.  (Missed prior week's Fintech Whisperer?  (December 6-12, 2025, December 13-19, 2025, January 1-9, 2026, January 10-16, 2026, January 17-23, 2026, January 24-30, 2026, January 31-February 6, 2026, February 7-13, 2026, February 14-20, 2026, February 21-27, 2026, February 28-March 6, 2026).

Weekly Fintech Market Intelligence Mar 7 - 13, 2026

AI Finance And Data Governance

EU Moves To Clarify How Platform And Data Rules Work Together

Mar 12, 2026, European Union
  • The European Commission and the European Data Protection Board publish consultation contributions on draft joint guidelines covering how the Digital Markets Act and GDPR interact.
  • The institutions say they received more than 100 submissions from SMEs, gatekeepers, consumer groups, academics, and other stakeholders.
  • The stated goal is to improve legal clarity and certainty while preserving the effectiveness of both frameworks.
  • Final joint guidelines are expected in the last quarter of 2026.

Regulators are aligning competition rules and data protection in a way that directly affects how AI systems access, process, and govern data. For fintechs and financial institutions building on platform infrastructure, data strategy, consent design, and compliance architecture are becoming tightly coupled decisions.

Big Tech Gatekeepers File Updated DMA Compliance Reports

Mar 9, 2026, European Union
  • The European Commission says Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta, and Microsoft submitted updated compliance reports under the Digital Markets Act. The gatekeepers also submitted updated independently audited reports on consumer profiling techniques.
  • The Commission says public versions of the updated compliance reports and non confidential summaries of the profiling reports will be made available through its DMA pages.
  • The Commission will now carry out a detailed analysis of the reports and assess whether the updated measures meet the goals of the relevant DMA obligations.

Large platforms, AI firms, fintechs, and financial institutions that depend on platform distribution, data access, identity layers, or app infrastructure face a more active compliance environment. Platform terms, profiling practices, interoperability rules, and access conditions can change through ongoing regulatory review. Firms with high dependency on a small number of gatekeepers face increased operating risk, while firms that diversify distribution, strengthen direct customer relationships, and build adaptable data and compliance architectures will be better positioned.

Payments And Market Infrastructure

FSB Chair Says Cross Border Payments Reform Still Falls Short On Execution

Mar 12, 2026, Global
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says the system remains far from the G20’s 2027 cross border payments targets.
  • He points to progress including wider ISO 20022 adoption, longer RTGS operating hours, and around 17 bilateral corridors created through fast payment system interlinking in Asia Pacific.
  • He also flags weak spots that still need action, including patchy Legal Entity Identifier adoption, limited reform of data privacy frameworks, and too little improvement for end users.

The next edge will come from firms that can operationalize data standards, identity rails, and compliance workflows across jurisdictions rather than wait for policy intent alone to close the gap.

Ericsson And Mastercard Link Wallet Infrastructure To Mastercard Move

Mar 12, 2026, Global
  • The collaboration integrates Ericsson’s fintech platform with Mastercard Move to help telecom service providers, banks, and fintechs expand digital wallet capabilities and launch new payment services.
  • Mastercard Move supports money movement across more than 200 countries and territories, connects more than 17 billion endpoints, and supports transactions in 150 currencies.
  • Ericsson’s fintech platform operates in 22 countries, serves more than 120 million active users, and processes more than 4 billion transactions each month across wallets, payments, remittances, lending, and loyalty services.
  • The rollout begins in the Middle East and Africa, where the release points to demand for mobile money, remittances, and interoperable payment services.

This deal says scale in cross border payments is moving toward platforms that already combine distribution, compliance support, and endpoint reach. For smaller wallet, remittance, and banking partners, the harder question is no longer whether they can connect. It is whether they still control enough of the customer relationship or economics once a larger stack sits in the middle.

Payments And Market Infrastructure

Ripple Moves To Add Australian Payments Licence

Mar 11, 2026, Australia
  • Ripple says it plans to secure an Australian Financial Services License through the proposed acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd.
  • The company says the licence would expand Ripple Payments in Australia and allow it to manage more of the payment flow directly.
  • The platform would cover onboarding, compliance, funding, FX, liquidity management, and final payout.
  • APAC payments volume nearly doubled year on year in 2025 and Ripple now holds more than 75 regulatory licences globally.

This brings Ripple inside the licensed payments system in Australia. It can handle more of the payment flow itself instead of relying on partners. That includes onboarding, compliance, FX, and payout. For banks and fintechs, this means a digital asset firm can now compete more directly on cross border payments with full regulatory coverage, not just as a crypto overlay.

Cred Gets RBI Payment Aggregator Authorization

Mar 11, 2026, India
  • Cred receives authorization from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as a payment aggregator.
  • The license permits Cred to onboard merchants and manage settlements and refunds.
  • 8.5 trillion rupees in payments and 15 million users in the fiscal year ending March 2025.

This impacts payment processors, merchant platforms, and consumer fintechs that want to own checkout and settlement. A payment aggregator license pulls merchant onboarding, refunds, and settlement into one accountable layer, so competitors and partners should expect tighter expectations on merchant screening and operational controls as volumes grow.

Government Of Canada Fixed Income Market Ecology II Government Of Canada Bond Dealing

Mar 10, 2026, Canada
  • Staff Analytical Paper 2026 11 by Petr Kocourek and Adrian Walton.
  • The abstract sets out how investment dealers intermediate trading, distribute Government of Canada securities, and provide liquidity across the yield curve.
  • The abstract highlights dealer risk management and funding practices, including interest rate hedging and the use of benchmark bonds and related derivatives.

This impacts fixed income platforms, treasury and collateral systems, and anyone building workflows that touch Government of Canada collateral. Dealer funding and hedging capacity affects liquidity and trading costs.

Digital Assets, Blockchain And Tokenization

Nasdaq Teams Up With Payward To Build Tokenization Infrastructure

Mar 9, 2026, United States
  • Nasdaq partners with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, to develop tokenization infrastructure.
  • The effort targets blockchain based equities and wider tokenization interest across deposits, stocks, bonds, funds, and real estate.
  • The partnership positions tokenized assets as a growth lane for trading and market access.

This impacts capital markets fintechs that want distribution through regulated channels. When a top tier exchange brand commits to a tokenization partner, procurement and diligence tighten fast. Builders should prepare for deeper questions on governance, surveillance, custody controls, and how tokenized assets move without breaking compliance reporting and investor protections.

Regulation And Policy

FCA Pushes Firms To Prove Customers Actually Understand Digital Journeys

Mar 13, 2026, United Kingdom
  • The FCA publishes good practice and areas for improvement on consumer understanding under the Consumer Duty.
  • The review says firms should use evidence such as call listening, complaints, chat transcripts, website analytics, drop off data, and surveys to identify where customers struggle.
  • The FCA also points to clearer language, better design, accessibility, and testing communications with real customers before rollout.
  • The work spans sectors including retail banking, consumer finance, payments, e money, and insurance.

This raises the execution standard for digital onboarding, disclosures, promotions, and support flows. For fintechs, good UX is no longer enough on its own. Firms need evidence that customers understand what they are seeing and can act on it without avoidable confusion.

Ottawa Locks In Affordability Push Across Taxes Housing And Banking

Mar 12, 2026, Canada
  • Bill C-4, the Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act, receives Royal Assent and brings key affordability measures into law.
  • The Department of Finance says the law lowers the first federal personal income tax rate from 15% to 14%, with tax relief for nearly 22 million Canadians and savings of up to $420 per person this year.
  • The same law also confirms the first time home buyers rebate, which removes GST on new homes up to $1 million and reduces GST on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million, with savings of up to $50,000.
  • On the same day, FCAC says new rules cap NSF fees at $10 (see below), block repeat NSF charges within 2 business days for the same personal deposit account, and ban NSF fees on overdrafts under $10.
  • This fits a broader consumer banking reset already under way. Since Dec 1, 2025, 14 federally regulated financial institutions, including Canada’s 6 largest banks, have offered modernized low cost and no cost accounts, with low cost accounts capped at $4 per month.

Ottawa is pushing affordability through multiple channels at once, including taxes, housing, and core banking fees. For banks, that puts more pressure on legacy fee revenue and raises the importance of better alerts, cash flow tools, and low cost account design. For fintechs, it strengthens the case for products that help users avoid failed payments, manage short term liquidity, and lower everyday banking friction.

Canada Caps NSF Fees At $10 As Consumer Banking Revenue Tightens

Mar 12, 2026, Canada
  • The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada says new rules now cap non sufficient funds fees at $10 for federally regulated banks.
  • The rules also stop banks from charging more than one NSF fee within 2 business days for the same personal deposit account and block NSF fees when the overdraft is under $10.
  • FCAC says NSF fees typically ranged from $45 to $48 before the change, which makes this a real cut to a high cost banking fee that often hit people already under pressure.
  • The new rule aligns with a broad affordability push, such as the modernized low cost and no cost account commitment, under which 14 federally regulated financial institutions, including Canada’s 6 largest banks, offer low cost accounts at no more than $4 per month starting Dec 1, 2025.

Banks lose part of a high margin penalty fee and face more pressure to compete on better alerts, balance visibility, payment controls, and products that help customers avoid failed payments in the first place. Direct product and revenue implications across consumer banking.

CFTC Opens Rulemaking On Prediction Markets

Mar 12, 2026, United States
  • The CFTC publishes an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets and opens a 45 day comment period.
  • The agency says the process will examine whether changes are needed to its event contract rules and how those rules apply to prediction markets.
  • The notice follows growing attention on event contracts tied to elections, sports, and other real world outcomes, where the line between hedging, speculation, and gaming remains contested.

This opens a formal rulemaking lane around one of the fastest growing grey areas in digital markets. It matters for exchanges, brokers, market makers, and fintech platforms.  How far regulated market structure will let them scale before they run into tighter product boundaries.

CIRO Updates Rules For Order Execution Only Platforms

Mar 12, 2026, Canada
  • CIRO issues new guidance on order execution only (OEO) account services and activities, replacing its previous OEO guidance, which reflects significant growth in the number of DIY investors using online brokerage platforms.
  • The revised guidance clarifies the boundary between prohibited recommendations and permitted decision support tools. The regulator says a prohibited recommendation now turns on whether the firm endorses a specific investment decision for a client.
  • CIRO adopts a principles based framework that allows OEO dealers to offer tools such as sample portfolios, asset allocation support, and filtering tools, provided clients remain responsible for their own investment decisions.

This guidance impacts how Canadian DIY investment platforms can design tools and user experiences. Online brokers and fintech wealth platforms now have clearer room to provide decision support, portfolio models, and guided interfaces, but they must build stronger safeguards to ensure those tools do not cross the line into regulated investment advice (a condition of the OEO regulatory exemption).

Bank Of Canada Research Tests The Price Of Public Payment Competition

Mar 10, 2026, Canada
  • Staff Working Paper 2026 10 evaluates competition between a welfare maximizing public payment platform and a profit maximizing private platform in a two sided payments market.
  • The model finds a public platform generally improves aggregate welfare and financial inclusion, but private platforms may respond by raising fees, which can leave merchants that stay on private networks worse off.
  • The results also show zero fee and cost recovery mandates can weaken those gains, depending on network effects, user switching, and how differentiated the platforms are.

Public payment rails can widen access, but they can also compress private platform economics and add pressure onto merchant pricing. For banks, fintechs, and payment providers, the real issue is not only whether public rails expand. It is how pricing design changes volume, margin, and who absorbs the cost.

Lending Consumer Credit And BNPL

Upstart Plans To Apply For A National Bank Charter

Mar 10, 2026, United States
  • Upstart plans to submit applications to establish an insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A., and to apply to become a bank holding company, subject to regulatory approvals.
  • The plan includes applications to the OCC and FDIC for the bank and to the Federal Reserve for bank holding company status.
  • The announcement names a proposed leadership structure for Upstart Bank, N.A.

A charter application signals a potential change in funding and balance sheet strategy for an AI lending platform and it can reshape partner economics for banks and credit unions that currently fund originations.

goeasy Flags Credit Deterioration And Covenant Pressure At LendCare

Mar 10, 2026, Canada
  • goeasy expects an incremental Q4 2025 charge off of about $178M tied to LendCare loans, against $5.5B of gross consumer loans receivable.
  • Total company net charge offs for the quarter are expected to be about $331M, with an expected $86M net increase in allowance for credit losses.
  • The company withdraws its previously issued Q4 2025 outlook and three year forecast and now expects its 2025 full year net charge off rate to be about 12.9%.
  • LendCare credit performance is now expected to push the annual net charge off rate into the mid teens in 2026 before declining in 2027 and onward.
  • The expected charge offs and provision increase are expected to put the company out of compliance with certain covenants under its syndicated credit facility, securitization facilities, and receivables purchase arrangements, although it says accommodation discussions are underway.

This is more than a weak quarter. It puts credit quality, funding resilience, and covenant headroom back at the center of the non prime lending story, which matters for alt lenders, securitization partners, credit investors, and fintechs selling underwriting, servicing, collections, and portfolio monitoring tools into the consumer lending stack.

Insurance And Insurtech

Aon Completes A Stablecoin Insurance Premium Payment Proof Of Concept

Mar 9, 2026, Ireland
  • Aon describes this as the first known stablecoin insurance premium payment among major global brokers, completed as a proof of concept using U.S. dollar backed stablecoins.
  • Premium payments settle for insurance programs tied to Coinbase and Paxos.
  • The transactions run across multiple blockchain networks, including USDC on Ethereum and PayPal USD on Solana.

This matters for brokers, carriers, and digital asset clients because premium payments are a treasury workflow. Once stablecoins clear premiums across real counterparties, buyers and carriers will ask harder questions about controls, reconciliation, and how funds move from premium collection to coverage without losing traceability.

Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

Eurosystem Publishes Appia Roadmap For Tokenised Finance

Mar 11, 2026, Europe
  • The European Central Bank's Eurosystem published the Appia roadmap to guide a European tokenised financial ecosystem with central bank money at its core.
  • Pontes, the Eurosystem’s DLT solution for central bank money settlement, is set to launch in the third quarter of 2026, while Appia is expected to conclude with a blueprint in 2028.
  • The roadmap covers tokenised wholesale financial markets, where issuance, trading, settlement, custody, and servicing can be integrated on DLT platforms.
  • The ECB says 64 market participants took part in more than 50 trials and experiments during the 2024 exploratory work that feeds into this strategy.

This roadmap puts Europe closer to a tokenised market structure built around central bank money rather than private settlement workarounds. It matters for banks, FMIs, tokenisation platforms, and securities infrastructure teams because the market is now moving from exploratory work toward live design choices on standards, networks, and governance.

Broadridge Connects Crypto.com To NYFIX For Global Crypto Order Routing

Mar 9, 2026, Hong Kong
  • Broadridge integrates Crypto.com with the NYFIX order routing network so market participants can route crypto orders through FIX based infrastructure already used across global financial markets.
  • The release describes this as NYFIX’s first cryptocurrency integration in Asia and says Crypto.com becomes Broadridge’s first cryptocurrency trading connection in Asia leveraging NYFIX.
  • The connectivity extends Crypto.com access to Broadridge’s global network of over 2,200 buy and sell side participants.

This opens a cleaner path for brokers and institutional desks that want crypto execution without rebuilding their stack around proprietary APIs. Once crypto routing uses the same FIX plumbing as other asset classes, firms will put more weight on consistent controls, audit trails, and operational readiness across both traditional and digital venues.

Conclusion

Payment networks are scaling distribution and wallet reach. Tokenized market structure is moving closer to institutional use. Canada’s NSF fee cap also cuts into a legacy bank revenue line and raises the value of tools that help customers avoid failed payments. The strongest fintechs and financial institutions are combining regulatory discipline, strong rails, and practical financial workflows that reduce friction for users.

NCFA offers various curated resources to help founders and investors stay current on developments that impact fintech markets, subscribe to NCFA weekly newsletter updates, view a rundown of current fintech news and insights, or dive into the latest fintech industry research.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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ECB Sets A Roadmap For Tokenized Finance Infrastructure

March 11, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Insight | Capital Markets Infrastructure

Tokenization market infrastructure

ECB Maps Out How Tokenized Wholesale Markets May Settle In Central Bank Money

On March 11 2026, the European Central Bank released the Appia roadmap for Europe’s tokenised finance. The plan runs through 2028 and sets out how the Eurosystem will explore tokenized wholesale financial markets while keeping central bank money at the center of settlement. The ECB says Pontes, a near term interoperability layer, is expected to launch in the third quarter of 2026, while Appia will guide the longer term design of a more integrated tokenized financial ecosystem. While Europe is still studying the final model, the roadmap highlights that ECB is treating tokenization as a market infrastructure question.

What The ECB Is Exploring

The ECB is working in two stages. Pontes is the near term step. The Eurosystem’s DLT settlement page says Pontes is designed to connect distributed ledger platforms to existing Eurosystem settlement services so euro transactions on those platforms can settle in central bank money. The ECB has said Pontes is expected to launch in Q3 2026.

Appia is the longer term view. The ECB says it will explore how a broader tokenized financial ecosystem could develop over time, including questions around architecture, governance, standards, and integration. In other words, Pontes is addressing immediate settlement demand, while Appia looks at where wholesale tokenized finance may go next.

This Is About Wholesale CBDC, Not Consumer Digital Cash

The roadmap focuses on wholesale financial markets, not everyday consumer payments. The money used in these systems would move between regulated financial institutions such as banks, central counterparties, and settlement providers.

This is an important distinction because retail CBDC proposals raise questions about public accounts, privacy, and how people use digital money day to day. The ECB roadmap is different. It is about how tokenized securities, deposits, and other financial assets could settle safely between institutions using tokenized central bank money.

See:  FCA Stablecoin Sprint Puts Payment Models Under Review

It's a wholesale CBDC model that moves central bank money on distributed ledger infrastructure. The goal is to modernize market infrastructure, not replace cash or consumer bank accounts.

Why Central Bank Money Matters In Tokenized Markets

Tokenization allows financial instruments such as bonds, funds, deposits, and collateral to exist as programmable digital representations on distributed ledgers. That can reduce reconciliation steps and shorten settlement chains. But tokenized markets still need a settlement asset that participants trust.

The ECB is making clear that it wants central bank money to remain that anchor. That is a big difference from models that rely mainly on private stablecoins or commercial bank liabilities. Central bank money carries the lowest credit risk in the system because it is a direct claim on the central bank itself.

The ECB’s Appia overview says the initiative is the cornerstone of the Eurosystem strategy to provide central bank money within tokenized wholesale financial markets. It also says tokenized central bank money under Appia would go beyond the interoperability model delivered by Pontes and would be more integrated into a wider new financial ecosystem.

Europe Is Not Moving Alone

Europe is entering a wider global race around tokenized market infrastructure. The BIS Project Agorá is exploring how tokenized commercial bank money and tokenized wholesale central bank money could work together on a common digital payments platform. The BIS says that work is aimed at improving cross border payments while keeping central banks at the core of final settlement.

Hong Kong is also moving quickly. The HKMA’s November 2025 Project Ensemble update says its pilot environment will be progressively enhanced through 2026 to support settlement in tokenized central bank money on a 24/7 basis (see Standard Chartered CEO Backs Tokenized Finance in Hong Kong). The HKMA has also used tokenized bond issuance, including HK$800M in tokenised green bonds in 2023 and about HK$6B in 2024.

That means the ECB is joining a growing group of major institutions that now see tokenized settlement as a serious part of future market design.

What This Means For Canada

As NCFA recently noted in its analysis of how tokenized infrastructure is changing market operations, Canada has already taken early steps through stablecoin policy work, open banking progress without a confirmed implementation date, and payment modernization efforts. But the foundations for tokenized markets are still incomplete. Canada’s Real Time Rail is not yet live and is expected after 2026. Canada also still needs clearer legal recognition of digital ledger registers for securities, stronger real time settlement across institutions, and digital identity standards that work across ledgers while supporting KYC and AML requirements.

See:  Canada Pauses CBDC Plans, Australia Advances Wholesale Focus

Canada has strong institutions and credible capital markets, but it doesn't yet appear to have a public multi year wholesale tokenized settlement roadmap comparable to Appia. If other jurisdictions define the standards and operating models first, Canadian firms may end up adapting to systems built eleswhere.

Conclusion

Pontes is expected in 2026. Appia runs through 2028. Those dates don't automatically mean Europe has committed to one final settlement model today. However they do mean that a major central bank is now putting dates, structure, and policy intent around tokenized wholesale finance market infrastructure.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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NCFA Weekly Fintech Intelligence Feb 28-Mar 6, 2026

March 6, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Whisperer Weekly Intelligence | Artificial Intelligence And Data, Digital Assets Blockchain And Tokenization, Regulation And Policy, Lending Consumer Credit And BNPL, Sustainable Finance And ESG

Image Freepik, Data visualization signals

Image: Freepik

This live weekly NCFA intelligence page tracks financial technology developments that significantly affect how fintechs build, sell, raise capital, and operate under scrutiny. Coverage prioritizes Canada and includes global events that directly influence competitive conditions, market access, and execution realities across fintech sectors.  This page will be updated throughout the week with market movers in a live format and then each week we'll close the prior week's contents in prep for the upcoming week, and continue on a rolling basis.  (Missed prior week's Fintech Whisperer?  (December 6-12, 2025, December 13-19, 2025, January 1-9, 2026, January 10-16, 2026, January 17-23, 2026, January 24-30, 2026, January 31-February 6, 2026, February 7-13, 2026, February 14-20, 2026, February 21-27, 2026).

Weekly Fintech Market Intelligence Feb 28 - Mar 6, 2026

Artificial Intelligence And Data

Stripe Turns AI Token Costs Into A Built In Billing Layer

Mar 2, 2026, United States
  • Stripe launches billing for LLM tokens in private preview and labels the feature experimental.
  • The product lets companies bill for LLM token usage without managing model pricing complexity, set a markup, pick models, and route calls through Stripe’s AI gateway or supported partners.  This is a cost recovery feature by passing costs onto customers automatically.
  • Stripe says it syncs popular model prices, configures usage based billing for the chosen margin, and records usage automatically.
  • The documentation gives a simple example of a consistent 30% margin over raw LLM token costs across providers.

This is for AI first fintechs, SaaS platforms, and builders selling usage heavy products because AI cost recovery is moving out of finance spreadsheets and into the billing stack itself. This means markup, model pricing, and token usage can all be baked directly into a single workflow.

Regulation and Policy

FCA Opens CP26 8 With Crypto Client Asset And Market Rule Changes

Mar 6, 2026, United Kingdom
  • CP26 8 opens on March 6, 2026 as the FCA’s quarterly Handbook consultation, with feedback deadlines that run from March 23 to April 20, depending on the chapter.
  • The FCA proposes consequential amendments to CASS 1, 7 and 8 so the client asset rules work for cryptoasset activities and the wider new crypto regime.
  • The FCA proposes changes that rehouse some equity transparency provisions into MAR 11A, proposes a new MAR 1A and related changes on rights of action, and proposes an additional CFI code for overnight interest swaps under MAR 11 Annex 1.
  • The paper also includes proposals touching the new Public Offers and Admissions to Trading regime, UK EMIR commodity clearing thresholds, and other Handbook updates listed in CP26 8.

This affects crypto custody, brokerage, and compliance tooling teams, plus firms that run secondary market controls, because it pushes more of the crypto perimeter into client asset rule design while tightening where firms must look for core market mechanics requirements.

FCA Sets Implementation Window For Motor Finance Redress

Mar 4, 2026, United Kingdom
  • Motor finance redress?  FCA proposal for customers who were not properly told about commission arrangements in car finance, including discretionary commission arrangements that were banned in 2021, as set out in its car finance claims guidance.
  • The FCA says it is considering over 1,000 responses on a motor finance compensation scheme and expects to publish final rules in late March, outside market hours, with the date confirmed in advance.
  • If the scheme proceeds, millions could receive compensation, and the FCA says it is likely to introduce an implementation period of 3 months, with up to 5 months for older agreements, and firms could choose to process claims sooner.
  • The FCA outlines process changes that remove an opt out step for people who complain before the scheme starts, allow consumers to accept a redress offer immediately, and allow a range of communication channels with safeguards rather than recorded delivery.
  • Over 800 misleading adverts have been removed or amended since January 2024 and it has intervened with 5 claims management companies causing harm.

This changes the operating timetable for lenders, brokers, and claims handling firms, and it pulls more pressure onto complaint intake, identity checks, fraud controls, and customer communications. Fintechs offering claims workflow solutions, onboarding checks, and redress automation now need to map product readiness to the late March rules and the 3 to 5 month build window.

Canada And India Open A New Finance And Payments Dialogue

Mar 2, 2026, Canada and India
  • The joint statement welcomes the launch of the Finance Ministers’ Economic and Financial Dialogue.
  • The file covers payments modernization, financial stability, fintech innovation, and capital markets development.
  • An early priority is collaboration on the future of instant payments, with opportunities in cross border remittances and merchant payments.
  • The statement says NPCI and Payments Canada would be invited to participate.

This opens an official lane that matters for remittance firms, merchant payments providers, instant payments infrastructure teams, and institutions building Canada India payment flows. Once payment system operators are invited into the file, the discussion moves closer to real operating design, not just diplomacy.

FCA Opens The Authorisation Gateway For Targeted Support

Mar 2, 2026, United Kingdom
  • Firms can now apply for permission to provide targeted support.  Firms can now apply for permission to give more tailored help than generic guidance.
  • The FCA says the new rules take effect on April 6, 2026 and will let authorised firms provide suggestions for groups of consumers with common characteristics across pensions and investments, without moving all the way into full individual advice.
  • The FCA estimates around 23 million consumers are currently underserved by the markets for advice and guidance.

This opens a new regulated advice lane between generic guidance and individual advice. It affects banks, pension providers, wealth platforms, and fintechs building support flows, because firms now have a near term path to turn customer guidance into a permissioned product with real conduct and authorisation consequences.

Capital Markets And Market Infrastructure

Bank Of Canada Completes Tokenized Bond Issuance And Settlement Trial

Mar 5, 2026, Canada
  • Bank of Canada, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Investor Services, TD Bank Group, and Export Development Canada complete Project Samara to test how tokenization and distributed ledger technology can improve bond issuance and settlement in a real world setting.
  • EDC issues Canada’s first tokenized bond using distributed ledger technology, with payments settled in wholesale central bank deposits, and the bond is sold and traded and managed through its life cycle on the Samara Platform.
  • The experiment issues a single $100 million Canadian dollar bond of less than 3 months to a closed investor group.
  • The Samara Platform runs end to end bond life cycle steps on distributed ledger technology, including issuance, bidding, coupon payment, redemption, and secondary trading, and it integrates separate bond and cash ledgers on Hyperledger Fabric.
  • CIRO summarizes the same InnovateSafe test as a tokenized bond test and summarizes it through the dealer and market integrity lens.

This is important for issuers, dealers, custodians, and market infrastructure teams because a central bank backed trial now shows how tokenized bonds and central bank settlement money can run through an on chain workflow, which raises expectations on governance, auditability, and integration before this model can scale beyond pilots.

ICE Invests In OKX And Plans U.S. Regulated Crypto Futures

Mar 5, 2026, United States
  • Intercontinental Exchange announces an investment in OKX that reflects a valuation of $25B.
  • ICE plans to license OKX spot crypto prices and launch U.S. regulated futures.
  • OKX plans to provide access to ICE’s U.S. futures and NYSE tokenized equities markets to its customer base of 120M accounts.
  • The release outlines a joint venture to bring OKX and ICE operated markets to U.S. based customers.

A major exchange operator is tying its regulated futures roadmap to crypto spot reference prices while pushing tokenized equities distribution through a large crypto customer base.

BOJ Expands Live Work On Blockchain Settlement And Tokenized Central Bank Money

Mar 3, 2026, Japan
  • The Bank of Japan says blockchain has entered the implementation phase across a wide range of financial services.
  • The retail CBDC pilot remains underway, and the Bank will reorganize the CBDC Forum to consider the future of payments from a broader perspective.
  • Project Agorá is exploring a mechanism that would enable central banks, including the BOJ, to issue central bank money as tokenized deposits on the blockchain for cross-border payments between banks.
  • A BOJ sandbox project is underway to test settlement using central bank money on blockchains, with use cases including domestic interbank settlement and securities settlement.
  • Insights from these projects will be used to improve BOJ NET.

This is for banks, payment infrastructure firms, tokenization platforms, and securities settlement providers. The BOJ is linking blockchain, tokenized central bank money, and core settlement design to active pilots, sandbox work, and future upgrades to BOJ NET, which raises the bar for how seriously the market should treat settlement infrastructure moving on chain.

Cybersecurity Fraud And Financial Crime

FinCEN Imposes Record $80M AML Penalty On Canaccord Genuity

Mar 6, 2026, United States
  • FinCEN assesses an USD $80,000,000 civil money penalty against Canaccord Genuity LLC for willful Bank Secrecy Act violations and calls it the largest penalty ever imposed against a broker dealer for BSA violations.
  • Failures in AML program effectiveness, risk based customer due diligence, and internal controls used to monitor transactions for suspicious activity.
  • Failures include not filing at least 160 suspicious activity reports tied to dozens of over the counter securities and a high volume of underlying suspicious transactions it estimates to be in the thousands.
  • The resolution includes an admission that Canaccord willfully violated the BSA, including failures tied to an effective AML program, due diligence on correspondent accounts for foreign financial institutions, and SAR filing.

This raises the enforcement baseline for broker dealers and their vendors. If you create or sell onboarding, surveillance, AML, or case management tooling, expect more pressure to prove risk based controls, faster SAR decisioning, and audit ready evidence because regulators are treating gaps in thinly traded securities monitoring as a serious control failure.

Public Sector Policy And Industrial Strategy

Canada And Australia Link AI Safety, Cybercrime, And Defence Procurement

Mar 5, 2026, Canada and Australia
  • Canada welcomes Australia into the Critical Minerals Production Alliance launched under Canada’s G7 Presidency in 2025.
  • Training of Canadian Armed Forces personnel on the Arctic Over the Horizon Radar system begins in Australia in mid 2026 as part of NORAD modernisation.
  • The leaders welcome a Memorandum of Understanding on AI Safety between Canada and Australia’s AI safety institutes to share expertise.
  • Canada and Australia intensify coordination to tackle criminal networks, smuggling, foreign intelligence manipulation, and cybercrimes.

This is a positive announcement for fintech vendors that sell to government, defence, banks, and critical infrastructure. AI evaluation, cybercrime response, and resilience checks start to converge across buyers.

Canada And Australia Put Pension Capital And Tax Treaty Modernisation On The Table

Mar 5, 2026, Canada and Australia
  • The leaders welcome growing collaboration between Canadian pension funds and Australian superannuation funds and tie it to Canada’s mission to unleash $1 trillion in investment over the next five years.
  • The readout highlights progress toward modernising the Canada Australia Tax Treaty and announces new formalised ministerial level economic talks focused on investment, regulatory alignment, and economic security.
  • The leaders discuss facilitating joint investment in nation building projects and extend an invite for Australian superannuation funds to visit Canada this year to advance those efforts.

As Canada and Australia open the door to more pension investment, investors will want simple, auditable reporting and quick due diligence, especially for payments, AI, and critical supply chain projects.

Payments, Money Movement, and Cross Border FX

Court Orders Tariff Refund Path While CBP Seeks 45 Days To Implement

Mar 6, 2026, United States
  • The Court of International Trade issued a March 4, 2026 order on the tariff refund dispute.
  • CBP tells the court it needs 45 days to stand up a refund process, with refunds handled electronically and rejected if importers do not complete electronic setup.
  • Reporting on the filing describes the scale as about $166B in IEEPA tariff deposits across more than 53 million entries from about 330,000 importers, with 21,423 set up for electronic refunds out of about 330,566 eligible importers as of Feb 6.

This delay ties up cash for importers and their banks. When refunds take weeks to process, treasury teams need tighter visibility into duty exposure, eligibility tracking, and cash forecasting, and that opens room for fintech tools that automate reconciliation and working capital decisions created by policy whiplash.

Pagos Pushes Payments Data Into AI Ready Operations

Mar 4, 2026, United States
  • Pagos launches a payments data platform designed to give enterprise merchants one enriched data foundation for analytics, optimization, and agentic workflows.
  • The release says the platform has ingested more than 16 billion transaction events and represents more than $1.3T in transaction volume, and an MCP server that lets large language models query harmonized payments data directly in natural language.
  • The platform covers conversion, transactions, payment verifications, chargebacks, refunds, fraud, and cost data, with drill down to the transaction level.

This could impact how payments teams operate. If merchants can query verified payments events in natural language and automate workflows on top of unified data, AI payments will run the operating layer for routing, fraud, disputes, and cost control, which raises expectations on data quality, lineage, and accountability across the payments stack.

Kansas City Fed Approves Limited Account For Kraken Financial

Mar 4, 2026, United States
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved a limited purpose account for Wyoming based Payward Financial, doing business as Kraken Financial.
  • The approval was issued under the Federal Reserve Board’s Account Access Guidelines.
  • The Kansas City Fed says Kraken Financial is a Tier 3 entity.
  • The account has an initial one year term with restrictions and limitations tailored to Kraken Financial’s business model and risk profile.

The Fed is opening a controlled access point for a crypto linked institution inside the U.S. payments system. That sets a live precedent for how non bank and digital asset firms may be handled under account access rules, even where service scope stays tightly constrained.

SoFi And Mastercard Bring SoFiUSD Into Network Settlement

Mar 3, 2026, United States
  • SoFiUSD becomes a settlement option across Mastercard’s global payments network.
  • The work covers card based settlement for issuers and acquirers, with use cases that include cross border remittances and B2B money transfers.
  • SoFi Bank, N.A. is expected to settle its own credit and debit transactions in SoFiUSD, and Galileo is expected to offer card clients and issuing banks the choice to settle transactions in SoFiUSD.
  • The Mastercard Multi-Token Network is expected to support SoFiUSD and expand interoperability across fiat currencies, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits.

This for issuers, acquirers, sponsor banks, card fintechs, and treasury teams because stablecoins are moving closer to core network settlement, not just crypto side rails. Once a global card network starts wiring a bank issued stablecoin into settlement flow, teams need a clearer view on treasury design, reconciliation, network rules, and what faster money movement looks like in practice.

Visa And Bridge Expand Stablecoin Linked Cards And Onchain Settlement

Mar 3, 2026, United States
  • Visa and Bridge (acquired by Stripe) expand their card issuance product so Bridge enabled stablecoin linked cards are live in 18 countries, with planned expansion to more than 100 countries across Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East by year end.
  • Through Bridge’s partnership with Lead Bank, these card transactions can now be settled onchain with Visa.
  • Consumers can make purchases from stablecoin balances at Visa’s 175M plus merchant locations.
  • Visa’s stablecoin settlement pilot is now being used to evaluate settlement optionality for issuers and program managers, onchain reconciliation gains, and the role of infrastructure platforms in simplifying blockchain interactions for institutions.

This pushes stablecoins deeper into everyday card economics, not just niche crypto wallets. It matters for issuers, program managers, fintech developers, and infrastructure teams because card issuance, settlement, and reconciliation are starting to move into the same onchain operating stack at global scale.

Sustainable Finance And ESG

MAS Sets Transition Planning Expectations For Financial Institutions

March 5, 2026, Singapore
  • MAS issued separate environmental risk transition planning guidelines for banks, insurers and asset managers, effective September 2027 following an 18 month implementation period.
  • Institutions are expected to assess physical and transition risks and incorporate them into business models, governance and forward looking risk management practices.
  • MAS expects institutions to engage customers and investee companies based on risk materiality instead of indiscriminately withdrawing credit, insurance coverage or investment.

Singapore is placing climate transition planning inside supervised financial risk management rather than limiting it to public reporting. The approach gives Canadian regulators and institutions a comparator for connecting climate data, portfolio decisions, customer engagement and governance while avoiding blunt exclusions that could restrict financing without reducing underlying risk.

Conclusion

Core financial infrastructure continues to move closer to programmable systems while regulators tighten the rules around how firms operate and protect customers. Stablecoins are entering card settlement, tokenized bonds are moving through central bank backed pilots, and AI usage is starting to show up directly inside billing and payments operations. At the same time, regulators are opening new product lanes and expanding oversight of crypto custody, advice models, and consumer finance practices. NCFA offers various curated resources to help founders and investors stay current on developments that impact fintech markets, subscribe to NCFA weekly newsletter updates, view a rundown of current fintech news and insights, or dive into the latest fintech industry research.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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AI Usage Data Shows Early Labour Market Strain

Mar 5, 2026 | NCFA Market Insight | AI And The Future Of Work

Anthropic paper on AI Impact on Labour Market March 2026

Image: Labour market impacts of AI: New measure, early evidence (Anthropic Mar 2026)

Early Signs Of AI Changing Knowledge Work Hiring

On March 5 2026, new Anthropic artificial intelligence labour market impact research | download 17 page PDF offers a more grounded way to think about AI and jobs. Most AI labour studies ask what large language models could do in theory. This one asks what workers actually do with AI now. That sounds like a small change, but it matters. Financial institutions, fintechs, and policymakers need to know where real workflow change starts, not just where capability headlines point.

The paper introduces a new measure called observed exposure. It combines occupational task data, Claude usage data, and earlier research on which tasks language models can theoretically handle. The approach tries to separate technical possibility from real use. That makes this study potentially more useful than other broad forecasts about AI replacing jobs. To be clear, at this point the research doesn't claim mass displacement has arrived. It looks instead for early pressure points that may show up before unemployment spikes.

Why This Research Matters

This report matters because it focuses on real work patterns. The authors use the US O*NET task database, Anthropic Economic Index usage data, and earlier task level exposure estimates to build their measure. They also give more weight to automated and work related uses than to lighter forms of assistance. That helps the study track where AI starts to move from drafting help into actual production work.

See:  Why AI Investment Is Missing What Workers Actually Want

That said, the research has real limits, and those limits matter. The usage data comes from Claude, not from the full AI economy. A bank using Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, or internal tools may show a different pattern. The measure also tracks task exposure, not direct job loss. And the authors make clear that adoption still lags capability because of legal controls, software requirements, human review, and workflow friction. That caution strengthens the paper rather than weakening it. It keeps the analysis honest.

AI Can Do More Than Workers Use Today

The most striking findings is the size of the gap between capability and real usage. In STEM (ie. computer and math) occupations, earlier work suggests language models could theoretically touch 94% of tasks. Anthropic’s observed measure puts current Claude coverage in that category at just 33%. In other words, the technology frontier sits much further ahead than the adoption frontier.

That gap matters for fintech and finance because it points to where the real bottleneck sits. The next productivity jump might not come from a bigger, better, faster or smarter model alone. It might come from firms that redesign workflows, tighten controls, connect tools to internal systems, and build trust in output quality. Which operators can close the adoption gap faster than peers.

Programming At The Front Of The Curve

The report finds that computer programmers rank as the most exposed occupation, with 74.5% coverage. Customer service representatives follow at 70.1%, and data entry keyers come next at 67.1%. Digital, repeatable, text heavy work moves first.

See:  Fintech Fridays EP55: Global Hiring Trends: How Gen Z Talent Thrives

What stands out for NCFA readers is that this isn't just software engineers. Financial analysts are also among the most exposed occupations in the paper’s wider discussion. That should get the attention of banks, insurers, wealth platforms, lenders, and compliance teams. A lot of value in finance comes from summarizing information, checking documents, explaining options, processing forms, and moving data from one system to another. Those are exactly the kinds of tasks that AI enters early.

Higher Paid Knowledge Work Feels The Pressure First

Workers in the most exposed occupations earn 47% more on average than workers in the unexposed group. People with graduate degrees make up 17.4% of the most exposed group, compared with 4.5% of the unexposed group.

Early pressure is showing up in better paid, more educated, office based roles. In practice, that means AI may alter the work of analysts, developers, researchers, service teams, and operations professionals before it touches many frontline physical jobs. For financial institutions, this points to a management challenge as much as a technology one. Firms need to rethink role design, supervision, training, and quality control inside knowledge work functions.

Younger Workers Show The Earliest Cracks

The research does not find a growing rise in unemployment for workers in the most exposed occupations since late 2022. That is an important result because it pushes back on louder claims that AI already causes wide labour market damage.

But the report does find an early warning sign. For workers aged 22 to 25, job finding rates into highly exposed occupations fall by about 14% compared with 2022 levels. The authors stress that this result is only barely statistically significant and open to other interpretations.  So something to watch and track.

This is how labour market change often starts. Not with mass layoffs. Not with an obvious cliff. It starts when firms stop hiring as many junior people because AI now handles part of the routine work those hires once learned on. That's important for banking, fintech, consulting, and other white collar sectors that depend on apprenticeship style career ladders. If entry points narrow, firms may save money in the short run while weakening their future talent pipeline.

What Fintech And Financial Institutions Should Watch

Firms should watch three things closely to better anticipate where the real gap may open between leaders and laggards:

  1. Where routine document and analysis work starts to compress
  2. Whether junior hiring weakens in functions that already rely on digital knowledge work
  3. Which institutions move beyond pilots and actually rebuild operating processes around AI

See:  Why Fintechs Are Rebuilding How They Measure Work

For fintech builders, the market needs tools that help institutions safely plug AI into live work. Audit trails, review controls, workflow routing, structured data extraction, policy checking, and role based permissions.  Companies that solve those problems help close the distance between AI capability and actual business use and adoption.

In Conclusion

Anthropic’s research is quite useful because it shows where real adoption starts, where the biggest gaps remain, and where the cracks may start to appear and proliferate.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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Open letter to the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister responsible for Statistics Canada

March 5, 2026 | NCFA Advocacy | Data Governance

Data, statistics, governance

Sent by email:

Dear Minister

Power of Data
We (the undersigned – data driven tech and policy experts) very much support the letter of 4 Feb 2026 to you from CCPA – https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/open-letter-to-the-honourable-melanie-joly-minister-responsible-for-statistics-canada/.

We add to that letter the following points:
1. At a time when we need more data, not less, to support evidence-based decision making and community engagement in Canada, the staffing and other cuts already started at StatsCan are misguided. Even if the cuts will “have a ‘low’ or ‘limited’ impact on existing service levels” (a position which is contestable), we echo concerns about the long-term impact on data collection, statistical reliability, and public trust in government institutions.

We ask StatsCan to outline how core programs, release schedules, and quality standards will be maintained. How do we reconcile the cuts with the Digital Research Infrastructure Strategy - https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/ised/en/programs-and-initiatives/digital-research-infrastructure? Clarifying how “modernization” will offset reductions would strengthen confidence in the transition.

2. Our need for data is magnified by the attacks on data collection in the US, keeping in mind that in the past we have relied on much of that data. The attacks show how quickly statistical capacity can erode and how difficult it is to rebuild.

3. StatsCan plays an important coordinating role in maintaining statistical standards. Although StatsCan is not necessarily the body that should be collecting all the data we need in Canada, we suggest that StatsCan should be the body to oversee an inventory of what Canada does collect (or should be collecting) and to consult on and publish best practices for collection and governance. However, the cuts will clearly constrain an expanded governance role for StatsCan for the foreseeable future.

To provide some examples of data that is sorely needed:

(a) commercialization from Canadian universities, along the lines of the UKRI spinout registry (https://www.ukri.org/news/world-leading-register-of-uk-university-spin-outs-published); *

(b) data on emerging tech commercialization for defence (https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2024-dual-use-technologies-report-baldwin-051-esc and https://www.cigionline.org/publications/intellectual-property-is-economic-and-national-security/); and

(c) data on the outcomes of research spending.

4. Under the World Bank’s Statistical Performance Indicators, Canada’s statistical system ranks highly – https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/statistical-performance-indicators. While we do not doubt that reform of StatsCan is needed in an increasingly tech-driven economy, wholesale cuts are not the way to do it. Expertise will be lost, collaborative connections across organizations will be lost, mistakes will be made, there will be loss of morale, and direct costs of “redundancy” will be high, when strong statistical capacity is even more essential to support productivity and competitiveness.

5. The timing could not be worse. We are facing enormous challenges, and Canada’s need for reliable data is increasing as the economy evolves. To provide but one example, Canada is increasing defence spending under a new defence industrial strategy and engaging in “nation-building” projects. As noted in the Institute for Research in Public Policy report (https://irpp.org/research-studies/how-industrial-policy-can-strengthen-canada/), these projects must be “accompanied by rigorous evaluation and good governance practices” which can only be effective when Canadian institutions, including StatsCan, collect high quality data and use it to connect action to outcomes.

6. Rebuild or shred? (‘The Doom Loop’ and the future of the global order – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ULm87aidxM). This is a moment for careful planning to ensure institutional capacity is preserved and to plan for rebuilding, not shredding.

Respectfully

Signed
Kyle Briggs - https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-briggs/
David Durand – https://www.linkedin.com/in/daviddurandavocat/
Craig Asano, CEO National Crowdfunding & Fintech Assn of Canada - https://ncfacanada.org/
Robin Ford, Robin Ford Consulting - https://www.linkedin.com/in/robinericaford/
Peter Morand, Past President of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
Patrick Leblond, CN-Paul M. Tellier Chair on Business and Public Policy, University of Ottawa
José Carlos Marques, Associate Professor, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa

* While Canada invests billions in research, we translate very little of the value created into long-term economic and social benefit for Canadians. StatsCan recently attempted to survey Canadian universities on their commercialization activities but was unsuccessful. StatsCan removed the report from the website following complaints that the data was incomplete.

In contrast, the UK recently created a “spin-out register” of all startups commercializing IP created during publicly funded research (https://www.ukri.org/blog/university-spin-out-register-a-step-change-in-insights-for-all/). This register is already providing valuable insights that are helping UK policy makers make better funding decisions.

Canada’s world-class research institutions could contribute far more to Canada’s economy and economic security (https://www.cigionline.org/publications/intellectual-property-is-economic-and-national-security/), but without high-quality data, we struggle to identify and fix the problems.


NCFA Jan 2018 resizeThe National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org

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