Karsten Wenzlaff, Advisor
August 26th, 2025
February 20, 2026 | NCFA Market Activity | Policy and Regulation

On February 20 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling found President Trump overstepped authority when invoking emergency powers to impose tariffs, delivering a 6 to 3 decision that impacts trade policy expectations across North America.
The ruling removes one of the most aggressive tariff pathways by confirming that emergency powers cannot serve as a broad trade policy tool. However, other legal authorities remain available, meaning tariff risk does not disappear. Policymakers in Ottawa have already begun reviewing the decision’s implications as cross border supply chains remain exposed to policy shifts.
Canada has already experienced tariff volatility during earlier policy cycles. April 2025 tariff impacts on Canadian businesses highlights how sudden trade actions disrupted pricing, inventory planning, and SME financing decisions. Separate analysis of Canada’s tariff trade tensions and economic spillovers shows how cross border friction affects supply chains and investment confidence even when exemptions exist.
The latest ruling may remove one legal foundation for tariffs, but uncertainty remains as governments retain alternative tools. For Canadian exporters and importers, planning risk continues to dominate strategic decision making.
Recent trade data reflects tariff driven disruption across the Canada United States corridor. Statistics Canada indicators show softening export volumes and declining imports during escalation periods, spotlighting how policy uncertainty can translate into pricing pressure, inventory swings, and capital allocation challenges for businesses operating internationally.
If tariff policy remains unpredictable despite judicial limits, will exporters accelerate adoption of embedded treasury, automated FX, and digital trade finance tools as core resilience infrastructure?
Tariffs apply to goods, yet financial effects surface across payments, FX settlement, and liquidity management. Companies facing trade uncertainty typically increase hedging activity, rely more heavily on short term working capital, and demand faster reconciliation to manage cash exposure.
The Supreme Court decision restores an important legal boundary but doesn't end tariff uncertainty. Political pressure around industrial policy and trade protection remains elevated, suggesting continued volatility in cross border commerce.
For Canada’s fintech ecosystem, the news may strengthens the role of fintech platforms focused on cross border payments, FX automation, trade finance digitization, and SME liquidity tools. Firms that help businesses forecast cash flow, manage currency risk, and access capital faster become operational buffers against geopolitical volatility.
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The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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February 20, 2026

Image: Freepik/DC Studio
Along with the rest of the world, Canada's citizens are facing new cybersecurity threats. This can make it hard to feel confident online. The real-world result can lead to financial loss, sensitive data being available to all, and a wider impact on the economy.
Here are some of the issues you could encounter, as well as measures to protect yourself.
One of the newest types of issues is AI-powered scams, or deepfakes. Criminals use AI to create personalized social engineering attacks. This could be in the form of fake videos of celebrities "talking" to you or as a romance scam.
Always verify the person you are speaking to independently, especially if they ask for money or passwords. Remember, celebrities will never do this, so it is an immediate red flag.
Check any videos carefully. If you watch, you will be able to spot weird movements that break the AI illusion, such as words not matching with mouth movements.
Malicious websites are selling compromised credentials such as passwords, user logins and personal information, which can lead to account takeovers.
Avoid your accounts being at risk by manually requesting removal from major broker sites. There are legitimate companies you can pay to do this, as it is time-consuming.
Try to practise good online hygiene. Make sure you have strong passwords that you change regularly. Do not open strange emails, as they could be links to harvest your data. Importantly, if you do think someone has information they shouldn’t, report it to the relevant body in Canada.
As a small to medium-sized business owner, your company is important to your personal life. You may notice that your business is targeted by scammers to gain access to secure networks. This puts any personal data in your care at risk.
Implement rigorous vendor risk management, as well as mapping the supply chain for any vulnerabilities. Make it part of your policy to conduct regular manual checks as well as employ software to monitor your network continuously.
Ransomware remains the top cybersecurity threat. It works by infiltrating your systems and network, rendering your data inaccessible. This enables fewer technical criminals to launch attacks against both individuals and businesses.
Make sure you have system backups offline and regularly check for and apply security patches to all systems. Consider using a VPN free to encrypt your data, making it harder for criminals to access and read.
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Feb 18, 2026 | NCFA Fintech Market Activity | Payments and Cybersecurity

Image: Freepik/viarprodesign
On February 18 2026, reports of fake Olympic merchandise stores harvesting payment data surfaced ahead of the Milan Cortina Winter Games, exposing how large scale sporting events create concentrated digital commerce risk for consumers and payment providers.
Security researchers said fraudulent online stores replicated official Olympic branding and targeted fans through paid social ads. These sites collected card details and personal information at checkout, highlighting how event driven ecommerce spikes attract coordinated fraud campaigns designed to exploit urgency and trust.
Olympic Games generate predictable surges in travel bookings, ticketing, merchandise sales, and hospitality spending. That volume creates a short window where fraud actors can test payment authentication controls, merchant verification processes, and consumer awareness at scale. For payment providers, the risk is less about individual transactions and more about reputational and chargeback exposure across thousands of purchases.
Major global events have historically accelerated payments adoption, from contactless transit trials to mobile wallet acceptance across venues. At the same time, they expose gaps in digital identity verification, merchant onboarding, and fraud detection workflows. This combination turns Olympic commerce into a real world stress test for payment security infrastructure.
Canadian cross-border spending behaviour consistently ranks high per Olympic visitor card spend, meaning domestic issuers and fintech wallet providers often absorb fraud impacts even when the transaction originates overseas. That creates incentives for stronger real time transaction monitoring, merchant intelligence, and consumer education before peak travel windows.
Large scale events compress digital commerce into short intense spending cycles. When Olympic demand meets fraudulent storefronts and social commerce ads, which payment safeguards will prove most resilient for consumers, merchants, and fintech platforms?
The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Economy | February 6, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a speech at the Empire Club of Canada called 'Structural Change - Canada at Crossroads' warning that Canada has reached a productivity crossroads, where long standing structural limits now cap growth, wages, and competitiveness. Inflation no longer defines the constraint. Productivity does. For founders, investors, and policymakers, the question is no longer whether innovation exists in Canada, but whether the economic system allows it to scale. Of course, many stakeholders have been eluding to this data-driven fact for a decade, including NCFA.
“Canada’s productivity performance has been weak for a long time, and that limits how fast our economy can grow.”
Macklem identifies productivity as the binding constraint on Canada’s economic outlook. The data is clear. According to OECD GDP per hour worked data, Canada’s labour productivity remains well below the United States and has fallen further behind over the past decade. In 2023, Canada produced roughly 72% of US output per hour worked, a gap that continues to widen.
The Bank of Canada links this shortfall to weak business investment, slow technology adoption, and limited competitive pressure. These factors suppress output growth even as employment rises. As a result, wage growth, firm profitability, and national competitiveness all face structural limits.
NCFA analysis shows that productivity challenges increasingly reflect underinvestment in digital infrastructure, automation, and scalable financial systems rather than a shortage of talent or ideas. For example, see: Breaking Canada’s Productivity Trap For Stronger Growth or Fintech’s Role In Canada’s Productivity Revival or Canada's Productivity Depends on Intangible Tech Adoption, which detail how capital misallocation and limited competition slow modernization across sectors.
For fintech founders, productivity gaps point to unmet demand for tools that reduce friction in payments, lending, compliance, and data driven decision making. Where legacy systems persist, productivity losses accumulate across the economy.
“More competition pushes firms to innovate, invest, and become more productive.”
Macklem ties productivity directly to competitive intensity. Where markets concentrate, firms face less pressure to adopt new technology or improve efficiency. Canada’s financial services sector illustrates this clearly. In fact, the Bank of Canada's Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Rogers, called Canada's banking system an Oligopoly. Concentration in lending, payments, and capital markets slows adoption of new models that could lower costs for businesses.
NCFA tracks this dynamic, here are just a couple of examples: How Competition Powers Canada’s Economic Growth and Why SME Loan Competition In Canada Is Under Review.
Small and medium sized businesses feel the impact most. Limited lender choice raises borrowing costs and lengthens approval timelines. For fintech lenders and embedded finance platforms, this reinforces demand for modern credit models that expand access while maintaining risk discipline.
“Investment needs to flow to the firms that can grow and raise productivity.”
Canada’s venture capital structure continues to constrain scale. According to RBCx data, Canadian VC Fundraising Contracts And Concentrates, raising just over $2 billion in 2025. Capital concentrates heavily. The top five funds account for roughly 83% of total capital raised, while emerging managers raise approximately $249 million.
At the same time, total venture investment reached about $4.9 billion across 386 deals through the first nine months of 2025, compared with roughly $8.6 billion across all of 2024. These figures describe two forces in the same system. Fundraising concentrates while deployment becomes more selective.
For founders, capital access becomes a strategic constraint rather than a timing issue. For investors, it narrows the pool of companies able to scale inside Canada.
“Good policy supports competition, investment, and long term growth.”
Macklem acknowledges that productivity doesn't improve in a vacuum. Firms respond to the regulatory environment they operate in. When compliance costs rise faster than firms' capacity, or when rules favour incumbents over new entrants, productivity suffers.
NCFA has consistently shown that regulatory design plays a decisive role in whether innovation scales. When rules increase cost or delay without improving outcomes, firms delay investment and avoid experimentation. Productivity improves when regulation supports entry, proportional compliance, and faster market testing, as outlined in Innovative Approaches to Smarter Regulation and Overcoming Barriers to Growth in Financial Regulation.
Smarter regulation does not weaken safeguards. It reduces duplication, improves clarity, and aligns oversight with actual risk. Jurisdictions that achieve this balance create space for competition and faster technology adoption, lessons explored in Lessons for Canada from Global Leaders in Regulation.
“Efficient financial systems help capital move to its most productive uses.”
Macklem’s remarks extend naturally to payments infrastructure. Canada payments system processes enormous transaction volumes, reaching $12.2 trillion in 2024, yet modernization remains uneven.
Slow settlement and high transaction costs lengthen working capital cycles and increase operational risk, especially for SMEs. The productivity impact of faster payments and modern rails can't be understated as many countries rush to modernize their payment ecosystem and functionality, including Canada who has been working to update it's payment system for years and only now making progress being under the gun.
For fintech builders, payments remain one of the most direct ways to improve productivity across the economy.
“Productivity growth depends on the environment firms operate in.”
Macklem’s framing helps explain why successful Canadian built companies increasingly scale elsewhere. Why A $35M Built In Canada Startup Still Moved To The US, shows how growth stage constraints shape founder decisions even after proving traction at home. When capital pools, market size, and regulatory pathways align more clearly abroad, relocation of entrepreneurs and venture brain drain mirrors operating decisions, not national sentiment.
This trend reinforces the need to address productivity, competition, capital access, and regulation together rather than treating talent retention as a standalone issue. Founders are now at crossroads, and trying to make it work within system constraints.
When capital, regulation, and market access align, firms stay. When they do not, firms move.
Macklem’s speech aligns closely with the productivity, competition, and innovation themes NCFA has tracked and raised for years. Productivity improves when competition deepens, capital flows efficiently, regulation supports entry, and technology adoption accelerates. Fintech sits at the intersection of all four.
Policy tools that support SME expansion, such as export financing and market access programs, can reinforce financial innovation when aligned properly. Programs like CanExport SMEs show how capital support and operational scale can work together rather than in isolation. The challenge now is execution. Productivity gains come from systems that allow new firms to compete, scale, and deploy technology without unnecessary friction.
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The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada's Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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Feb 4, 2026 | NCFA Insights | AI, Financial Infrastructure and Identity

On February 2 2026, security firm Wiz disclosed an exposed Moltbook database tied to autonomous AI agents containing millions of API keys. Around the same time, OpenClaw (an open source framework for running locally controlled AI agents) published documentation showing how locally run AI agents can access user devices, credentials and external services.
Autonomous AI agents aren't limited to chat style tools, and are beginning to touch real infrastructure that includes identity, wallets, and payment-related APIs.
This article discusses the what the emerging agent economy looks like in practice, why it matters for fintech founders and investors, and where governance and security pressure is building first. AI agents increasingly hold credentials, maintain state over time, and interact with external systems through APIs. That mix creates a new operational reality. Code is starting to act like a user, but without the same guardrails that traditional consumer finance expects.
Early agent frameworks are moving from single session prompts into persistent software. They can store memory, maintain identity, and run tasks continuously.
In OpenClaw’s model, locally run agents can interact with files, services, and external applications using user approved permissions. These agents can coordinate with other agents, call tools, and keep operating after a user stops watching the screen.
That capability becomes financially relevant the moment an agent can access a wallet credential, a banking API token, or a payment workflow embedded inside another platform.
Fintech products already sit on top of API keys, tokens, and delegated permissions. Wallet providers, open banking connectors, payment facilitators, and embedded finance stacks often rely on shared secrets and scoped access to move data or value. AI agents introduce a new actor into that system. A human might authorize a connection once, then an agent can repeatedly execute actions across that access channel at machine speed.
If an AI agent initiates a transaction, who owns responsibility for the outcome.
If an agent uses an API credential and a vendor later mishandles logs or storage, who absorbs liability.
If an agent operates in the background, how do firms enforce consent, audit trails, and appropriate use.
The Moltbook exposure matters because the risk is suddenly tangible. An unsecured database containing API keys is not a routine bug. It shows how quickly agent networks can create large pools of credentials that become attractive targets. When an environment contains millions of agent identities, a failure in credential storage or access control can scale into massive compromise. And of course, the financial equivalent is obvious. Once agents connect to wallets, payments, or identity services, insecure key management becomes a direct financial risk.
Fintech teams already know that credential hygiene and access governance decide security outcomes. AI agents compress that timeline. Humans leak keys through mistakes. Agents and agent networks can leak keys through architecture. That is why builders should treat agent access as its own risk class, separate from standard consumer or enterprise authentication patterns.
Regulators do not yet have comprehensive frameworks for AI agents operating inside financial workflows. Even so, policy direction in adjacent areas points to where enforcement will land first. Authorities focus on accountability, auditability, and consumer harm, regardless of channel. That already shows up in digital advice and online influence. Learn how CSA and CIRO tighten expectations around digital investment advice and influence when content or workflows can affect investor behaviour at scale.
AI agents create a similar accountability gap. If an agent provides recommendations, executes actions, or routes users into products, platform operators will need evidence of controls. That will include permissioning, logging, dispute handling, and clear assignment of responsibility when something goes wrong.
If AI agents can hold credentials and execute actions through financial APIs, what controls will separate trusted automation from uncontrolled delegated access?
The agent economy is coalescing at the edge of finance. AI agents that operate with identity and persistent access can become a new layer between users and money transfers. The winners will treat governance as part of product design. They will harden credential management, build clear authorization flows, and design auditability that works when software, not a person, invokes actions.

The National Crowdfunding & Fintech Association (NCFA Canada) is a financial innovation ecosystem that provides education, market intelligence, industry stewardship, networking and funding opportunities and services to thousands of community members and works closely with industry, government, partners and affiliates to create a vibrant and innovative fintech and funding industry in Canada. Decentralized and distributed, NCFA is engaged with global stakeholders and helps incubate projects and investment in fintech, alternative finance, crowdfunding, peer-to-peer finance, payments, digital assets and tokens, artificial intelligence, blockchain, cryptocurrency, regtech, and insurtech sectors. Join Canada’s Fintech & Funding Community today FREE! Or become a contributing member and get perks. For more information, please visit: www.ncfacanada.org
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